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In the meantime I am taking silence as good sign hopefully meaning that they are working tirelessly to achieve the 28th July, and worst case scenario being an extension of 1 or 2 weeks at max.......
Thanks Komakino, I will fire off a few emails and will let people know if I receive some replies, in the meantime if any of you hear back ahead of me and have emailed please let the board know, much appreciated.........
TIL - see RockyRide’s post 14 July with quote from IR:-
From: RockyRide
RE: Observation on timings14 Jul 2023 12:27
Spooky - Just got a reply from IR and not Camarco. Adding to the reply below, I did not hear the 28th July mentioned one single time at the AGM but I did hear Q3 mentioned a few times. Looks like they are sticking to Q3 but that does not necessarily mean it will go past 28th July. However, if it does pass that date I wonder if they will be obliged to issue another RNS as they have definitely published the date of 28th July in other correspondence. Wish they would stick to one set of timeline guidance and use the same words in all correspondence to us.
“As per Andrew’s letter to shareholders in the 2022 Annual Report, page 19, we are guiding that the transaction is expected to complete in the third quarter of 2023, alongside the publication of a new Admission Document.”
For info this was the post from Sunbed re: the chat with Ritchie
Following my posts this morning airing my concerns, I decided to call our NOMAD Strand Hanson. Late this afternoon I had a call back from Ritchie Balmer and it was a very good call. Whilst my source of original info is solid, I was reassured by Ritchie about where we’re currently at. Here are a few snippets:-
Ritchie has been active on this transaction since before it was announced to us in December 2024 and is very close to the detail as things currently stand.
An extension to the 6 month rule was granted until 28th July based on the demonstrable progress that has been achieved with the deal and a clear line of sight to proposed completion date.
Strand are not working up any alternative paths should 28th July not be hit. This led me to believe that they believe that the date should be hit for completion.
I asked about any main differences re this deal coming back to market and the Exonn. Chad deal. He mentioned a very big difference was that Chad deal was announced on the deemed consent rule, whereby pre-emption rights were not exercised within the time window so SAVE proceeded and announced based on deemed consent. I think this will play a very big part in our favour with regard to the ICC ruling. However, the SS deal does not have any deemed consent element. The SS deal has many strands which need to complete but this deal required Explicit Consent from the SS Government which is being worked on!
He clearly stated tha the final part of the deal needed before its 100% complete is shareholder approval with a vote to take place 2.55 to 3 weeks after the admission document.
I asked about economic interest date and he could not be certain of it as was doing from memory but mentioned that he thought it could be 1st January 2022.
All in all he seemed very relaxed with the situation and extension and as we all know but he also stated, that these types of extension are not uncommon.
Finally as the Explicit Government sign off is a key part of the deal, I’m certain from what he said that we can not issue an Admission Document until SS Government sign-off is in place. The only thing left to do once the document is issued will be to get shareholder approval which we all know is a foregone conclusion.
TiL, I think LSE star out email addresses so I'll leave spaces which you will need to remove
IR: ir @ savannah-energy .com
Strand Hanson: All strand hanson emails are firstname lastname (no spaces) @ strandhanson .co .uk
Nomads are:
JamesSpinney
RitchieBalmer (this is the one who responded to Sunbed on ADVFN)
RobPatrick
Anyone Knocked on the Nomad door or IR recently........................ Seems like we are stranded on a deserted island.................
If anyone has contact details i.e preferably email address for Nomad or IR can you please share with me as I would like to contact them
Countdown 8 days to go........................
Lex - South Sudan should in theory make us big enough but it depends on the acquisition we go for and the the accounting period that is taking into consideration when striking the share purchase agreement as the South Sudan numbers will only feed in post first full year of operations under us but I am sure it’s more complicated than that and there are probably lots of technicalities as well.
Also if we go for some acquisitions in Nigeria from Exxon, chevron, shell and pick up their entire upstream portfolio as supposed to their individual assets than you could be getting close to suspension territory again as the assets in Nigeria are huge as well, production may be equivalent to our enlarged group of the acquiring assets but some of the 2p reserves are staggering so all depends on what is the target but honestly as far as everyone is concerned as of now is to get Petronas South Sudan done and dusted. No one can think beyond that so far until this is out the way……. Xx
Thanks for all the replies. It's my second time through suspension with them, here's hoping there won't be a 3rd!
Isn't SS supposed to make us big enough that the next acquisition won't be a RTO? Especially if they squeeze a few more deals in to this admission, as folks have suggested possible.
Thanks to everyone for the informative posts.
For good measure and a bit of fun I will say the following:
Admission Document released on 25th July
Re-admission on 26th July
Rocky was 50k bopd explicitly mentioned by AK on South Sudan production ? Also do you happen to know if the 2p reserves number was circulated about at the AGM ? I know Zen has posted a few times from previous Africa intelligence article but that was a while back so good to hear that number at the AGM.
I was talking to a guy from Shore Cap at the AGM. He was looking for as much info as possible to add to his file on the SS deal. Alas, sadly he would have learnt nothing new apart from maybe AK mentioning 50kboepd to Savannah. Shore Cap are working up a number of different financial modelling scenarios so that they’re ready to put a note out very quickly after ad doc. They have their target SP under review, and is it 45p at the mo without SS? I think it’s somewhere around there and with a successful deal of 50k and circa $600m - $800m balancing payment (no issue of equity) I’d like to see their revised price to be well north of 80p.
Rocky on your point around return to market with the petronas deal in tact but formal approval not yet granted. I mentioned that the brokers will set the tone of the share price in that case by brokers i meant mainly finncap and panmure gordon and strand hanson as those are our 3 house brokers who will also play a hand in writing the admission document like they did with our last deal. I believe that the 3 will set the tempo for the Share price on re-listing with approval and without approval.
https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/12/Savannah-Energy-plc-Admission-Document-Dec21.pdf
Rocky - What can I say I am naturally and over thinker which probably isn't so helpful in this scenario. But as much as for some light hearted fun information sharing and learning from each other I do enjoy the exchanges with many posters on here. Plus I think it helps to share thoughts widely amongst the group on proceedings as it helps with engagement and understanding for all.
On a serious note if and when the admission document does land I might need to check in to a clinic and check my blood pressure before AK leads us onto another suspension, they say third time is a lucky charm ;)
Agree. Trust has been the one keeping this board alive. Love all his posts.
TiL - do you have any other addictions apart from this one? I certainly hope not as you would not have enough time to do anything with them. LOL - ha ha ha only joking mastery but your mind is certainly working overtime during this long period of silence. Keep your posts flowing as I love them. Hope we are all rewarded well here - at some point anyway.
I am feeling lucky this week not sure why there is a itch on my palm that needs scratching ;)
My assumption is based on the fact that the market can't discount the fact of how our nigerian business continue to outperform and grow as well as niger start up in sight.................................. Surely with the benefit of 6 months of nigeria performance and reduce debt and new Amcon gas contract at the very least we would open probably level or a few pence up the very least in the 25 - 30 p range. Besides it will be entirely down to the brokers as they normally have finer detail of where the company would be at in terms of approval so they will probably price it with that in mind as well, and who knows we may release the document announce another deal in tandem as well so all factors that would need to be considered in the opening price as well
Rocky in any case lets hope we only come back with approval in hand as that would be the most logical and reasonable thing to do, although I think the share price wouldn't react as you say and would still see a premium to our suspended price more in the region of 30-35p but not as large as we would see with approval obliviously. Let's hope he has planned the timing and workstreams to perfection so we achieve both.
Rocjy - I am guessing you haven't had any further updates from IR have you or do you plan to contact them this week ?
On a side note - is there a specific timeframe that we have to be trading for post suspension before we walk into another suspension. my question is can we come back from suspension and than go back into suspension for another acquisition or does some time have to pass first before we could do that ? not saying i want another suspension but good to know
I could not state what ‘valid reasons’ may be. But if SAVE required a further extension for a valid reason, AND reasonable progress has been made AND a clear achievable path could be seen to completion, then AIM and NOMAD will more than likely allow a further extension. I believe that SAVE are under pressure to resume trading from a number of angles and personally from what I hear, I don’t think AK can hold out much longer before we resume. Whether that is with or without Government approval, your guess is as good as mine. My fear is hat we come back without it as I think we would come back 5p to 10p below suspended price and would not see the same gain if and when fully completed.
Yes, agree TiL. According to Sunbed's conversation with the Nomad a couple of weeks ago the extension was agreed based on a clear path to producing the admission doc. That assumes therefore that if that no longer applies then the Nomad would not grant a further extension. The conversation certainly indicated that it was not done without due consideration of meeting the extended date.
Numbers swimming in Zeng’s head as we all know. Amazing details. No competition :-)) Thank you.
Agreed Zengas - Hence my point how long can the admission document and re-listing be held back simply because of government approval, there is only o long the deal can be in sign off inertia.......................................
On a side note i find the below paragraph interesting referring to Exxon shell and chevron Nigeria divestments, wonder if these are the assets that we are looking to strike for when it mentions one other significant opportunity in 2023......
"For example, in addition to divesting its Chad and Cameroon holdings, ExxonMobil has indicated that it is pulling out of Ghana6 and says it will end operations in Equatorial Guinea after its licence there is up in 20267. ExxonMobil has also announced its intention to divest a significant portion of its Nigerian portfolio, as have Shell and Chevron7. PETRONAS had beenoperating in South Sudan for more than 24 years when itdecided to shed its oil and gas assets there."
There may be no firm date for S.S govt approval.
Look at 7E they first had Nigerian Govt DPR dd and sent for final approval which bewteen those 2 dats lasted a year and overall the deal took 2.5 years in total to complete from first announced.
Currently the S.Sudan president is involved with a lot of talks and travelling with and to other countries and Sudan itself on ending the war in Sudan - so this could impact timelines.
Amending that to - 7E and Exxon Chad running to almost 3 and 4 weeks respectively beyond the 6 month rule