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U/T, 01-Dec-21 16:35:20 1,503.00 178,670 Buy* 1,500.50 1,502.50 3m
That's a SP of c.£16.79!
The Woodford fund was open-ended which meant that if a large number of investors wanted out the manager had to sell the underlying assets. That was a problem as in effect there was no market for the amount of unlisted stocks which were part of the ensuing fire sale. SMT is a closed end fund, so If a whole batch of SMT investors want to sell there is an interaction with potential buyers who are willing to pay whatever price, but the managers don't have to liquidate parts of the portfolio.
Thanks oldsid, and best of luck to you, whatever you're into now
Your sound Robleo I wish I had hung on but I didn’t good luck to you mate , don’t let anyone get to you your your own man be proud mate .
I was just saying guys that even the best investors can make some bad investments sometimes, at no point did I say I had no confidence in smt or that I thought smt was a bad investment, as bus pass was suggesting, he was picking out certain words and trying to twist them, to make out I was, just a bit over the top I think
In fact I'm very happy with the way my investment is going here so far, and hopefully it will stay that way for some time to come
best of luck to you all
DorsetLSE - I agree that comparisons between Woodford & SMT are of limited value. Woodford made much of his reputation buying high-yield & (at the time) relatively steady-eddie stocks like tobacco companies. The problem came when he started going into unlisted companies which he & his team had much less experience & knowledge about. And the rest, as they say, is history. SMT has generally always had a tech bias with a penchant for unlisted companies it actually understands. That's not to say it always gets it right. No-one ever will. But it has backed the occasional winning 1000-1 shot. Which is "all" you need to cancel out the "did not finish" brigade and still make a handsome profit.
The SMT managers will only invest in an unlisted company if it has a value of over $1bn. If anyone thinks the SMT strategy is similar to that of Woodford, the obvious solution to to sell out asap. I have faith in the SMT strategy as being thought through. I seem to recall a conversation with Tom Slater and he indicated that they get many offers for unlisted investments and take about one in a hundred.
From what I recall from one of the SMT webinars their position is that they act like a venture capital company where they invest in small companies pre IPO. They admit that this is risky and that most of their investments go nowhere but this is far outweighed by the few that make it big, the classic one being Tesla where one report puts the BG outfit making £24bn overall. This of course, relies on a long investment horizon. To some extent this is not that different to the direction Woodford was going in but he had a few things against him like using an OEIC structure, using the Guernsey stock market to get around holdings limits and most of all investing in fairy tale no hope businesses.
The key driver of SMT appears to be whether its 'big bets' will disrupt their sectors. The big bucks they made out of Amazon and Tesla moved the needle. If Moderna/ASML/Illumuna blow away competition, SMT will do well. Seems a shame to miss out on long-term potential for a point of two of premium. If you don't think managers have ability to pick companies with the potential of explosive growth, SMT is not for you.
I personally think SMT is under-exposed to crypto. A couple small holdings in some crypto exchanges/platforms is not really what I consider a proper bet.
VC and SV is pouring cash into crypto right now. "Killer applications" (beyond speculative trading) for it are beginning to show but the way it can integrate into the future metaverse is potentially very exciting and a possible growth area. Just look at Gemini who raised 400mil recently to push their crypto platform toward metaverse.
I know metaverse is a bit cliche right now (and it is) but try not to get wrapped up in the emotions of it. Even if 30% of metaverse ideas going around at the moment turns around to be possible/delivered in the next 10 years then that is a big deal. Metaverse is also wrapped up in the whole "Web3" wave which is coming.
Cardinal,
I like the pragmatic, unorthodox approach of Ruffer and its definitely more defensive than SMT.
Interestingly, it won't have escaped your notice that SMT now have holdings in two Crypto linked companies, one directly and the other more Blockchain focused. That should maybe give us an idea of direction of travel of this theme.
Sorry last word as it's a bit of topic.
Hi Highlander.
I want to diversify for grandsons but Ruffer bought and sold Bitcoin which doesn't to me feel like a sensible 'investment' though it was the reason they had their best performance in 10 yrs. Diversifying sensibly from SMT is the issue at hand. I don't think LSE has a page for such chats which would be useful, and not clog up boards like this.
Remember, it's never a profit (or loss) until you sell! Might look great, sitting on huge % gains. But look what happened to investors who thought that just before the dotcom crash. So if, over time, you can recoup your original stake (letting the rest ride) by monitoring long term discount/premium trends & acting accordingly, why on earth wouldn't you?
Remember, it's never a profit (or loss) until you sell! Might look great, sitting on huge % gains. But look what happened to investors who thought that just before the dotcom crash.
BusPassGuru - I, for one, still have a significant portion of my total wealth tied up in SMT. But that doesn't mean I won't trade a small fraction of it, when I feel the discount/premium to NAV is excessive. Over time, usually retain a similar value overall - divesting a bit when the premium looks frothy, then topping up again once it reverts nearer to the long term average. I don't regard this as day trading. Just judicious financial management. Whilst I don't always get it right, so far it has paid off overall. Particularly over the past 12 months or so, selling a portion above £14.00, then buying back in just a few months later at prices between <£10 + <£12. I did the same recently, selling a bit when the price moved above £15 (and the premium again looked abnormally large). I haven't bought back in yet, as I think markets are generally still looking a bit toppy. But if we drop to <£13, I will.
Similar position Cardinal, I've been looking to rebalance. I have considered Ruffer.
I invested each month for two grandsons for ten years till 4 years ago (they are now early teens) outside the CTF which were maxed out. They are now very well off, relatively speaking, but I will need to steadily take care of their CGT allowances and sell enough slowly over time to avoid them having a tax issue. SMT are over 40% of their portfolios so they do need to rebalance. Nice problem to have but a headache too! I cant decide what to do with the cash they will get and am thinking of it sitting on the sidelines a while.
I am not sure if all of the contributors here have fully grasped the notion of 'buy and hold.' The people at BG are clearly very smart, but they repeatedly state that they have no clue as to short term share movements. Who does? In the next month SMT will probably go up and down, but over a five year period it is likely to go up. SMT managers buy stocks that have the potential to grow significantly and every so often they get an Amazon or Tesla that knocks the lights out. Day traders should avoid this share - and hopefully this forum.
A great deal of short-term worrying from the newer investers. I totally understand but this pretty much doubles every 5 years so dont sweat the day to day. Regular monthly investment will, over time, be the best thing you have ever done. I started in 2017 and I am very pleased. I pay in monthly and top up rarely if I have spare money and feel the shares are cheap (discounted compared to NAV). I wish I bought more when they were £4 a share!
That's an interesting link phixion, thanks, and for those of you invested early 2020, you jammy devils , hope it happens again
All of BGs daily NAVs are listed on their site.
https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/prices/
Lordloads, thanks for sharing that information snd tips, will do some monitoring on that, and see how it works out
Best of luck
robleo - no, they're all the same chart, showing the fund's premium / discount to net asset value. You can go back 10 years or more, giving a good feel for long term trends. When a fund then significantly deviates from this trend, it can be a good time to ask yourself "should I be topping up / divesting a bit?"
Thanks bailey, I'm with hl, was just wondering if he had a specific one, he was referring to
Cheers
Various sources for a premium/discount chart. Here’s a free one:-
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/scottish-mortgage-it-plc-ordinary-shares-5p/share-charts