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Bob,
Great post mate. Fully agreed with you and it is to be noted that Govt did not give £174K for nothing and the HNWI did not invest ~£2.5m for nothing if he/she did not see a huge benefit. It is a time to wait and get the reward being patient investor.
Jimton; Of the 13 companies that received grant funding it would appear only 2 others are proposing a potential therapy treatment.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986524/Competition_Results_-_UKRI_Ideas_to_Address_COVID-19_Innovate_UK_de_minimis_Aug_2020.pdf
Jimtom, I have to disagree with your view with regards to covid take a look at the BMJ article below from last month.
Key questions and key answers; Where are we with drug treatments for covid-19? What gaps in treatment remain?
Saye Khoo, professor in the Department of Pharmacology at the University of Liverpool. “We have a moderate pipeline of drugs—we’re not swimming in lots of new candidates and lots of new classes of drugs at the moment,” he says.
Professor Khoo was cited on the original nature article that highlighted TYk2 as a potential treatment. He is also a lead on the Agile program. From my interpretation of the above statement there would not appear to be a great number of promising drugs in the mix.
Sareum was one of only 13 company's to receive grant funding out a total of 244 applications.
Duncan Richards, professor of clinical therapeutics at the University of Oxford, says that this is an important gap to tackle “as we think ahead to next winter when, despite vaccination, we expect there will be significant numbers of patients.”
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1109
Both are equally important. On a side note to this, a client of mine has just had Covid after being vaccinated twice. He's waiting to see which variant it was. He had the Astra jab. He is fit and healthy but it still knocked him for 6 for a week. Other vaccinated people may not be so lucky.
I'll second that Thoth, massive upfront. Respiratory is massive at the moment, remember at one point in some parts of India they were rationing oxygen it was that bad.
The usual caveats here. I'm basing this on the scenario the data is good and it shows efficacy.
I also don't see any reason why a licence shouldn't be worth £800 million in milestones. The severe respiratory market is a big one after all. That would see us at 28p by the year-end without the other compounds in play.
Jimtom. If SAR data is good, the planning of any trials needs to be looked at very carefully. We need to avoid what happened to SNG.
I think the same, Thoth. I think it will be a low upfront with all the value placed on approval milestones and high percentage royalties.
Just be weary guys that the government ain’t that interested in therapies regardless of what they’ll say. It’s all vaccine vaccine vaccine for them. SNG are in phase 3 trials for covid therapy and should of got a eua after amazing phase 2 results but didn’t and have struggled to get numbers for their trials due to the government’s taking 14000 I think for trials they know won’t work which they did for aspirin and many more. Luckily the FDA seem to have their head screwed on and is backing them in the activ2/3 trials. Not trying to poo poo sars drugs as they look exciting possibilities but for covid I’m not sure as they are way way behind many others and this government will no doubt put sly roadblocks in place. Good luck all!
Although im very patient and waiting for the end game. My nose tells me a c19 licence imminent. Possibly as soon as this data is analysed.
1. Price and volume odd for a while. Looks to me like multiple parties building
2. Appearance of a white night. Improving negotiating position
3. Proliferation of paid ****wombles.
Happy to wait and sit it out if wrong. But c19 therapeutics is so hot and so huge i think it could be very soon. And a very very huge upfront.. we will have to see. Gla
yes, we have to trial on the patients available. If the summer\autumn coincides with a third wave. They will probably get approval for P2. Maybe a P1a where it is given to healthy but positive covid patients. Planning the strategy is going to be crucial as ethics come into play. SNG aren't in Agile but it means they can trial in India but not being on Agile will also hold them back when seeking emergency approval. I'm sure there is more than Tim, John and UKRI thinking about this.
Aye Krusty, we get sucked into the noise when we should know better we're a patient lot.
On the summer scenario though if as my post last night (see Independent Article below) we get more of this due to the Delta variant or the new Delta Plus or others since most people will be returning from amber or red listed countries, we could well have a operation warp speed style push.
Article- https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/health/hospital-emergency-black-alert-barnsley-hospital-b1870819.html%3famp
Ahfam, I'm happy with the "during 2021" timescale which looks realistic, end of summer might be described as a "stretch target" perhaps? Either way, it's really not that long to wait in the context of a 2011 investment...
Not forgetting H7 100 day mission
In response, an independent group, the pandemic preparedness partnership, was established to advise the UK G7 Presidency on how to develop and deploy safe, effective diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines within the first 100 days of a pandemic. This is predicated on an effective global surveillance system to identify a pandemic threat quickly. Then, alongside crucial non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing, contact tracing and PPE, rapid deployment of effective diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines can save countless lives.
For these reasons, the pandemic preparedness partnership has set out the 100 Days Mission for developing safe, effective diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines at scale
Funding is sorted by the HNWI's £2.4m investment.
As per the £1,470,000 investment RNS from Dr Mitchell-
"These new funds will also help us to further explore the potential benefit of SDC-1801 against Covid-19 and progress the preclinical development of our second TYK2/JAK1 inhibitor SDC-1802 against cancers".
Just keeping it factual for the c..wombles.
Krusty, this is taken from the Covid grant RNS is Dec a week before the Nature Article RNS.
'If this research and the ongoing preclinical development of SDC-1801 is successful, and subject to further funding, Sareum would aim to begin a clinical trial of SDC-1801 in severe-phase Covid-19 patients during 2021'.
It would go into AGILE and intensive care and we would multi-bag and that is being conservative chap.
Many happy returns to you to and everyone else.
For the trials, I think they will do something like the vaccine trials. A short P1 in healthy adults, keep that running, then start P2 in covid patients. I do think getting approval by the end of the year is ambitious but if it shows efficacy in seriously ill patients, it will be fast-tracked. All three phases will continue well into next year and the year after just as the vaccines are still in trials now.
With the Delta variant wreaking havoc- if it goes into AGILE as we suspect Dr Mitchell has mentioned that it also go straight into intensive care patients with severe covid at almost the same time. Seat belts and puke buckets on the ready chaps.
Many happy returns Ahfam
I don't care what the paid derampers views are. They're not actually their views anyway, it's stuff they've been sent when they signed up. Do you think we'll be dosing real patients by the end of summer? That's 10 weeks away. I'm an optimist but that seems wildly optimistic to me. Anyway, I hope you're right. We've had an amazing run to get this far, way beyond my expectations in this timeframe, so anything more than this is an absolute bonus from my perspective.GL. K
Ditto, Potnak- Thoth hold 50m share most bought sub1p- do the figure c..wombles and weep- minted even if it went to 2p extremely unlikely as the HNWI has warrants at 5p and 7p with news on covid due from now to mid July latest.
What what
Yes, Krusty. My point is. the slyone seems to think millionaires can't be made here when in fact, some already are on paper and yet they still hold for the potential. The other fact, that these new advisors we have onboard never point out is we aren't anywhere near the binary choice of if it works or not. That's where the risk is. We already know that other TYK2 compounds have a decent safety profile and ours has been tweaked to be even more so. We should sail through P1 and be in actual Covid patients by the end of summer. that's when the squeaky bum comes into play. Will it keep these patients out of the hospital? if it does. it'll multi bag again.
Just tried replying to your post but it's disappeared, don't know if it's been removed or what happened? Anyway, here's my reply, read it quick before it disappears too lol:
Sorry potnak, they're hypothetical millionaires not ACTUAL millionaires. As you know, many LTH's post regularly on here that they're not selling a single share until x, y or z price. They will only become millionaires once they've banked any gains and, as you've often pointed out, the failure rate for biotechs is extremely high. Just saying...