George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Agree that PG saw the upside in Fovio. But, if I recall correct, the suggestion to stop giving forecasts was based on one of those periodic fails in Fleet. Hence slashing the valuation SP by 90%. That I'm confident was based on their feeling that SEE's management together with Fleet was the major threat to Fovio being funded and succeeding.
Worth recalling the very original Fleet target numbers assumptions. [Can't be bothered to dig them out but something like 250k units by 2020?? - a guess]. There have been any number of strategy reviews / product problems and reformulations /marketing changes / changes of Fleet boss / changes of CEO. Talk about learning on the job.
PG were right. The Co even then was worth 28p / 30p - but Fleet and shocking execution / naivete discounted all of that to 3p.
Bravo McGlone & team. At this point, imo, if SEE execute the plan then everyone will understand the real reason McGlone & fellow Directors bought shares. I think it is some sort of minor miracle that Fleet is now beginning to take off - especially since the guys now know what they are doing. The potential valuation of Fleet dwarfs Fovio [though Aviation might be huge as well]
Panmure Gorden had a TP of 28p on 2018, I didn't realise it hit 30p, but that was based on the upside from the auto opportunities rather than Fleet as they stated they thought Fleet was a distraction from auto and had zero value. Seems absurd that Cenkos are still regurgitating their 16p. I remember PG also recommended that SEE stop giving public guidance on forecasts and design wins until everyone internally knew what was going on! Perhaps that's why SEE have been less than forthcoming with PR....
Does the $900m RFQ pipeline focus on only the high end auto market, or the low and mid as well ? It's very encouraging that this number (of RFQ's) is expected to increase at a similarly significant rate over FY22.
PM mentioned that they look forward to "closing the current RFQ's and announcing new wins in due course." Is there a deadline by which quotes need to be tendered, reviewed and then appointed across the industry ?
Absurdity - another comment.
Cenkos in constructing the NPV model to arrive at the target SP, assume that SEE's DMS will reduce in selling price as it becomes a commodified. My view is that it will go the other way [as per previous post] ergo the cash flow values used in Cenkos's NPV are erroneously low. [This is without repeating the issue of correct disc rate etc. - or that start positive cash flows are now coming into view which should rebase the NPV model upwards]
I could add also the many other positives but others have already honed in on that. Though my view of the AS$900 is that the value of the rounds of RFQs are only set to rise in value. This jump from the prior one [AS$250m??] is impressive indeed - the logic of increased mkt take up + added product features [HMI etc] suggests the RFQs only getting bigger.
By the by, interesting that Colin Barnden is doubling down on his view of SEE's market dominance. Needless to say, such dominance bestows pricing power and pricing power is the magic for big profits
The TU [fwiw] is entirely positive.
In particular, the sudden jump from 8 T1s to 16 - wow! For most new ventures, effective access to the market is a huge issue. By being in with so many T1s, SEE has perfect access to most of the customer base. The 16 T1s also demonstrate the desirability of SEE's product
Before, I gave Fleet a low score of 5/10. imo Fleet was responsible for the stumbles in the share price. A serial underperformer with a profit warning usually round the corner. Indeed, look back at Panmore Gorden's coverage of SEE, they set a SP value of 30p in their research note - but then slashed it to 3p in the light of the mess in Fleet. It was Fleet that kept the Co coming back for more share raises. It was Fleet that caused the removal of 2 CEOs. Fleet just involved so many moving parts that it kept non delivering. [I still thought think Fleet was a must have (data etc etc) and that fab potential once the numbers kick in].
Now, though, I give Fleet 8/10. Huge jump ahead. Over 35% new fitments increase over the year with more in the pipeline. Despite covid. The KM this morning was another new high. It really is happening.
So my take now has gone very upbeat.