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NicetoMichu Thanks for your comments - its' good to hear a variety of views. I agree that at the moment both II's and indeed PI's (through ETF's as well as individual shares) are pulling out of the O&G sector. The question is what happens when the already very wide valuation gap for O&G stocks becomes more public, will II's or PI's do anything about it? Will the 'value' play for O&G come back into fashion? I believe that it will but it may take time. However, what reassures me here is future global supply and demand projections for oil. I am bullish on this over the xt year never mind 2 (unless we see a global crash). Oil usage has grown quite a bit in the last 2 years and US shale growth is slowing quite significantly this year. As well as Nigeria gas income being largely underwritten, oil price recovery I believe will drive investors back into this sector. We may not get back to pre-2015 levels but we don't need to do that to see the kind of valuations Zengas has carefully constructed.
You are indeed Yacht master. And a variety of opinions offered give balance and make the best BB's imho.
Fine post Zengas. You've probably forgotten more about this stock than I'll ever know. And a few other posters here too are that good, which is very helpful indeed and very much appreciated.
I'm interested in macro more than micro and practice active trading alongside an underlying buy and hold strategy across a large number of names. And a lot of that trading is sadly to get me out of holes that inevitably arise when you play a p/f of many high risk holdings, all towards looking for a few big wins make up - and more - for the plenty of bad picks too)
PS: To me the fact the II's don't like this sector generally at this time - and at future times as much or even more so perhaps - is a very big problem for all names in it, no matter how seemingly good the fundamentals are .. so versus what it took to make a billion or two market cap co. pre for eg 2015, it takes factorially more now.. and much of the assumptions in the bullish s/p predictions analysis I see across AIM BB is still living in the pre 2015 world imho.. Also I offer that people should never forget that ''It's Nigeria (and Niger )'' is perceived as a bad thing far more than a good thing by an awful lot of Investors and hence becoming a £2bn mkt cap co for eg will be much harder again for SAVP imho.
One problem that this stock will always have : It's Nigeria (and Niger) and that will
NicetoMichu, likewise I am entitled to my opinion as well!
I can't see any reason to value Amerisur at 50p or a £1 with 1215m shares in issue - ie £600m - £1.2 billion. 19p is circa £230m.
Unless i've missed it but last time i looked they had around 22 mmbo P2/6,900 bopd and $46m cash so unless theres going to be a material change in reserves, i can't see those kind of targets though it's easy to say 50p and 100p without explaining why. You only have to look at the valuations of Parex, GeoPark and GranTierra and what Amer has doesn't come close to either three, so can't see either of those targets.
Back to Savp - i think i've given a fair explanation of where i see it, doesn't bother me if anyone has different opinions and doesnt want to sift through the chaff for the wheat.
If someone had said it was fanciful to think we would have 100% drilling success so far - it's reality and once we get going again in Niger, i beleive similar ongoing success will be achieved and those reserves will add up whether oil is $40 or $70/b and we get $4-$6/b for it in terms of reserves.
One of the best basins with world class potential and as many have said, opportunities for ***multiple repeatable success***. I haven't been remotely counting on the entire risked mid case 2.8 billion bls coming in.
Likewise i'm not here for major production, wasn't in IEC or Cove and some others - the opportunity is to find low risk bls that can be transformational to the company valuation whether it produces significantly or not.
To be midly bearish on oil and gas in that 2 year window is completely fine, but part of the investment rationale here is that gas is largely unaffected due to contracts and built in price escalation with investment grade payment guarantees and there is also a significant opportunity to slash the use of very expensive diesel while selling gas at even greater prices than present so i don't share the view to be bearish on gas. In fact we've got one of the biggest market opportunities for gas in Nigeria.
Lastly i'll say SAVPs got all the ingredients for a £2b+ value company. Maybe some posters should say why it hasn't. There's plenty of £2b+ m/cap companies and some with debt in the $2-$3b level out there.
There that's cleared that up - we all have SAVP and want it to do well - some are bullish all the time some vary and others are in but wary others are getting carried away - the more the merrier as far as I am concerned.
Snaffleman - the grandkids sold JLP at 4.62p and now have everything in here (100%). They are hoping to sell half here somewhere between 35p and 45p and put it back in JLP at somewhere close to 4p - or so they tell me lol. The eldest is 7 on Saturday, the youngest is 4 - he was born just before I took a quick short term punt on this prospector.
I guess you're moaning about me Yactmaster.
Firstly, the s/p was 27p odd when I posted and I said in that post that I'm broadly in line with Kalan's view of looking for 35p short term an 75p medium/long term. How on earth is that 'doom and gloom' ??
Secondly, I'm entitled to an opinion as much as you are.
Generally, I have indeed been expressing worry on various oiler s/p's going - further - down for much of this year and sadly I've been far more right than wrong, eg Trinity and President recently. And I do hold - long only - positions in all the stocks I post on, sadly in plenty of cases.
Altogether, I believe you are a member of the biggest majority group on these boards : ''Either tell me what I want to hear or you have no business posting on 'my' board.'' eg There's a guy on Amerisur currently who gets smashed from all angles for predicting a 22p take out, yet guys posting 50p to £1 predictions get loads of ticks up, back slaps etc and I'll repeat here what I have said there: those uber bulls will end up being significantly too bullish imho.. so lets see ( and if they're not fine as Amerisur is my biggest bet .. SAVP is my second biggest bet btw)
No need to apologise. Lets just hope for an RNS tomorrow or Monday saying 7E RTO completed and $74m+ in the bank. Then the fireworks can begin. GLA.
OK apologies if I got the wrong end of the stick. Good luck on all your investments
Kalan, yes very funny. However, I have been onboard for about 2 to 3 years now.
Snaffleman, when are you going to understand both Kalan and I were not talking about you. You put your hand up to posts that were not about you.
Your statements about me are utter rubbish I have only posted on 2 o+g stocks in the last few years both of which I have been very positive that is SAVP and SDX. The vast majority of my posts on SAVP have been positive as where my SDX posts until the CEO lies were exposed and I was forced to exit on a significant loss. I briefly posted negative views on AFC which reflected my genuine but I my intimate knowledge on the history of that stock made some hostile to me and that is the issue here I believe. I have a large investment in SAVP and believe that ZENGAS target SP is achievable so that's pretty positive.
Oh and by the way thanks for he supportive comments Kalan your a gentleman. I have seen instances where people have completely unjustifiably critised you which you never deserved. I believe that you have done your grandchildren a big favour by investing in SAVP and Jubilee on their behalf I am considering buying some SAVP for my grandson. Now Yachtmaster I have had enough of your comments about so zip it.
Okidoki Yachtmaster - fair enough - he is invested though and tells it how it is. The negative posts keep us honest and make us look realistically at what we are buying. Over the years Michu has not been a negative poster - he may be a bit down given that he specialises in a sector that is out of favour and repeated good news brings no rewards and every bit of bad news takes one of the oilies down - so maybe we all cut each other some slack - good to have you onboard (see what I did there - yachtmaster - on board - oh please yourselves).
Kalan - I just get fed up with him posting on the O+G boards that I own stock in spreading doom and gloom about O+G stocks being out of favour as if we don't already know that.
Yachtmaster Agreed. And the more they pay the more likely we have a rising investment here (if we can think medium-term in AIM terms ie next week!). VWAP won't drop much if we close the transaction in a day or 2 given that volumes are well down.
Z - the debt holders who are getting the shares benefit and must be paying the MMs.
I like snaffleman - genuine opinions given in my experience. There are some real c..ks on bb's but we are lucky here and at JLP with the quality of posters - wait until this is on the fastest riser alerts and then see what flotsam and jetsam turn up then.
That should have read "I was not talking about you Snaffleman."
I was talking about you Snaffleman. I placed spread bets at 12p and 16p.
Div We've had significant buying since last week - agreed. I use RSP on L2 on and off through the day to get a more realistic feel for what real buys and sells are going through although of course the MM's try to obscure this whenever they can. I'm confident we have had considerably more buys than sells over that period. If the MM's are short and don't have access to a pool of shares on completion we would see a rise - nothing is certain on AIM however.
Z - it’s worth noting that yesterday we had ‘non protected portfolio single protected transaction’, therefore a lot that were perceived to be sells were in fact buys, including my own.
Agreed Yachtmaster I am a pessimist but my average here is 16p so happy days. I don't post on the AFC bb as any sincere negative views are met with a volley of abuse. I am an ex holder who bought in 2011 when Ian Balcin promised that the technology would result in orders by the end of 2011. Look I have no AXE to grind and wish AFC all the best on your investment but even a mention on another BB and its instant personal criticism. Lets leave the off topic and I wont post anything on the AFC Board
Yachtmaster I have no doubt that MM's are being rewarded for pushing this down. From a quick scan today I estimate 350k buys and 275k sells (of which 3x 50k look suspiciously like MM drop-ins as we have seen in the last few days). So more buying than selling and the sp drops, along with vwap. I wonder who benefits from that?
SAVP will issue US$37mm of shares on completion (for the SSN and Stubb Creek purchase) at a price based on 5-day VWAP – at the current share price this would be approx 107m shares (current basic shares outstanding of 880mm). This once stood at 160m shares when the Hannam&Partners originally released their latest note of SAVP.
It makes perfect sense given the number of shares that are to be issued to watch L2 and see how smart the algorithm is in keeping the price down, it’s fascinating.
We know that the market makers have not been playing for some time now and that in my opinion on completion of the transaction will change.
It is reasonable to argue that with Friday’s RNS providing the court date that the share price already reflected a positive outcome.
You could argue that O&G is out of vogue, but I would argue that contracted guaranteed income, a healthy balance sheet and monthly free cash flow which is significant in comparison to total market cap is very much what the market is looking for, irrespective of sector.
Based on my calcs, with the company having to pay the FG tax by Saturday, it won’t be long now and our patience will be rewarded, we might even get an intraday or RNS tomorrow to clarify completion.
Time will tell, and we can be assured with less dilution due to a higher VWAP that the broker revisions will only go one way.
Hi yachtmaster - it may look like a mutual appreciation society when I say this but nicetomichu is in lots of oil stocks and has been for years. He spreads his risk across lots of oilies with the plan to run the winners and cash out on the disappointments. If he says that oilies are out of favour then I would tend to believe him and respect his opinion. The fact that he owns SAVP gives me confidence as I rarely venture into the oilies due to their fickle nature.
AIm is awash with folks chasing the big winner rather than investing.
I top sliced my JLP and haven't bought back because of past experience with the 'crowd' - they come they go - so buy when it looks out of favour and sell when everyone is singing the praises.
Charts help - JLP looked set to stumble on 4.7p and it did - twice - the crowd will go and it will become cheap again. SAVP's chart indicated a drop back to 26's and maybe 25's at a push - the news would seem to blow that out of the water but it hasn't. My thinking is that the market makers will tempt out sellers with a little drop and then sell to the bargain hunters - they need to do business. The 'crowd' haven't got whiff of this yet but they will. Holding - no more top up cash available.
I wonder who is paying the MMs to drop the price for the 5 day average.