Blencowe Resources: Aspiring to become one of the largest graphite producers in the world. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
RR, I've not come across any company that's been forced off by AIM. I've come across a couple of companies that have chosen to delist and go private, but both turned out to be frauds so I don't think that's a comparison worth making. I'm pretty sure AIM wouldn't force SAVE off just because they got fed up with waiting, if they knew that SAVE would immediately suspend for another reverse takeover.
I was just making the observation that forcing them to abandon the transaction might not achieve their aim of getting SAVE back trading if they just popped up with another reverse takeover. Even if we get another extension 1st Feb, hopefully we'll get some sort of an update that gives us more info. than we know at the moment.
Does anybody know of any previous de-list scenarios and how they work?
AIM have not said to complete by dd/mm/yyyy, they have asked to see significant progress as they were not happy with the speed at which things were happening previously.
RR,
just musing on your option 1 pull out or be forced out of the deal by 1/2/24
a) If AIM tell SAVE that they must complete by x date or they have to delist, then if there is still a good chance of completion but have not completed by x date, then delisting might well be the best option. For most people I would imagine that completion of SS deal pretty much derisks their investment here (obviously dependent on average buy in price and where the sp settles) so the delist option, whilst not great, might be better than just abandoning the deal because they couldn't meet AIMs date.
b) Given AK's stated objective of completing another acquistion by 2023, then If SAVE did pull out we could possibly just go straight into another reverse takeover situation if that is ready to announce. If that is the case then you can understand why SAVE want to complete the SS deal, no matter how long it takes. Not sure many of us would want them to pull out of the deal because of a demand by AIM just to go into suspension again.
Https://x.com/dangotegroup/status/1745946178410144097?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Looks like the dangote refinery has finally commenced
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-13/why-nigeria-s-new-oil-refinery-is-being-called-a-game-changer?leadSource=uverify%20wall
I hope oil exports are not getting held up from Port Sudan. Am hoping Port Sudan is a bit too far North in the Red Sea and is not affected by the Yemen issues a bit lower down. Maybe the oil tankers simply sail North from South Sudan and trundle on up through the Suez.
Oil rising tonight on a the news that the US & UK have started to bomb the Houthis in Yemen. POO could shoot up if Iran chose to get involved and retaliate to support Yemen. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Lebanon getting more involved attacking Isreal from the North. This is a very dangerous situation.
K - I sincerely hope we don’t take that route.
LST - precisely and was my initial thought (although my info is a few weeks old now) Chicken or Egg and all the that good stuff.
RR doesn't that now put us in a very precarious catch 22 situation where debt providers won't engage without govt sources and SS govt who will be of the opinion who are you prove you have the funds ?
Ah ok, thanks for the update RR, appreciated.
One other option I guess is to delist from AIM and carry on the deal as a private company, with a view to relisting at a later date, though that's not altogether desireable as listings are pretty expensive things in themselves. Hopefully we'll get some more clarity on 1st Feb.
K - I am not speculating and in very brief summary I’ll put it in to 2 points:-
1 AIM are not happy with the progress they were expecting to see prior to the agreement of this extension period we are now in. They have mandated that progress is made, mainly in regards to the SS by 1st Feb if a further extension is to be agreed.
2 Debt finance institutions (not Accugas finance) for the SS deal are not progressing their workstreams until we have some sort of new commitments from the SS deal. Their costs to put the deal together are very expensive and they are not prepared to spend the cash as things currently stand.
Now this bit is my opinion. If we were to get the commitment from SS Government (whatever AIM are asking for and I’m not saying a 100% final sign off) by 1st Feb, I believe the debt finance work packages will only re-start in earnest at that point. Then the debt packages would take 4 - 8 weeks to put together.
I think we will either:-
1 pull out or be forced out of the deal by 1/2/24
2 issue a half-baked AD and continue working through the tough parts of the deal
Or hopefully
3 keep AIM happy with progress to allow a further extension
Finally if it is 3 I think we would remain suspended for quite some time post 1st Feb. And as you say, the longer we his goes on, the less the debt finance required. Unless of course the Government and or Petronas start to change the rules if there is not a bi enough hard cash payment to them.
That’s all I’ll be saying on this subject for now.
If it goes on any longer there won't actually be any debt to incur! Not sure I'd agree with you on that RR as with these deals the govt. sign off generally comes well after the deal has been agreed between the 2 companies. With Accugas it was over a year later if memory is correct. If you are correct about AIM itself taking control and wanting to see significant progress by 1st Feb, then you'd hope that was something SAVE and the Nomad felt possible when agreeing to it.
Either way, we're just speculating to fill the time. Only 3 weeks left before we hopefully find something positive out!
RR: Has this come from your discussions with the Nomad or what you believe to be the case ?
K - the reason for the shorter extension is that it was mandated by AIM! Previously SAVE & NOMAD agreed dates and then AIM accepted. However, as we are so far past the initial 6 month period and a few extensions have been granted, AIM are now taking control of what’s going on. They have requested to see significant progress by 1st of Feb. I also believe that the SS debt deal is in early stages and debt providers need to see a Government commitment before they will continue their very expensive professional fees to put the finance deal together.
AIM will be pushing SAVE to relist soon if they don’t see the progress which they want to see and AIM are reviewing all progress now far more regularly than the were during the previous extension to the suspension.
In my opinion SAVE need to show debt providers that we have a committed Government before the debt package can be put together and not in place.
If we see a further extension I see this as good news as we will have to have made significant progress for AIM to allow a further extension.
Looks like Nigeria is providing tax incentives for investors in the gas sector..
https://businessday.ng/opinion/article/nigerias-gas-sector-and-the-role-of-tax-incentives-in-stimulating-economic-growth/
Who knows we may even get a conclusion pre Feb 1st maybe even next week fingers crossed
Hopefully the fact that the last extension was only for an additional month and half rather than the obligatory 6 months suggests that they are close to finalising this one way or the other. Personally I'm comfortable with an additional extension if it means we get this across the line, but what I do not agree with is the total lack of communication on any aspect of the business. It'll certainly be an interesting next shareholder meeting either way.
Komakino - I'm still surprised that UK listed companies can operate in countries such as Chad and SS given the UK corporate governance rules. I'd just like to see the shares relisted regardless of where we are on SS, so the Board become a bit more accountable and forthcoming. Shame we don't have a stronger Nomad.
Totally agree with everything you have said RR.
I think 10 years is enough time to create shareholder value, and we currently sit suspended still with sod all comms from the company for the best part of a year.
If the deals we are going for mean the company can't communicate in detail with shareholders about the deal, then maybe they shouldn't be involved in these transactions.
Personally I think its time AK is moved on if he can't close out the SS deal in H1.
When you look at his record it really is very poor, apart from the Nigerian Gas operations, which when last informed were performing well.
5 out of 5 successes in Niger were impressive but that was over half a decade ago.
I think his time is up.
Communication appalling, shareholder value creation even worse!
Possibly TiL, but if the sticking point was signature payments then they'd just up those if they needed rather than increase the whole transaction price so the signature payments would increase. AK has always been clear that SAVE behaves in an ethically correct way (probably what cost us Chad) so it would be interesting to know what's going on behind the scenes, as I'm pretty sure SS are out for everything they can get. Doubt we'll ever find out though.
I for one would be disappointed if that happened and don't believe it will.
Komakino - Perhaps, they may be some signature payments tied into the all inclusive headline price..............
Til, that would only happen if the delay is actually a problem with Petronas rather than achieving the consent of the appropriate SS ministries. I think it's much more likely to be the latter in which case the acquisition price is immaterial imo
I wonder if we are willing to go higher than $1.25bn to secure the acquisition. Let's say we are prepared to pay $1.6bn for the assets would that be enough to convince of approval ?
I'd agree with that TiL. I think most people understand the situation with SS but they certainly could keep us better informed on Niger and Accugas. The kpi for the debt revaluation was actually set in 2021 as a kpi for 2022, never mind 2023, so that's a spectacular fail by any reading. I'm sure there's valid reasons for this but they should be more upfront imo and explain the challenges rather than leaving it to us to get frustrated over the lack of closure.
Rockyride - I think post people frustration is not to do with M&A and deals i.e south sudan. But mainly to do with lack of BAU updates, the company could do a better job in keeping the investor base appraised on BAU activities, if they did that than many would be happy to wait for as long as it takes for M&A deal closure.