Tim Watts, CFO at Shield Therapeutics #STX presenting at our Life Sciences Investor Briefing Watch Now
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Added another 50k here taking me well over 300k in shares now for the long term . Still well under deal placing @35p and more than enough headroom for the very recent 28p cash raise.
Anybody buying at these levels is head and shoulders better off than some decent institutional investors
Jammy buggers who bought at circa 12p. Unfortunately I was in too early!
Wake me up at 29p.
Me too. Those discoveries are in the sweetest spot (100% success rate compared to the Chinese at circa 93%).
With the sheer amount of oil generated from the source kitchen and expelled throughout the basin imo it bodes well for deeper discoveries also.
Savp still want to remain operator one of the reasons they are not at the mercy of someone elses timetable.
Z - thanks and am looking forward to more info coming out from SAVP re the PDSM analysis. I know that a lot of data crunching has been going on and SAVP are very excited about this. I guess this will all be part of discussions / negotiations with potential partners. Will be interesting who becomes operator with any deal.
Should add that from memory the Chinese were concentrating on the Sokor Alterances because well drilling was an average of 3 weeks and around $3.5m/well.
I think it was 2017 news began to filter out more about the deeper potential and I can remember specifically a broker reporting from an African press article about 2 deeper discoveries made by the chinese with around a couple of hundred million bls.
typo, 19.72 - I wish I had got them at 9.72!....;)
Thanks to Trek's logic (which makes perfect sense), I've had another 50k (shares) @ 9.72p. Obviously wish I'd bought more at the recent low of 12p but more confident buying more now that MC has been granted. Onwards & upwards!
From 109 discoveries, Oil pay was found in -
Upper Sokor = 6.
Sokor Alternances - 103.
Donga 1 (deepest).
1 pinch out stratigraphic oil discovery in trapping shales.
Bushiya targets primary Sokor Alts. Secondary Upper Sokor . (S.A discovery)
Amdigh, Kunama, Eridal, Zomo ditto re targets/discoveries.
From memory and without re-reading the CPR i think it was expected that these were the only viable targets in those wells at anticpated drilling depths at the time. It's possible that the lower yogou (not upper) overlapped as potential Upper Sokor potentail ie secondary target as these are in very close proximity in some of the wells.
What's most interesting is from 3 of the discoveries they said this in October last year "PSDM is also anticipated to significantly enhance the 3D imaging of the as yet un-drilled deeper Cretaceous aged Yogou and Donga exploration targets identified on the existing data set (including potentially significant structures underlying Savanah Niger's Amdigh, Bushiya and Eridal discoveries)." So they definitely didn't drill into all potential targets.
The Yogou is the 2nd biggest in terms of the number of discoveries but it too is only lightly touched to date in the basin.
So additional targets yet to reach as well as potentially 'significant' deeper structures still to drill below the existing discoveries.
Z - thanks again for your extremely knowledgeable and very balanced posts, no ramping just pure facts.
Just a quick one. With regards the 5 successful drills last year, didn’t we drill deeper than the Sokor Alternances on one or more drills? From memory we did but I don’t recall reading any information as to the outcome of those. What did they learn? Would they have to have informed the market if they encountered net oil pay etc.
I firmly believe the deeper targets will very much come in to play soon but will clearly come with higher drilling costs than the previous 5 @ around $4.5m per well.
Finally have the Chinese had any success within the ARB at deeper plays than the SA’s?
Previous presentation (5) highlighted signficant gas sales growth potential upon acquisition of additional upstream gas resource. (Intend to buy more gas assets - current fields most likely guarantee/satisfy long term supply agreements to existing contracted anchor customers). Some use of future free cash flow for additional reserves.
On Significant spare infrastructure capacity (24) -
The gas processing facilities have circa 25% upside for gas throuput versus current contracted volumes. (Beyond that i beleive bolt on/modular expansion system ?).
Pipeline delivery network has 160% additional throughput availability.
40 TCF undeveloped gas located in the surrounding area (6.6 billion boe).
With Siemens etc/contracts awarded recently to deliver more infrastructure - Savp slide 24 shows projected electricity demand to grow significantly under "huge energy demand forecast".
Accugas is the only significant gas processing and transportation system in the South East of the country - would cost in excess of £1 billion just for infrastructure to play catch up for a competitor and likely pointless and why ?.
Compelling switching economics (never mind environmental) from diesel @ $10/mcf equivalent to gas @ $3.50/mcf.
Niger 119 drilling prospects mapped so far.
6 proven play types within many of those prospects yet only 1 materially explored (ie Sokor Alternances).
Oil shows and discoveries have been found across the entire "length and breadth of the entire basin". "All wells drilled have found reservoir in the Sokor Alternances" .
Under the terms of the PSCs, the petroleum code of Niger and its decree, Savp has rights of access to 3rd party infrastructure.
With the English courts due out of recess end September it should be completion in entirety very soon afterwards.
Niger Farm out potential could gather pace now deal closure is imminent.
Over time i expect the risked value for Nigeria to increase from the current 55p to more than double giving the opportunity. It's not being purchased to stand still and is a major growth driver for the company.
The Niger prospects (119 so far) are capable of delivering many multiples in new discoveries to the 100% success rate so far on 5 out of 5.
Solidly backed by blue chip institutional investors and World bank with World bank and Standard Chartered gas payment guarantees.
81p current fair value by Mirabaud which i expect to see steadily increased over the next 24 months particularly with more successes expected to be replicated in Niger. Other than Guyana at the moment where else has such a high consistency for material drilling success and a 2.8 billion bl already risked (4 billion unrisked) mid case recoverable figure.
O&W the company's more recent announcement say that at least some of the $12.5m may be used for share buybacks.
Usually I am not in favour of these, but given the big disconnect with the value, it seems sensible here. It should also take out some of the big sellers.
I'm so glad you have found the extra funds to lower your average in SAVP. I know you have burnt the midnight oil in support of this company and deserve a big win for your forbearance.
I am still struck by Trek's post yesterday, highlighting with impeccable logic the undervaluation here, even at 19p, compared to the last oversubscribed placing price. It seems to me that even if somehow not all the $50mn cash proceeds get carried across in the Seven E closing , that would only make a few pennies' dent in the value here. We've been satisfied that time hasn't run against us in Niger, in terms of licence expiration. And cash calls in the Niger exploration program may be curtailed if AK delivers a solid farm in agreement with a major. And that $12.5mn dividend potential, even at today's price and MC, is around a 6% yield, with all that upside growth to come in Niger and Nigeria. What's not to like?
OAW - agree it’s very quiet but there’s not a lot more to add really. You know I’m a massive fan of SAVP and will be holding until I see all my expected gains. I just hope we don’t get taken out soon after everything signed, sealed and delivered.
I’ve added on Monday, Tuesday and today and have managed to get my average down to a tad under 28p. Still massively in the red but just under the last placing price which I’m comfortable now.
I’d hope to see a bit of Niger news soon and prior to the estimated 2 month timeframe for the remaining workstreams and final completion to take place.
Also hoping to see small, steady daily rises from here. In terms of numbers I focus on they are:-
28p last placing and my B/E
35p the previous placing price
47p the first hurdle price for staff share scheme
56p the IPO price
68p the second hurdle price for staff share scheme
81p the target from recent broker note
Then who knows what?
Finally when AK gets his mits on all the 7E bank balances, will he still pay a dividend or buy back a load of shares.
Exciting times ahead and I can’t wait to see what the SP will be by the end of this calendar.
2 days after the potentially transformational official signing RNS, and we get just 11 posts.
So still way under the radar here, with many, many potentially interested buyers still waiting for the other conditions precedent to be cleared away before finally giving this counter the thumbs up.
Very good point made today regarding the placing in January at 28p ( without ministerial sign off ).
I have mentioned before in December 2017 the placing to finance the deal was 35p. Andrew Knott, and various institutions participated in both placings, and you would think they would have targets way above this considering the deal has since been vastly improved in Savannahs favor.
Now we have ministerial consent, and are on the verge of completing the deal. Since the 35p raise as mentioned we have also had great success in Niger. Fundamentals looking excellent !
With the share price at 19p, some serious gains could occur when you consider the above.
sankeys I agree. Risk almost all to the upside. Wider market sentiment has held this back a bit but a bit of buying pressure today moved the offer up so it wouldn't take much to keep a gentle rise going over the next few weeks which is fine by me.
I bought more today also. I’d say best upside/risk share at present and would be surprised if this is not 30p plus by Xmas, and not surprised at 50p plus.
Lots of risk free news flow to come.
President Buhari - Minister of Petroleum
Timipre Sylva – Bayelsa State – Minister of State for Petroleum
Sale Mamman – Taraba State – Minister of Power (new ministry)
Goddy Jedy Agba – Cross River State – Minister of State, Power
Well put, Trek. Added to my heavily overweight position.
AUGUST 21, 2019 / 1:54 PM / UPDATED AN HOUR AGO
Nigeria's Buhari assigns cabinet portfolios, appoints new oil minister
ABUJA (Reuters) - Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari swore members of his cabinet into office on Wednesday, assigning a new minister of state for petroleum in Africa’s top producer of crude oil.
Buhari kept the petroleum portfolio for himself, as in his first term, and appointed Timipre Silva as minister of state for petroleum, who is widely expected to manage the portfolio on a day-to-day basis.
Nigeria, which has Africa’s biggest economy, remains heavily reliant on crude oil sales despite efforts by Buhari to boost non-oil revenues since he first took office in 2015. Oil sales account for about 90% of foreign exchange and low oil prices helped to push the country into recession in 2016.
Silva, a former governor of Bayelsa state in the southern Niger Delta oil production heartlands, replaces former ExxonMobil executive Emmanuel Kachikwu who was the country’s main representative at OPEC meetings.
Zainab Ahmed retained the position of finance minister.
The cabinet of 43 ministers faces a long list of challenges including tepid growth following its emergence from recession in 2017, along with high unemployment and widespread insecurity.
The move to assign portfolios comes six months after Buhari won a presidential election and nearly three months after his second term began. The time taken to appoint ministers caused jitters amongst investors and threatened growth prospects.
Reporting by Felix Onuah in A
Incontrovertible logic Trek!!! Well done!!!
I've bought back in up to the limit of my means.........only wish I had more funds!
Only patience needed now me thinks!!!
Keeping it simple we raised at a discount at 28p, oversubscribed, without ministerial consent. We get consent and are now at 19p and all the other research still applies including 5 successful drills. So why wouldn't you want to now pay 19p for something that was without consent 28p. No idea so I bought more today. Treklogic. Gla
It looks like there were some sells being worked today after all - around c3m, still not enough to cover yesterday's buys. The sp is beginning to rise a little - the sells may have cleared for now allowing a slow rise?
Interims are out next week, might be a broader update then.
Spread is killing buys