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Will we be impacted negatively being a UK company when they clearly don’t trust the West?
You're quite right, my apologies!
This is going to have a massive impact in the next few weeks and months. Dollars can no longer be used as collateral for Naira loans, which will stop the hoarding of dollars and more dollars will be liquidated to Naira thus massively increasing dollar supply in the next 3 months.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/nigeria-bars-lenders-using-fx-denominated-collateral-naira-loans-2024-04-08/
Perhaps you have read the Wildcat rns right and I've read it wrong. My interpretation is that Sudan is closed for business but not South Sudan.
That's that for now then, I imagine? This seems lose lose - stay suspended until hostilities die down, or take the massive share price hit.
How utterly depressing: I miss my 5/5 strikes in Niger that'll be online by the end of 2019...
Interesting to see a new role being posted in Nigeria
https://careers.savannah-energy.com/job/Lagos-Supply-Chain-Manager-LA/975464255/
On the Naira Goldman predicting further gains and see potentially naira back below 1,000. I truly believe in the Q2 2024 we will see Naira back in the 800 - 900 range effectively re-couping all of the second de-valuation that occurred earlier this year.
It could also start to claw back some of the first de-valuation value which occured in June 2023. With Dangote and port harcourt refinery products reaching domestic market alleviating need to import dollar denominated refined products
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-12/usd-ngn-nigerian-naira-could-extend-rally-to-below-1000-dollar-goldman-sachs
Yes, an ironic chuckle from me this morning when I saw that PF.
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/WCAT/statement-re-sudan-and-south-sudan/16422159
I don’t disagree Rocky especially as we are approaching the middle of the year already. I’d like to think that they’d bring in a partner maybe. One thing is for certain there also needs a comprehensive update on Niger given that the pipeline is operational and I’m sure now that CNPC will be planning the next phases for 2-300k bopd with pumping stations. They simply have to get moving with this asset asap which would be something on top of the decent uplift from Stubb Creek oil after the recent acquisition there.
I’m just thinking that our risk profile is a bit too high for my liking and taking a cash injection for a partial sale and relinquishing operatorship would reduce our overall profile and and that our debt could be significantly reduced. Yes, less potential future revenues but surely taking smaller pieces of the pies has to be an option.
Sure aren’t there Russian troops in Mali as well for much longer and where it was reported last week on here about us doing something in renewables there.
Russian troops arrive in Niger as military agreement begins https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68796359
As the West are clearly out of favour, would it be an idea to sell a big % of our interests in the ARB. Maybe sell 50% to somebody like CNPC for a very large sum and transfer operator status to them. Then just take 50% of all future production…
Let’s hope there will still be a bit of capacity left in the pipe for us to stick 5kboepd into it soon…
April 13, 20242:40 PM GMT+1Updated 16 hours ago
NIAMEY, April 13 (Reuters) - Niger has signed a memorandum of understanding with Chinese state-owned oil giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) worth $400 million linked to the sale of crude oil from its Agadem oilfield, Niger state television RTN reported late on Friday.
RTN did not provide details on the agreement. Niger's military authorities and CNPC could not be reached for comment.
"China is a great friend to Niger; we can never say it enough," Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine said at the signing ceremony, which was broadcast by RTN.
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"This signature demonstrates the friendship ... and fruitful cooperation between the two states," Chinese ambassador Jiang Feng said.
An export pipeline project backed by CNPC subsidiary PetroChina (601857.SS), opens new tab was officially launched last November, linking the Agadem oilfield to the port of Cotonou in neighbouring Benin.
Previously, the West African country had a small oil refinery with capacity of around 20,000 bpd that mostly supplies Niger's domestic fuel market.
You understood perfectly, SoG. Was similar to Rocky's point on stranded gas. I probably wasn't v clear.
The reason I don't favour dividends, is that we must be paying about 15% interest right now: a distribution is unjustifiable in such circumstances.
Agadem/RR & CYB - Many thanks your thoughts & comments.
RR - particularly interested in your list of topics covered with IR as, without wishing to get too OCD, I read it as a bit of a blend - partly items discussed, partly your hope / wish list for 2024…but it’s a bit tricky to understand which items you covered with IR and which points are your/our shareholder hopes. All of which I agree are key points of course, with exception of the dividend. Think
Latter more important in 25-26 when special divi of CC ICC Award sum should be contemplated.
One of the things IR should now be able to confirm or correct is the previously posted / discussed news publication of the June 2025 ICC hearing. So I’m curious as to whether this was discussed.
IR should also be able to share the CPF completion date and modeled numbers - quantum of base case more gas, % increase in base case of sales, etc. appreciate not actual. But to your point, this is our sole jewel in the crown at present, so some hint on this might be helpful for patient shareholders who have received very little info for a long time on the underlying business.
CYB - I’m assuming “ It'll be interesting to see if the growth in deferred revenue leads to customers seeking relief.” relates to the Take or Pay contracts. You’re right that this is again something an Operational Update should cover.
Given the significant burden of servicing of debt finance, I'd sooner see debt paid down or money put to work in high-IRR, low-payback-period projects and capex than any distribution.
On the Chad stuff, it can't be appealed forever. Others understand arbitral timelines far better than me. Injunctive seizure of cargo, either at Kribi or at destination port is how we get paid (should the arbitration be successful), I believe.
It'll be interesting to see if the growth in deferred revenue leads to customers seeking relief.
Now at 1,194 which is a 26.5% improvement from the recent all time low.
We know small distributions have previously been pencilled in but luck has not gone our way on that front. I’d have seriously expected one if SS closed but now with zero production at the moment I guess we would have to wait a while longer yet even if the deal closed. On the ICC cases, we could well win the awards and maybe North of $500m but how and when would SAVE receive the dosh and as some have mentioned, how many appeal challenges are allowed and how long will they take?
Can’t wait to see a comprehensive update on paper so that we can really see what’s going on. I still get stuff from IR and had another call last week but nothing tangible to mention to be fair. Chewing over old cud again but this is a taste of what we hope to see during the course of 2024:-
CPF to complete in Nigeria
New customers added and existing ones grown on the Accugas network
Will we add more stranded gas
I hope to see a renewable deal announced and hydrocarbon M&A in Nigeria too
Complete the Stubb Creek deal in Nigeria - hopefully by September as per guidance
Complete oil test in Niger and first oil of 1.5kboepd to commence
35m 2C to reclassify as 2P
New drilling program in Niger or introduce partner - minimum income of $250m
Update on 4 x ICC cases - highly unlikely TY but I still hope to see one
Debt to be reduced to below $300m by YE and to be refinanced
Progress to be made on renewable deals and as Z mentioned could this be split off as it’s own entity
So a lot to get our teeth in to but unfortunately, the one jewel in our crown remains to be gas in Nigeria ATM
Watch this space…
Totally absolutely. Please keep firing up this Savannah obsession. Trust is much needed otherwise it’s impossible to go on. Gratitudes and appreciations. No word is good enough.
I second that sentiment CYB. Over 15 months with scarcely any news from the company so it's really appreciated that posters like TiL have managed to keep ferreting out information to share with us all.
Thanks Trust.
Whilst I'm here, thanks also for all your thoughtful posts here over many months. You're a big part of keeping this board alive and keeping us all thinking: it's appreciated.
Caution here is the article Vitol still front runners -
Trader Gunvor takes a swing at GOC-Vitol agreement over Carlyle assets
Guillaume Letessier, a senior manager at Geneva-based trading company Gunvor, visited Libreville in February to meet with junta leader Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema as part of the company's efforts to get in Gabon's good graces over its rival Vitol to buy Carlyle's assets. According to our sources, Gunvor offered the Gabon Oil Company (GOC) $950m for Carlyle's local assets, currently operated by Assala Energy. However, Vitol is also based in Geneva and has exclusive negotiating rights with the GOC for this. It is also promising the GOC a hefty sum in exchange for Carlye's production of 45,000 bpd. These assets were acquired from Shell in 2017 for over $700m.
This buying race follows the GOC's November 2023 announcement that it was exterting its pre-emption rights over Carlyle's assets in Gabon. Initially, these were supposed to go to Maurel & Prom, a subsidiary of Indonesian Pertamina (AI, 01/04/24). Oligui Ngema confirmed his intention to finalise the acquisition during his official New Year's address. On 15 February, Carlyle and GOC signed a sales and purchase agreement, and GOC must now raise the necessary funds to seal the deal.