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To sell 100k treatments a month through the MAP avenue alone would be unrealistic which is obviously why they are still talking to the agencies on approval.
1 in 20 people suffer from long covid and the active EU cases at the minute are over 2 million. 2 million X 0.05(1/20) = 100,000.
That's just for the UK/EU.
Manufacturing capacity and actual sales are very different things. RM is stating the ability to scale. Someone still has to buy them. Don’t mix sales with capacity. The managed access platform is not the same thing as a wholesale channel to market.
dumbpunter - not officially but it was no slip of the tongue as it was on his powerpoint slide too. someone needs to get a copy of that on twitter
same here am waiting for good news with odx to sell them and put more in here. crazy its going down after yesterdays news - 100's of thousands of treatments being produced in a few months that are likely to be 1-2k each. couldnt be in safer hands
just wish i had spare cash to put in here. i would be piling in.
Roger -
I take your point. If MAP is the only route to market then there is no chance we will get anywhere near 200,000 doses.
I optimistically/naively believe that RM will have quantified that number based on all routes to market and therefore must see another route.
Josh,
Thanks for the reply but can you see my point? In RM we trust but 200,000 in hospital a month on sng001 is very high
Roger - 200,000 treatments per month comes from the slides on the RM interview by Sachs yesterday.
Technically it said 100,000s treatments per month.
Scinv - the £1500 per treatment comes from Timbos ADVFN post (well worth a read) as well as other comparable and the OPs link to NHS purchasing of synairgen.
Sigh. I will put the kettle on and have a read of the advfn guild, seems interesting
Josh,
Great workings but can I ask how you view to getting 200,000 per calendar month on sng001? We are finding it hard to fill the home trials. Yes I agree it's different in The trial environment and patient selection criteria but from what I know the clinigen clients need to be in hospital environment too. That's a hell of a lot lof people in hospital that are willing to take it and based in EU. That is where clinigen can push out sng001 right now but more countries to follow. RM can produce 100,000 a month no problem but getting clients is the problem, id be cautious and use 5-10000 treatments a month in calculations until we see actual sales flow and further MAP agreements around the world.
DP.
Incredible. Our dose would be 90 per cent cheaper than anything injected. Good news for the economy!
Not selling any. Haven’t sold any.
If we assume from the NHS link £1500 per 14 day treatment (The US will undoubtedly charge more) and 200,000 treatments pcm for 12 months:
1500 x 12 x 200,000 = £3.6bn per year.
This article claims that the median profit margin for pharmaceutical drug production is 76%.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762308
Now valuing the product is harder. This is where I begin to become creative.
Should it’s licence be for use only in application to corona viruses, perhaps we should look at the profit over next 5 years.
5x0.76x3.6bn = £13.68bn profit
In a licensing deal what % might synairgen get? 25%?
If so then 25% x 13.68bn = £3.42bn
This is equivalent to £22.80 a share.
Please feel free to suggest any issues or corrections to my logic.
GLA -
A value somewhere between £1k to £2 per course of treatment per patient seems to be an unchallenged figure and would in line with Remdes...
Have we any idea of likely cost per treatment? Ballparks?
We have more information on timelines and manufacturing size. We have 2 conflicting reports here of very similar information
1) From the RNS today
Manufacturing Scale Up
In preparation for gaining approvals for SNG001, the Company has made good progress with discussions with a variety of international suppliers to scale up production of SNG001 rapidly, with the aim of being able to produce approximately 100,000 treatments per month in 2021.
2) From Richards interview at the Sachs meeting last week. He was on the Covid-19 therapy chat. 21:15 on the video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOHmVnttowM
Richard and the slide says
100000's (notice the plural) in the new year
From the information we can say Jan 2021 its expected we have 100k treatments at least being produced per month.
Now the price of drugs as we know vary wildy depending on what country you are in. For example Rebif a interferon beta based drug can cost $7000 in USA but around £700 in the UK.
You can see what IFN-B treatments cost in the UK here (UK has some great drug prices with the NHS deals) https://bnf.nice.org.uk/medicinal-forms/interferon-beta.html
So im sure better people at working out revenue models than me but think it around a billion per year depending on where SNG001 is sold.