The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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A danger of 2+2=6 but the Chinese manufacturer of Favilavir (anti flu drug repurposed for Covid 19) is Zhejiang Hisun Pharna, a pharma listed on the Shanghai exchange (remember that Aurora has gone to a Shanghai listed company). Hisun has an interest in antibiotics/antivirals and cancer. It also has a R&D division:
http://www.hisunpharm.com/en/rd.html?PHPSESSID=9642b8d5d5d98bbcb588e098b1e1b8fd#rd3
'Our product pipelines include recombinant proteins, mAb, recombinant vaccines, antibody-drug conjugated, that cover multiple therapeutic areas such as autoimmune disease, cancer, diabetes and blood disease.'
Still a strong possibility IMO that the Chinese will look at SAR.... GLA!
As Thoth would say, 'this is way above my paygrade' but maybe someone out there would have more success than me in finding a Pharma with an interest in antivirals, particularly fluoroquinolones, as well as an interest in TYK2/JAK1 inhibitors. It would appear that our friends in Russia are having some success with antivirals. If I'm understanding things correctly they are using a RNA inhibitor to suppress the reproduction capability of Covid. However, by suppressing the virus's ability to reproduce it stimulates the cytokines and in some cases (as we already know) it creates the cytokine storm which then requires a TYK2/JAK1 inhibitor. Apparently the Russians are seeing 60-70% success with the RNA antiviral but that leaves a big gap. However, if it really is working then the antiviral route looks a lot more immediate than a possible vaccine (although we're probably going to need both). Interesting article at Anvivogen which caught my attention because of the RNA/IL-6/TYK2/JAK1 interactions:
https://www.invivogen.com/spotlight-covid-19-predicted-immune-responses
Now, if a pharma was already looking at us, here's the smoking gun for a a reduction in the investment risk and if the pharma isn't already looking at us but has an interest in antivirals then here's a reason to consider another look. Forget the ramping, lets provoke an auction! GLA
RMM - thanks. Lots of exciting stuff to look forward to!
Krone/Potnak - My view is that Covid enhances the value of TYK2. Any partner/licencee of 1801/2 now has another factor that could offset the risk of investing in a preclinical asset. Many years ago when I first looked at Sareum I judged it on the basis of a multi asset biotech (Aurora/737/Tyk2/SKIL). The risk was much less than other options with one drug in the pipeline. The options with TYK2 have improved immeasurably over the last few years and covid has added to the list (respiratory). What is a hot sector has now taken on further heat. However, a £50k or even a £5m grant is as nothing compared to what the package is worth hence my view that we should not allow Covid to divert the strategic focus. What could help to spark an auction is that pharma's not previously interested in TYK2 might now have a reason to reconsider. GLA
I believe the potential for Covid to fast track 1801 or 02 should be investigated but not at the detriment of the wider indications of the compound. I think its a tricky call and i'm glad we haven't just jumped on the bandwagon. IMO the best we can do is pre clinical for Covid and then hand it over.
Hi RMM - many thanks as always for a very balanced view. Do you not think that the potential for 1801 in Covid, whether or not it is eventually actually applied to Covid, will significantly increase the speed of a potential licensing deal. So we could get a deal WELL in advance of the AGM particularly if we believe what we have been told about ongoing discussions with big pharma.
The next Sierra Q10 is due out around 6th Aug which means that Stephen Dilly is most likely drafting it now for approval later this month. My take is that he’s still in the honeymoon period and it will be a cut and paste of the last Q10 ie very little that’s new. However, the next quarter (report due November) will be a big issue for him and he will have to start to reveal his strategy. It’s now make your mind up time on 737. Clinical data is there for him to use in the shop window and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t touting it with a view to on-licencing (it shores up his balance sheet and retains an interest if all goes well). Gut feel says he’ll try hard to retain a stake and we’ll get an update in September at the latest. Meanwhile TYK2 is now fully funded to get through pre-clinical. The focus in my opinion is that this is where all the effort should be made. Ignore grants for Covid, they will be peanuts compared to the big prize. Let someone with deep pockets make that call. Again my gut tells me that we’ll get news before the AGM along with an update on Aurora. The MM’s can play all the games they like but the reality is that without volume they won’t make any money and volume goes up exponentially with a rising SP. With everything in the shop window (1801/2, 737, Aurora) and no bad news its only a matter of time before good news breaks. September to November will be the crux. Now, as to a SP forecast…..