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Trend change here guys - we look like we are in the midst of a squeeze.
Nicely moving up with the FTSE over 2% higher
FTSE is strongly up today, volume was low last Friday compared to normal, due to the long weekend - expecting a gap up this morning and a strong bounce towards results on Thursday.
It appears that stakebuilding is POSSIBLY taking place through third party institutions. JPM, Goldman Sachs and Aberforth hold just under 19% of SIG's shares, all of which have been acquired since 31st December 2019
Although this time last year £2 a share might have been the bid price, with the shareprice at the moment standing at 25p it is highly unlikely at the moment that anyone would bid 4 X that price unless something extraordinary occurs!!
The next bit is my gut feeling and in no way an attempt to ramp the price!!
I would be surprised if a bid didnt come in before autumn at around the 50-60p a share mark and, here is one for you, that bidder to be Kingfisher. Reason for suggesting Kingfisher is that it would give them a wholesale arm to make them all round competitors to Travis Perkins.
Just for clarity, my position with SIG is that I have got a 60% of my portfolio invested at an average of around 22p per share with the intention of holding for around 12 months to make a very substantial gain!! If a bid does not come in over the next few months (as I expect) I will be delighted as if SIG can hang out till next year £1+ a share is more than realistic!
If IKO were building up their stake, then surely we’d see this on the Sig Plc website - which seems to be updating JPM’s position (7.52%). IKO’s position as at 20th May - 14.77%. Unless they aren’t required to disclose.....?
Not sure who big suitor could be if there is one. My thoughts are if IKO build upto 29.9% this could all be done below the price paid earlier this year. It would take the SP upto something more comparable to what they paid earlier. The seat on the board would be vey benificial to them in steering the company in the right direction. If they had bid for this company this time last year the takeover price may have been closer to £2. On that bSis getting the company for £1 a share would be considered shrewd.
What makes anyone think another company is buying in the first place? Out of curiosity and still learning.....
We have not received an RNS confirming who the large buyer is, but I have a feeling this may come to light next week. Now lets enjoy the long weekend!
IKO Building and declaring 29.9% would show a huge statement of intent but surely would only make ultimate purchase considerably more expensive??
Would be more credible if another predator was accumulating at the moment and within 45-50p price range (100%ish premium on current price) taking everything into account would be a rather attractive purchase!!
Thoughts??
Takenonrisk. That is why I have suggested they will build upto 29.9% and pick their time for a full bid in the future. Hope I'm wrong but if there is anyone out there other than IKO we would have known about it by now. Obviously building up fully means a seat on the board for IKO and that way they can start to have an impact on the direction.
2 reincarnated, it would be extremely unlikely that IKO would bid the 94p a share required for a full bid with the share price sub 30p at the moment. As previously stated this does not obviously rule out any other potential bidder.
I would be very surprised if JPM are not stakebuilding for another unknown predator at this price and would be bloody delighted if there is an announcement to this effect next week!
The SP would increase in the buying ''process'' to 29.9% that could take a while or could be done quickly depending on who they get on their side. We cannot even rule out an announcement of a rejected bid with the results.
Surely, they can’t go from c.14% to 29% that quickly??
Can see a similar surge in the SP if IKO build up a 29.9% stake.