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Hasiba,
Good balanced post from a seasoned and dare I say successful investor?
" I am confident this is coming soon to push the sp much further but not the ridiculous assumptions of £8+ Some posters trying to “ramping “it....Mr market is watching but put current sp at 23p for a good reason and there is hardly any interest when you look at trading daily volumes...."
We need to differentiate between the virus drifts and virus shifts and the latter is more like a new virus while the first (drifts) is mutations which is usually minor and responds well to the current vaccines but the bigger mutations can “relatively “evade the vaccine and results to less efficacy like what we see now with SA and Kent variants .
If the virus shifts then we are facing a new virus pandemic but this has not happened yet..and no one found any shift in Covid19 yet ...luckily
C7 I think most of us would agree on those points though on Covidity some think post ph1 ...me I think soon as!... Anyways so long as no more timeline slips and like I said before we are Q2 now so it is time to initiate those planned trials or once again we slip...and sp with it!
indeedy just by following up to date liks from your link we get
'CDC is closely monitoring these variants of concern (VOC). These variants have mutations in the virus genome that alter the characteristics and cause the virus to act differently in ways that are significant to public health (e.g., causes more severe disease, spreads more easily between humans, requires different treatments, changes the effectiveness of current vaccines).'
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html
Well there are two points hasiba makes which I agree strongly with......................
""Sclp must move on fairly quickly now....this is my point"".
And something I have always thought.................
|""Sclp needs to speed the process of finding a suitable partner to achieve its covidity goals in time..
to be relevant and on the top of other competitors..or at least to have a good slice of the cake so we can all enjoy it..||"".
Yes..really and most definitely..
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-long-does-immunity-last-after-covid-19-what-we-know
Yeah I prefer this SKY article :)
'Professor Lindy Durrant, an immunologist at the university and head of the spin-off company ScanCell, said the next generation of vaccines needs to be better prepared to tackle the virus as it "learns" to evade the immune system.
"What has happened was predictable," she exclusively told Sky News.
"We have the advantage of learning from the inadequacies of the first generation of vaccines to make the second generation better."
The three vaccines currently in use are all based on the genetic sequence of the spike protein, which the virus uses to latch onto human cells.
But mutations in the spike protein have emerged that have allowed new variants to spread rapidly in the UK, South Africa and Brazil. They may make existing vaccines less effective.
The Nottingham vaccine includes the spike protein, but also part of the "nucleocapsid" protein, a sheath that envelopes and protects the virus's genetic material. It mutates at a much slower rate.
"It doubles the chances you win over the virus," Prof Durrant said.
"The chances both will mutate at the same time is unlikely."
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-vaccine-in-development-has-insurance-against-virus-mutations-12217119
I don't think the Gov is taking for granted this pandemic is close to over.... insurance needed
The Sky reporting is based on UCL's Dynamic Causal Modelling of COVID-19. It is based on assumptions that prior infection or vaccination provides sterilising immunity, neither of which are true.
https://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/covid-19/forecasting/
https://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/covid-19/
Really!
' In the summer of 2020, this nursing home reported 25 positive cases of Covid-19. Several months later, from October to December, the same facility reported over 100 cases, with five testing positive for the second time. While only three of the five experienced moderate to severe symptoms of the first infection, all five did the second time around. One reinfected resident was hospitalized and succumbed to their illness.'
I don't think we can suppose what variants will emerge just because we want the best ones.... So we need insurance .... as for partners I agree infact on whole pipeline sooner or later and hopefully sooner scancell need to get with partners with the ability to advance products all the way..... it has been a failing here for since forever!
Reinfection of previous Covid19 infected sufferers is rare and is not as relevant as they have already acquired strong immunity and the new infection would not affect them severely but most likely will pass like a mild infection that doesn’t need active treatment ...
Sclp must move on fairly quickly now....this is my point
Sclp needs to speed the process of finding a suitable partner to achieve its covidity goals in time..
to be relevant and on the top of other competitors..or at least to have a good slice of the cake so we can all enjoy it....otherwise keep your focus on its other valuable products which I like most..with a cherry of Covid19 vax it would be even tastier!
What would be the best insurance against having to go back into lockdown if a or many variants emerged that could reinfect previously infected and elude current vaccines... a more 'universal vaccine' Like I say to me pandemic is not over and Gov's are looking for insurance as the last thing any one wants is back into lockdown!
Covidity has legs.
That is great however that does not factor in emerging variants that can reinfect... a real thing
Like I say I hope it is the beginning of the end of the pandemic however I would not be too confident and as it says in that article
Han**** told LBC: "I was told by some scientists that we were going to have herd immunity in May and then in June and then after that.
"What I prefer to do is watch the data. We have set out the roadmap. The roadmap is really clear. It is our route back to normal."
He added: "I think we have taken the right course in plotting our way to freedom and doing it carefully because we want it to be irreversible."
Crumbs..” TBH and obviously one day there would be a natural herd immunity to CV19 but that could take generations...”
Then read this...
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-set-to-reach-herd-immunity-milestone-within-days-say-scientists-12269405
'Covid-19 Reinfections Are Real And Serious—All The More Reason To Be Vaccinated'
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/03/10/covid-19-reinfections-are-real-and-serious-all-the-more-reason-to-be-vaccinated/?sh=49cca60c12e2
'While rare as of yet, reinfection cases seem to have more intense symptoms on average. A recent report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) details reinfection in a Kentucky elderly facility. In the summer of 2020, this nursing home reported 25 positive cases of Covid-19. Several months later, from October to December, the same facility reported over 100 cases, with five testing positive for the second time. While only three of the five experienced moderate to severe symptoms of the first infection, all five did the second time around. One reinfected resident was hospitalized and succumbed to their illness.'
The pandemic ain't over the need for more effective vaccines is not over either... I agree to disagree... really hope you are right TBH and obviously one day there would be a natural herd immunity to CV19 but that could take generations....So Covidity still has its potential role to play
hasiba
Are you suggesting that if we continue with the UK vaccination regime, once complete the Virus will (effectively) simply burn itself out?
That sounds a little at deviance to what I understood the position to be, but if correct it really is very good news.
I thought things were a bit more difficullt than that but am very happy to hear different.
Thanks for your input on this.
Crumbs...I really don’t agree with you
The virus naturally mutates to survive and the more mutations happens the weaker it gets as more of these mutations are minor. The current vaccines are showing efficacy against all variants to some degree and over 50% and if you put this in contest with for example the common influenza vaccine that is achieving no more than 60% efficacy currently tgen one realises that the current vaccines efficacy against the variants is not bad at all.
Go and look at all other countries including the ones without the vaccines availability ..their infections are higher but deaths are much lower than the peak of last year ..simply because the virus is getting less virulent and herd immunity is getting established gradually..
Covid19 showed drifting but No shifts so we are lucky so far...
More infections with less death and less hospital admissions =less virulent Covid19
By next summer we will have a different conversation for sure..and the pandemic may end or we see tge beginning of its end..
As simple as this....
GL
Absolutely moon I guess if there is a sweet spot of being a deadly virus this one has found it ... highly transmissible and does not kill enough of its hosts fast enough to drive itself to extinction... it can afford to become more deadly than it already is and that seems to be happening in some variants how long it takes for our immunity to be able to handle it and it becomes less deadly who knows.... could be decades which of course is where vaccines come in and so far the vaccines are probably doing better than ever expected but the war has only just begun
Sadly there is no obvious mechanism for mutations getting less lethal. Ordinarily if a virus kills a large proportion of its hosts it will become less dominant then those that don't kill or kill a smaller proportion of their hosts. Basic natural selection - if they kill the thing that sustains them there is nowhere to go. And also, if a virus is very deadly humans get scared and take precautions.
But when it only kills a very small proportion of its hosts, and crucially, is a relatively mild illness in most cases, the mechanism for it getting less deadly does not exist.
This is what makes it so dangerous.
Some variants indeed will be getting less deadly in probably in the long term those variants will dominate.. however that is not the case right now indeed more deadly variants are appearing...
'Results The mortality hazard ratio associated with infection with VOC-202012/1 compared with infection with previously circulating variants was 1.64 (95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.04) in patients who tested positive for covid-19 in the community. In this comparatively low risk group, this represents an increase in deaths from 2.5 to 4.1 per 1000 detected cases.'
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579
There is going to be a C19 need to vaccinated against variants for the foreseeable and boosters against emerging variants Covidity still has a vital place and has full-on game-changer potential for scancell as a successful Covidity validates not just ImmunoBody but Avidimab and a whole new DNA vaccine delivery which in itself opens up and adds huge value ...
All living in the real pandemic world that.
Covid 19 virus will be getting less virulent in time like any others in the same group of viruses. This has been shown in many countries now even without implementing the vaccine yet, more infected people but far lesser deaths because of lower virulence Covid19 mutations,and many predicted by next summer Covid19 severe infections will become far less and some is more comparable to mild influenza..but will stay with us for many years still.
Then in reality sclp vaccine will be more relevant now but not necessarily so at the same relevance in 12 months time..
I am more interested in their other products at present ,and covidity in the next six months or so but not so excited later like in a year time when Covid19 becomes less virulent in comparison.
Partnerships now with other pharma is far more important to get moving faster and prove their vaccine efficacy and safety and I am confident this is coming soon to push the sp much further but not the ridiculous assumptions of £8+ Some posters trying to “ramping “it....Mr market is watching but put current sp at 23p for a good reason and there is hardly any interest when you look at trading daily volumes....
Get real guys...and no Deramp from me as I still hold significant numbers here but we all need to live in the real world!
GL and looking forward to my sp target at 60p first...