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Low energy density but cheap. I think 160w/h/kg.slightly different market than li-ion perfect for grid storage as can be discharged at slow rate.
Loving the Chinese reference pops ;-) seriously I do think some of us (not Osaka as he’s a twit) ought to meet up when the goals are met. Been a long haul
OTH, makes me feel like the Father of the House or the Last Idiot Standing.
This has taken so long, the little ducklings have grown up, had their own 10x over and been eaten with some shredded spring onions and hoisin sauce.
As you say, there’s no where to run to or hide over the coming month or two, and the current state of play couldn’t be much better.
Not sure Osaka’s return is that dramatic. More like bad penny ;-). However I do think he’s right - Archer needs a swansong and a success to get him back home. An exit strategy within a year as all the ducks are lined up aren’t they. It’s just a question of when to hit the sell button. Not many variables left now. 12p my target and I’ve been in longer than Osaka I think and almost as long as InB!!
Funnily enough I was thinking about you over the weekend. I was also wondering whether your contacts at UCL had now graduated or completed their PhD’s and moved into R&D in industry or other such gainful employ. Seeing CATL s announcement last week with its target market being storage and lower end batteries is bound to make one think. Can’t underestimate further Li improvements as it looks to keep its nose either ahead or relevant longer term especially as the potential market for a host of applications simply amplifies the market for nigh on any option.
CATL's new sodium ion battery cell achieves up to 160Wh/kg vs, for example, Tesla's new 4680 cell which is targeting circa 300Wh/kg. CATL acknowledged the limitations of sodium ion and highlighted their hybrid 'AB battery system' with both lithium and sodium ion cells. As always with new tech the route to scalable production is years away.
Good to see you though Jonners, I did think Osaka's return to the board and price target may bring the gang out again.
Last week, Chinese battery manufacturing heavyweight CATL gave the technology a huge boost when it said it would start producing sodium-ion batteries for electric cars within two years.
Jam had better be soon?
Overcooked yes, had a few too many watching Lions V SA yesterday -.-
Would love to see this at £1 but can't see that happening with current assets without a 10:1 consolidation.
Undercooked or overcooked?
Also worth noting your calcs are a bit wild.
We currently have a 20% stake of Mutamba with a max 51% on completion of DFS so won't achieve anywhere near the revenue. Plus we know Moz will be spun off.
I wouldn't recommend forecast revenue per share as an indication of SP either. Much better to take guidance of cost from studies and look at post tax NPVs imo.
As an example the same document I mentioned from SPAngel suggests 11.3p for MdB and 0.9p for Mutamba, less overheads gives a price target of 11.5p. The price target will increase once MdB is de risked and possibly completion of PFS for Mutamba but certainly £1/share is unlikely.
You've massively undercooked MdB there Tony. We're selling Spodumene 6% concentrate (SC6) not pure Li20.
Target is 200,000 tonnes of SC6 so at scoping study $685/t that's 137m annual revenue.
Check out SPAngel Mining Flash Note 31/03/21. Page 18/38 breaks down their model for MdB.
SC6: 191t x $685 = $130m
By products (quartz, feldspar, pegmatite) = $30m
MdB total annual revenue = $160m
They model in a 15 year Life of Mine. So LoM revenue $160m x 15 = $2.4b
Latest Lithium price 29th July $15.75 up 50% year on year.
On top of the quartz and feldspar estimate we have :
From SAV's own web site the inferred Li2O is 285,900 (discovered so far). At $600 per ton that gives a total of $171,540,000.
The Mineral Sands resource target "US$4.23 billion LOM revenue forecast based on Management Case Two"
Add those together and divide by the number of shares and the price is around £3. However, plenty of costs need deducting and there is still work to be done, so lets say a fair target is £1.
Lithium price has increased 10% since the beginning of February.
DATE PRICE (US$ PER KILOGRAM)
25 February 2021 10.00
18 February 2021 9.50
11 February 2021 9.00