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Nimrod, always good to hear from you. I'm off to get my arabica as we speak. £1.25 being paid today.... who'd have thunk it! :)
SLP may well rise again today on excellent results and IC plug, but most other share prices still look wobbly and may well suffer some sort of correction. I've been lucky over the last year with substantial profits since the March correction, but its been an almost inexplicable rise in the face of almost endless general bad news. Now that things are looking good with a vaccination led recovery is the market going to be perverse and do the unexpected..... or maybe I'll just have another cup of coffee?
Yes, that's the vid, Bazzaman, although she's not revealing anything new it's quite a dramatic headline to whet the appetite.
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Looks like that Bullish Harami candlestick close last night has decided its behaving inside it's 80% accuracy range at the moment LOL!
(Distribution volume metric still a bit angry looking though, but I think on this occasion candlesticks have shown it the door as they've got back up with other confirmations.
And pleased Stoodio is sticking to the rules. Friday night close is where it's at as the last trading day of Feb.
Happy with progress so far even if Friday night closes here or a bit less it still all fits within the total average for Jan&Feb when the average for both months as a single event are taken into account.
Velo - is it called 'The Most Reliable Technical Indicator I Have Ever Used' by Anne-Marie Baiynd?
BOL
Thank you AF&Games,
Felt I could have offered better( if request was a bit more specific) but too busy tonight; hence back here late checking out other stuff (IC below).
Once you become familiar with a chart site's platform, MACD would suit you well (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) v accurate - and somewhat prophetic.
And you'll never regret Stochastics, but I find it a bit too fast even though I have the slow version. On YouTube there's an American lady who demonstrates it (a very auntie type and if it's still on Youtube she has a clip up called The most accurate indicator I have ever used - and she's right :)
But again, whatever suits - as said I'm not entirely comfortable with it so have alternatives that do the exact same job. And so it goes on. TA indicators that work well then start to irritate and finally you discover something similar that fits your style better - experimentation is the only way.
For instance, there are candlestick patterns with a bullish reading for SLP tonight, but volume has gone into distribution and thus bearish for SLP. Which will prevail? Reading candlesticks regularly shows that far from the books extolling them, I find a 20% failure rate - higher with SLP - but wouldn't be without them :)
The accumulation/distribution indicator is pretty accurate but has a slow burn accuracy like tonight it being bearish against SLP and often half a month expires before the "victim" succumbs to a bearish retrace that was indicated by it.
(It usually stays in distribution until the poison reaches the victim's heart.
Maybe it's related to a poisonous snake :) But I love it.
So I end up using the whole range of my ma trends as my north star - and allow plenty of leeway. They're dead easy too. Trends all the way for me, even though I'm taking in the TA indicators sublimely without being aware, as I concentrate on my fav's - the trend lines.
Thank you very much Velo, really appreciate your answer!
You might not believe it, but I actually really like your answer. I never believed in silver bullets and wasn't expecting one. I simply was following your posts and got intereted in using technical analysis as a support method to fundamentals, to pick up best moments to get into observed stock.
And since there is abundance of materials, I was wondering about the best place to start. Is there a better way to ask TA knight of the board of my favourite stock? :) Also I am still haunted by my memories from uni, where once I failed exam 2 times before someone gave me the right book (50 year old, 3 copies in the library, favourite book of my professor) that was explaining the tricks to aolve the tasks on the exam. Since then I always ask for recommendations before diving into the new field :) So even the info that there isn't a single source of truth and that youtube is good source of info + sharing your experience is super valuable - thank you again!
Concludes >>
. . . And just realised the TA book I had in mind is not about trend lines but only contains a chapter on it - also it's dated 2005 or so :) It's mainly technical indicators but I bought it from eBay s/hand yonks ago for £3 delivered - checking eBay tonight they want a lot so reluctant to advise it. I could get a PDF copy for free but it's getting it to you as a 300+page pdf won't go through email.
In other words although I possess a prodigious amount of investing books, there's no one book that would be "the best" they're just what caught my interest maybe after a mention on the internet or somewhere.
Said you wouldn't like my reply didn't I? :)
Start with YouTube and also search online for free charting sites. Tradingview is popular - but again it doesn't suit me
- but Stockcharts.com fits me like a glove.
Hi AllFunAndGames,
First off, I was dreading someone asking because it means they've seen something, or taken something I've boasted about as "proof" there is some sort of strategy to make money on the stock market. If so that would be a misconception. It's just another tool in addition to fundamentals. (So I need to tone down what I post :)
Also, I'm doubtful of any request that includes giving it a go about all technical analysis. That's like saying - what do you recommend about car mechanics, full electrical vehicle wiring, and repairing vehicle bodywork books, websites and material as I'd like to try it?
I don't bother with 75% of technical indicators, only a few after experimenting on a couple. AND that's what I recommend you do - experiment. Visit a free charting site say Tradingview.com and just experiment - there are instructions on all the free charting sites. I pay subscription fees for programming as well and that site is StockCharts.com a US site so suffixes (.L) needed on UK epic codes. ADVFN and Investing.com also provide charting tools.
Also, you need to already have an interest and already used to roping your way through basic charts, (do you have a favourite free tools chart site? If you're asking you already should have, and not wait like a chick in a nest waiting to be fed:) and already familiar with some technical indicators from random trial and error. I'm self taught 100% from Googling and to this day I'm often up until gone well past midnight reviewing stocks using them. So the desire has to be there, as if all you're seeking is trying something new, you're going to be disappointed. I eat, sleep and sheet them obsessively, and mostly focus on moving average trend lines, and can't recall a specific book on them.
Everything you need , visually, believe it or not - is on YouTube - EVERYTHING! Nothing stopping you - and Googling too! And that's the website recommendation - Youtube!
Just Google anything in technical analysis or "stock market charts" or moving average trends, and all you seek will be there instantly. There is no one way that is better than another, just what suits you better. So trial and error is a must. You can't break anything just get Googling.
A moving average is a moving average. All YouTube does is have presenters saying this is all you need for success. Another will say the same but show a different data range as the best one. If I made a video then the 20 day and 200 day averages would be my 'all you need' video - because it fits my particular style of investing.
And just realised the TA book I had in mind is not about trend lines but only contains a chapter on it - also it's dated 2005 or so :) It's mainly technical indicators but I bought it from eBay s/hand yonks ago for £3 delivered - checking eBay tonight they want a lot so reluctant to advise it. I could get a PDF copy for free but it's getting it to you as a 350+page pdf won't go through email.
Continues >>>
All, F&Games,
Busy now so will try and come back to you later tonight. Dreading a post like yours :) Thought it was going to come from gilo just then.
However will give you one book and one website, (because your post suggests to me you desire the one 'true' source, the one magic silver bullet that will reveal the secrets of universe like no other that has gone before :)
And I already know you won't like my reply or the website but the website is obvious if you think about it - but a book a website and some direction, it will be.
Laters :)
Velo, can you recommend any books/websites/materials about technical analysis? I am completely green, wanted to give it a go :)
Gilo - Quite a variety of instruments, but predominately I rely on moving averages of which I have numerous value time-frame setup's for differing situations.
Thank you for the validatory response Stoodio. Appreciated.
Just wish the same could be said for my actual performance as seem to be stuck in 6 figure portfolios for too long now, with the prospect of ever achieving 7 figure portfolios further away from achieving than ever; partly explained by my timidity of holding far too much cash earning zero.
Hence why I'm here in a precious metal producer - to 'up' my risk/reward tolerance.
@Velo what do you use to identify a trend?
Just checked the seasonality charts after the wee jolt yesterday and they're still up for coming in on budget.
Your 125 is still on the cards Stoodio.
Don't take no for an answer if someone points out you've only got 2 & half days left.
Seasonality data is still singing from the same hymn sheet :)
(Candlesticks are stabbing you in the back though) so it's candlesticks v seasonality duels at dawn.
And is the exact reason I very much appreciate your insights old boy! They offer me brilliantly reasoned insight that I simply don’t follow and I’m very thankful for it as I’m sure others are too :)
" Having been in since 6p the urge to sell and be happy certainly exists in the back of my mind. But I have time on my hands and do not belong to the reddit crew - therefore I shall remain here until I reach my TP then take a view :)"
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Yes exit plans are best thought out in advance.
Here's my selling strategy in which I have no emotional decisions to make :)
Pretty much the bulk of what you say but no TP.
I sell when my trend lines start packing up and rolling up their tents, and start off down the mountain waving back to me, catching my attention to make sure I've seen them moving off.
I stay as long as they do. And I depart when they depart.
(Unfortunately that virtually guarantees I miss selling at the absolute top as they're lagging specialists by nature).
- But usually sell in part-tranches in case I've made a mistake and misread their intentions.
I do have provisional TP's but if the trend lines shake their heads No at me - I'm compelled to obey them and await further instructions.
It only ever all goes wrong when I let human emotional decisions get in the way.
And that pretty much is, I guess, the definition of a Trend Follower :)
For what's it's worth, the rise to £1.20, as usual, happened all too easily for SLP (but also highlights another interesting anomoly for SLP that I've discussed before and is very relevant). This current retracement was somewhat expected (and appreciated) for a further healthy consolidation at these levels, in the run up to what is going to be nothing less than legendary results at the end of next month :)
"past year or so".
Morning Velo, for what's it's worth - the past year or it's been notable (to me) that SLP has come under the radar of far more investors under the current metals climate - and with so few shares in issue, most relatively tightly held and somewhat surging demand, I'm of the opinion (naturally - I'm an investor after all) that we are slowly but surely beginning to realise a more "truer" value based on fundamentals and the consistent "just going about our business" (bl oody well!) mindset of the company. Having been in since 6p the urge to sell and be happy certainly exists in the back of my mind. But I have time on my hands and do not belong to the reddit crew - therefore I shall remain here until I reach my TP then take a view :)
" do you guys not think that based on the simple fundamental view that we are undervalued, are making a sh it tonne of money and the general sentiment regarding PGMs, defecits, lack of new resources and surging demand (for a variety of technologies) somewhat underpins a sustained movement to the upside with a few twists and turns? I do. "
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Morning Stoodio,
In the longer term definitely as all in all, yes I do - and the huge divergence fof the SP from THE major 200 trend line remains just a "concern " as these bullish divergences from the 200 can stay like that for a long, long, really long time.
I believe March to June may not offer the same size of SP increases as has been enjoyed in the historically big months of July/August and Jan/Feb - so for my own sake alone I'm hoping fate takes the somewhat milder route out of my own dilema. But that's all just my 'opinion only'/a concern - and definitely not a change to a bearish turn of mind.
Velo, fully appreciate your views as ever, likewise Nimrod. There's always a ying to the yang. If i've learnt anything overt the past 15 years of investing, it's that there's always always contrarian views that alter thinking and strategies of both private investors and institutions. Some honest, some not so.
So I would ask you both this. With this in mind, and particularly picking up on Velo's very interesting (and somewhat valid - mean reversion theory), do you guys not think that based on the simple fundamental view that we are undervalued, are making a sh it tonne of money and the general sentiment regarding PGMs, defecits, lack of new resources and surging demand (for a variety of technologies) somewhat underpins a sustained movement to the upside with a few twists and turns? I do.
Timely points Nimrod, and also reminiscent of something I alluded to some months back that still concerns me (And also perhaps explains why you posted the other day of part-selling some SLP stock whilst the SP is riding high).
My concern that I posted of awhile back, was that whilst I'm on the lookout for desirable topping-up opportunities on substantial pull backs, I have been somewhat alarmed by the increasing divergence in the stellar performance of the 'runaway' SP from some notable long term bullish trends. Whenever such conditions arise It's always beneficial to keep in the back of one's mind that a reversion to the mean (but still remain bullish) often makes an occurance.
I had determined that a most likely period should that situation accrue, could be in the period from March to June this year. You can never know precisely when such an occurance will take place, just that it's more likely than not, but it's never a rush. The scenario you highlight sounds like that possible catalyst for just such an event.
From my personal POV, the painless way out of such an event is for the SP to become rangebound from March to June so that the longer term trends get a chance to play catch up.
The painful way is, as suggested in your post, that a retrace takes place in the SP and rectifies the situation by the SP retracing down to meet the more powerful, longer term trends and thus reintroduce balance into the universe, and subsequently, the bull trend can then re-continue with more decorum than previously.
The SP is still undervalued in PE terms compared to its industry average and so does offer some protection from the worst effects of your post and the scenario of a mean reversion, which I'm highlighting, too.
Unprepared, and it can be a false bear trap as one could miss out on a bonanza topping-up opportunity due to believing it to be a retrograde step in fortunes, unless forearmed beforehand.
As mentioned last night at 1902 hours: -
"I hope all the metals etc remain on the up for a while, though worry that the movers and shakers will give us a shakedown correction so as to catch out us smaller players"........Maybe its started as most miners were down today, and articles in todays FT are reflecting a possible change in sentiment.
Extract from todays FT...“While calls of a metals supercycle are growing louder, the evidence suggests we’re in the midst of a cyclical overshoot,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. There are similar comments in other financial papers today.