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LL, really sorry you had to decide to sell. Thanks for your thoughts for other Investors. Enjoyed your posts. Hope you at least quadruple your Investment quickly and return . ATVB.
Was the AGM in Nov or was it later last year due to Covid?
Moon and Drac - see my post about those trades as they were mine.
In hindsight I could have scalped as day traders do, but right now I'm glad I didn't sink the share price altogether given the very small trading volumes
Thanks Moonparty, Re, your 11.16 post . You made my point much better than I did. Fingers crossed anyway. IMO.
Moonparty. Totally agree. So I’ve also topped up. 40,144. I just feel lots going on and there could well be news and re-rate. ATB.
Can't believe the sp is now lower than before the ModiFY safety announcement.
Cheeky top-up 80,321 shares at 12.45p
GLA
Hi Bermudashorts
Thank you for explaining the clinical restraint's on information leakage from our clinical trial. To be absolutely honest the news I await is that all of our clinical centres are open for recruitment. That one piece of information would mean everything is on plan to challenge solid cancers in multiple conditions.
To bring about a therapy that can save so many lives, indeed to give back the chance to lead an active life for so many people would be a privilege to have been apart of.
Chester.
I would also add, that it is likely deals were discussed and rejected as LD and the team were not prepared to let the tech go for too small a sum. But this is just my opinion, can't verify it.
So, the initial excellent SCIB1 results didn't lead to a buyout / deal because of a perfect storm of factors:
- they had a buyer lined up, who pulled out late in the process (if I remember correctly because the guys at the top put the brakes on it even though the scientists were keen and due diligence was positive, though I think this info was released much later and informally).
- there had been failures in cancer vaccines in the industry and the pharma zeitgeist had gone cold on them
- it was only a phase 1 trial with limited numbers, and I believe other potential suitors required more comprehensive data. This combined with the change in industry opinion on cancer vaccines made it a more difficult sell.
Completely different situation to now, IMO. If moditope works, Scancell will have no problem attracting suitors in the current climate and with the current trail numbers.
Thanks for that Bermuda - a clear explanation.
Would't I like many more Investors here love to hear on Monday of some sort of buy out or other for a very large sum.
With respect To Team Sclp and All other Pharmas. When I look at the the amount of different tests listed In Clinical trials. All the various conditions explanations etc that have to be adhered to. IS it any wonder and why It takes so long to complete any trial and then be successful. Not a Dig. Just why I mentioned years away. Has Sclp been successful In completing trials on time. Then most Importantly will It turn out like SCIb1, will anybody want It. Sorry If all that sounds negative but just being realistic. Still holding strong and Don't trade the share. AIMO.
Bermuda, that's a great explanation about the constraints on releasing clinical data too soon.
One thing is certain though, and that is, there are a number of possible value inflection points on the way. We shouldn't expect them next Tuesday :-)
I would highly recommend reading the Trinity Delta report. TD think a fair value now is 29 pence based on a great deal of conservatism in their calculations.
As to the timing of the possible value inflection points, it looks likely that these will occur during 2023. However, we may get RNSs on immunogenicity this year on any of the 3 trials.
"Patience is a virtue" is the Scancell PI motto :-)
Chester,
Thanks for your 22.08.
There will always be people involved in clinical trials who will be aware of sensitive information, whether that's the study investigator, the CRO, the company themselves, but all will be aware of their duty to maintain the strictest confidentiality and would be classed as insiders if the information was price sensitive.
Of course, if Scancell are aware that patients are responding, they'll want to communicate that to the market as soon as possible, but good clinical practice and following due process will always be the top priority. Publication of clinical trial data is a complex area and there are all sorts of ethical issues - particularly in ongoing open label trials where the data only comes from very small nos. of patients.
As I mentioned yesterday, we have no idea when patients will be scanned which means that we don't know how long it will be before Scancell are even aware of any tumour shrinkage. It may also be that they will want to see repeat scans after further doses to see whether any response is maintained or even increases before they communicate it out. For all of the above reasons, we need to be careful of expections re. timings of any announcements on tumour shrinkage from the small safety cohort of patients currently receiving the full Modi1 dose.
As others have said, we'll get an update in the annual report and at the AGM and we know the plan is to release immunogenicity data over the coming weeks.
A fair bit of any frustration I may of had has gone with some very good posts this week, namely from Burble, Konar and Bermuda fully explaining the steps we are taking that are needed before accelerating the trials and number of patients.
As far as the SP is concerned I do feel that a fair percentage of the fall from 28p has been writing down the asset value of Covidity. That alone has the ability to correct itself massively dependent on new strains of Covid this winter and good data from us.
C7,
I think you make a great point. Many of us have expressed frustration at lack of news on all fronts. There has to be a substantial update before or at the AGM (which isn't that far off)
Morning C7 / All.
I think any discussion around timings is contextual. More than 1 year (eg. 2+) could be considered as “years” and maybe Drac is correct on some elements of delivery / news BUT we reasonably expect multiple inflection points in a shorter timeframe (as you rightly point out and has been communicated formally by Scancell).
That’s where my head is at anyway!
Morning All, thanks for the posts guys specifically your logic behind timelines.
We have been told that safety and immunogenicity data will still be available this H22022 which could well coincide with the AGM, some 8-12 weeks away.
Dracula...................."""..Sorry but when I hear efficacy data In '23. Covidity Phase 1 Study completion date Dec '22 (Estimated). Everything sounds like years to go yet. AIMO."""
It doesn"t sound "years" away to me fella
Sorry but when I hear efficacy data In '23. Covidity Phase 1 Study completion date Dec '22 (Estimated). Everything sounds like years to go yet. AIMO.
@Chester we will have to agree to disagree on this. A clinical response in 3 patients would not be considered materially significant IMHO
https://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/a-fresh-impetus-in-delivering-immune-oncology-vaccines/
Exhibit 7 in above link. Cohort 2 = High dose.
The original trial protocol had the dose escate in cohort 2 and then introduce enolase peptides in a later cohort. This was condensed to make cohort 2 as above.
Hi KonarA
I have just re-read the RNS and it does not state that the full dose of the ModiTope + Vimentin was given to the 1st Patient in Cohort 2.
I would presume, maybe incorrectly, that Cohort 2 will start with a low dose now the Vimentin has been added. In a months time if all is safe then the Full Doses will be administered. This is my interpretation because it is not stated by Scancell.
Chester.
Hi KonarA and Bermudashorts
All listed companies have a duty of care to protect their shareholders. I have read, been told and believe that in the course of a companies function if something 'Materially Significant' that could affect the SP occurs, the company has a duty to ensure shareholders are informed and not put at a disadvantage by non-shareholders becoming aware of that 'Materially Significant' event.
If something as amazing as a 'Tumour Melting Away' or even 'Tumours Melting Away' during a trial is not reported, those close to that trial would be able to take advantage of that information.
How you square this with waiting 'let's say 4 months' for a data readout to update those who have invested directly in the company I do not know.
Also, Scancell know that this is a possibly because of the mouse model results so they must have discussed this as a possibility and would ensure they know if it is actually happening.
As investors we cannot be put in such a dis-advantageous position.
If you can explain to me how that could happen and not be reported I would be very surprised and shocked.
Chester.
Bermuda, Thank you for the link to the video and for going to the trouble of typing up what Lindy said. It will be useful for any potential new shareholders to watch.
C11 thank you too.
Johnny,
Lindy Durrant has mentioned tumours melting away more than once - an example is below taken from a proactive interview back in 2021 (at about 2.20 minutes in).
'...........and suddenly those cancers disappeared in all our preclinical models. In all our years working with these things we've never seen anything like it, even big bulky tumours just melted away. So we're really excited that if we get into patients now and they just do a fraction of what they've done in our model system, we should make a big impact on some of these patients'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2n7Nh0BBAo
@Berm - you nail the point far better than me. I
It's about expectations. If investors think that a clinical response in cohort 2 will result in a daily mail headline, then anything less will be met with worry. The results will be reported by Scancell only when the science is solid, confirmed and repeatable (and I am basing that opinion on their track record).