The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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The Government have a limited window of opportunity to develop their gas reserves for the benefit of the people and they know it. It was spelled out for them in a book published in November 2019 "Governing Petroleum Resources: Prospects and Challenges for Tanzania"
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337534863_Governing_Petroleum_Resources_Prospects_and_Challenges_for_Tanzania
It's Green lights all the way at the moment.
"The East African country is desperate to unlock as much as $30bn in foreign investment but also to escape the energy transition, or the rush to decarbonize that could render its enormous gas reserves useless."
The above excerpt is without doubt the most encouraging paragraph I have read from the Tanz Gov in the past 8 years.
Although this may be the sentiment & words from one person, all it would take is an environmentalist movement or elected a official to reset the landscape back. So I am not going to read too much into it.
According to the interview the Gov will continue to engage in talks with hopes that actions will be implemented & infrastructure investments starting in 2023. That is still in line with "first gas" in 2025, possibly earlier in mid 2024.
If the appetite for acreage in Tanz now starts to increase, that will change my opinion on whether a Ruvuma sale will come. To me it feels as though Solo/Scirocco and more importantly we the shareholders have dragged these Ball & Chain assets for over 10 years with little return. To see Ruvuma turn into a monster gas producer for Scirocco to have exited Tanz completely would be a kick in the teeth as far as I am concerned & another lost Gas Deal. So if a sale is on the cards, I would want to be higher than the £20M ballpark suggested by TR.Â
Right now Gas & LNG is more valuable than Biogas. So selling out of a high margin commodity to own a lower margin commodity may make ethical sense but not financial sense. Unless the G8 countries all sign legislation that a percentage of combustion engined vehicles or domestic heat generation need to run on Biogas by a particular date, I don't see a mass movement to switch in the near future.
Up to this point, my view has been that Scir should exit Tanz completely ASAP. However if the Gov now want to develop its resources & after years of stalling, want to fast track gas production then I would rather Scir keep a percentage as a passive revenue stream maybe a in "free carry" format.
Put me down for E , A and E in that order.
Although I do wonder if Kiliwani could be worth keeping.
Morning Frank.
A good week.
The closing sp should revert to 1.20 plus first thing on Monday.
Imo your figures are too low.
We have helium one shares and cash at bank which in total about £2 million. Investment in Biogas another million plus. So about .5p without sale of Kiliwani and Ruvuma. A $30 million sale would be about £23 million so about £26 million in total. I would calculate 3.5p a share minimum.
Of course we can probably assume that once the sale money is received the biogas etc business should grow to many times its current size within a few months. This should also be priced into the sp. Difficult to call as really depends on the Ruvuma/Kiliwani deal and what is received and if it is a complete or part sale/farm out etc.
Drizzle here at the moment and so much to do outside.
I also like to say I`m not into ramping a SP to crazy levels as you only get found out once if you do and why I set originally HE1 at 10/11p and we all know what that went upto LOL, if the board raises there share options from 1.3p (based on 30/09 audit) to 2.5-3p then I feel that is more align with Shareholders, what do folks think ??
I do feel of course they will get the SP over 1.30p no problems to exercise there 9 Million shares but won`t choose to cash them in until the assets have been sold or we are going to drill, I`m going to re-email them as this was the last response I got and I don`t want them to use any old excuse to get out of putting money into their own project or raising the Share Option really !!!
"I passed on your comments re director buying which they said they would take into consideration. That said, there are factors that impact Directors ability to buy shares such as inside info etc"
Is this KN1 news and it was a excuse or something else, being than I`m running the Telegram Group and yes I want to make money I waited long enough I have to be transparent with members and Shareholders which by the way we need more members:- shorturl.at/yEHIV
I also like to say I`m not into ramping a SP to crazy levels as you only get found out once if you do and why I set originally HE1 at 10/11p and we all know what that went upto LOL, if the board raises there share options from 1.3p (based on 30/09 audit) to 2.5-3p then I feel that is more align with Shareholders, what do folks think ??
I do feel of course they will get the SP over 1.30p no problems to exercise there 9 Million shares but won`t choose to cash them in until the assets have been sold or we are going to drill, I`m going to re-email them as this was the last response I got and I don`t want them to use any old excuse to get out of putting money into their own project or raising the Share Option really !!!
"I passed on your comments re director buying which they said they would take into consideration. That said, there are factors that impact Directors ability to buy shares such as inside info etc"
Is this KN1 news and it was a excuse or something else, being than I`m running the Telegram Group and yes I want to make money I waited long enough I have to be transparent with members and Shareholders which by the way we need more members shorturl.at/yEHIV
Nice choices Chris and if anyone else does it I feel November will be the month of joy for Shareholders depending on how you feel, it is a tough choice I feel for some long term holders here in the respect if you are at the high end of the SP do you average down to make a profit or just hold in the hope AD other assets bail you out its a choice that I`m fortunate not to be in as I`m in profit now overall again despite buying in at 1.44 before, because of the UT we would of had 4 days in a row and if there is no selling on (Monday) but buying it will be up on merit, fair value to me is 1.30-1.50 whilst we wait for news and final SP on news will be dependant on the kind of deal stuck so my prediction is if the asset is sold of course: for $20 Million (1.75-1.85) $25 Million (2.10-2.20) $30 Million (2.52-2.62) does anyone think I been a bit mean or over inflated the probably SP on event ???
I'll have to leave the content until the weekend,on the Town tonite seeing a Small Faces tribute band,
Showing my age now.
Seems like more fun than some of the dribble from he who should not be named :0)
1.0 (F) March
2.0 (B) November
3.0 (D) $30 Million (For Both)
Have a great weekend ALL. It's looking very promising here for the first time in a very long time!
Wanted to select "Locked and loaded" but I could only put buy.
Three questions for the weekend folks on how you think things may pan out and I was tempted to pick (A) on Question 2 but I know how long it taken so far to get these boxes ticked thus far so here goes, please try to be realistic as well LOL !!!!
1. when do you think the board needs to sell our asset by to therefore not be forced to participate in the drill or tell Shareholders we are going to the drill ??
(A) October
(B) November
(C) December
(D) January
(E) February
(F) March
2. When will we have news of a potential buyer for our asset ?
(A) October
(B) November
(C) December
(D) January
(E) February
(F) March
(G) Never
3. What would Shareholders be happy to accept bearing in mind the board will now sell this asset off ??
(A) $15 Million (For Both)
(B) $20 Million (for Both)
(C) $25 Million (For Both)
(D) $30 Million (For Both)
(E) $35+ Million (For Both)
(F) Half Cash Above $10 Million (Any Amount) and Stake in Drill
(G) Half Cash & Half Shares In Wentworth (Any Amount)
Frank`s Choices:-
1. (C)
2. (B)
3. (F)