Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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"Well curiosity get the better of me, so after searching the website for the answer and drawing a blank i have emailed Investor relations direct to ask."
Any response yet Day? It's been a week now.
"Any response yet Day? It's been two whole working days now."
Don't hold your breath ... it's Ryanair after all.
"Well curiosity get the better of me, so after searching the website for the answer and drawing a blank i have emailed Investor relations direct to ask."
Any response yet Day? It's been two whole working days now.
"Well curiosity get the better of me, so after searching the website for the answer and drawing a blank i have emailed Investor relations direct to ask."
Makes sense to ask them, since they're the ones who should know. Hopefully they'll respond with clear answer.
Well curiosity get the better of me, so after searching the website for the answer and drawing a blank i have emailed Investor relations direct to ask. Will post any reply
Interesting to see Parvus (uk based) increasing their holdings today from 4 to 5%.
Not sure how this all fits in with the inability of UKpurchases anymore?
Would suggest that its not as blackmand white as suggested.
yep, nothing in there and i log in most days. Will post if i get one.
Initial plan was to hold till 20e (which is the level Mikey is retiring at and when he goes i was going to exit anyway) and i got in in the low 9's, so already substantially up, if i get forced out im hardly bothered to be fair, i've made a killing.
I noticed Wizz did the same thing, and applied the 'restriction' rules proportionaly as a ratio accross their non-eu ownership base, so there is clearly some element of variance and choice in how the restriction is applied. Its not a hard and fast set in stone rule.
My guess is rya will still endeveor to increase the % by purchase restrictions and grow it organically that way, only forcing sales if they end up with no choice.
"no letter received fleccy, will post if i get one, but i cant see it myself."
If your shares are held within a share dealing account, you might not receive a notification by post; If this is the case, have you checked for any notifications sitting unread in your online account mailbox?
no letter received fleccy, will post if i get one, but i cant see it myself. They will just grow ownership by current purchase restrictions rather than pi55 off a lot of investors.
"He needs a further eu ownership of 20%, so who gets the lucky letters, everybody? nope, of course not, what criteria does he chose to force people to sell?"
Your guess is as good as mine Day, but I would assume that RYA would have to treat all shareholders, within a class, equally.
Since all UK traded shares are classified as restricted, my guess would be that they'll write to all shareholders who bought UK traded shares, which are now classified as restricted. Again it's anyone's guess how they'll deal with EU citizens, who hold UK traded stock, maybe they'll exchange their holdings for Euro traded shares.
Day if you hold UK traded shares in RYA, then in all likelihood you'll receive a letter, as will everyone else who own restricted shares. Out of curiosity, did you receive a letter advising you that your shares are now classified as restricted?
"PS. Didnt catch the Good thing about RYA you was going to mention?"
Haha, I did start writing a post with some of the stuff that's good about RYA , but my missus asked me to do job as I was typing, and I ended up deleting the post.
Am still yawning a bit, but did hear that part of his talk. Its clear he is trying to drive eu ownership upwards from the current 30% area as per eu rules, and that is why he has restricted non eu ownership to drive that upwards, and clearly from the last talk he gave that eu ownership is on an upwards trajectory. His words (spoken with a rather boring monotone, unusual for him) imo were meant to shake out a few more non eu people to drive that further and nothing more than that.
He needs a further eu ownership of 20%, so who gets the lucky letters, everybody? nope, of course not, what criteria does he chose to force people to sell?. He certainly wont write to every non eu person - that would be 80% of his stockholders, and if they are all 'forced' to sell there would be a huge overhang on the market and the doomster would likely get his BS 8e as the price collapses. Do you seriously expect him to do that? Esp when he is on for retirement when the sp hits 20e?
He may write to me, he may not, but does he force me to sell of transfer my shares to my wife who holds an eu passport? Does he stop eu nationals living in the uk holding shares? can he stop UK pension companies from holding as a trust/business? Would people (big holders) take him to court for singling them out? etc etc
More to the point, why would he want to do this to 70% of his investers and reduce his financial and investement options? The reason is he has to be seen to comply with eu rules. All he needs is another 20% to change hands to actually comply, its a bluff to shake a few more % out over the coming months, and lets face it he's hardly a fan of the Eu at the best of times. If the ruling on ownership is so important and actually (or wanting to be) enforcable the Eu would have made him doit by now already surely. Having a rule in place means nothing if its not enforced.
Besides if he encourages a few more to sell up and adds more new purchasers from the eu, the need to force anything dissapears, this is what he is trying to do imo. He certainly wont want 0% UK ownership, money talks. Sometimes read between the lines is best.
PS. Didnt catch the Good thing about RYA you was going to mention?
"But in reality, nobody expects they will need or even want to do that. Non Eu investors hold so much stock in this businesses they WOULD go belly up if this was ever actioned and they are not stupid enough to carry this out."
I don't want to send you to sleep Day, but O Leary was really specific with his words. He said they'll be writing to Non Eu Holders, in the coming months, in the first instance, and forcing them to sell if necessary. The relevant part of the "Intro & Presentation" starts at 19 mins and 45 seconds into the presentation. From the Horses mouth:
https://investor.ryanair.com/results/fy-21-results/
"Ryanair today (18 May) announced that it has issued a 5 year, €1.2bn, Eurobond at a fixed coupon of 0.875%."
Looks as though they've issued a new bond, pretty good rate at less than 1%, I'm guessing their Net Debt is now approaching €3.5 Billion, possibly a bit more.
"Easy money and at super low rates as well. Seems the market isnt in the least bit worried about lending/revolving a bit of cash to Mikey. And they are the people with the accurate numbers and expertise to work out the risk level, better to listen to them than armchair commentators i think."
"Mikey will raise sufficent funds as and when required, indeed with the initial aircraft quite substantial cost savers they will assist the procurrement costs as the phased arrival ramps up."
I'm not an armchair commentator Day, I just pointed out what was in the results presentations, in reference to the potential "forced sell-down" affecting Non EU share holders.
It was JohnBri who initially raised the issue of the $22 Billion for new aircraft, and I agree debt financing is extremely cheap at the moment. RYA pull in approximately €8.5 Billion in revenue, with around €885 Million net profit in 2019. The new Aircraft will likely improve the net profit, but €18 Billion in debt added to the current net debt of €2,276.5M, is a lot for a company who's net profit is only likely to reach around €1.5 Billion over a number of years, and they'll have to pay a fair bit of interest on that debt annually, possibly up to 3%.
It's just things to bear in mind, it's neither negative, or positive, it is what it is. Don't nod off Day, DYOR.
well blow me (figuaratively speaking of course) no sooner than 'post' clicked a piece of fundraising news appears in the news tab.
Easy money and at super low rates as well. Seems the market isnt in the least bit worried about lending/revolving a bit of cash to Mikey. And they are the people with the accurate numbers and expertise to work out the risk level, better to listen to them than armchair commentators i think.
Pang and Fb, spot on the money.
Rya are applying long standing EU ownership laws and have restricted NEW uk purchases accordingly, clearly there must be some sort of mechanism to enforce these requirements, and this is why the 'threat' to sell is in place. But in reality, nobody expects they will need or even want to do that. Non Eu investors hold so much stock in this businesses they WOULD go belly up if this was ever actioned and they are not stupid enough to carry this out. Imagine, the tricky time they'd have persuading EU people to cough up after shafting over 50% of existing holders. It just wont happen, and that is why the restriction on buying is in place instead, to reduce such a 'shock' to the system. All businesses run on debt and need to retain confidence to borrow, but from a legal perspective that unlikely 'threat' option needs to be spelled out.
As for the purchase of new aircraft, they wont all be arriving next thursday, they will be phased in over years and quite clearly with such a big order (is it the worlds biggest?) Boeing are not going to be demanding top dollar either. Mikey will raise sufficent funds as and when required, indeed with the initial aircraft quite substantial cost savers they will assist the procurrement costs as the phased arrival ramps up.
Now Fleccy, you are quite happy to bang on and on like a resonating echo about negative things here, and clearly you cause more people than just me to nod off to sleep, but, Tell me, is there anything you LIKE about Rya at all?
Maybe you had a nice cheap flight once, a smiling stewardess wink at you, or even a trip to the flightdeck for a shufty. There must be something good you can share?
"Could not a similar vehicle be applied to potential UK shareholders"
I just googled it lol, and apparently there's something called a Global Depository Receipt. I suppose it would require a company to set up a GDR for Ryanair shares, but you'd probably still have to sell your shares, and reinvest in the GDR if someone set it up. I would think the GDR's would be limited in number, and holders would have no voting rights. Again I'm just guessing.
"OK Fleccy I give up, why do you post on this bb?"
Because Ryanair's an interesting company, and I like to share an opinion.
"What is your opinion on the matter and do you believe Ryanair can compel you to sell."
They've probably taken advice on what they can and can't do. They may state that Brexit has changed the situation and they may decide to delist all their UK shares. I don't actually have a clue about what's allowed and what isn't under special circumstances. I suppose you'll find out. Really you should contact Ryanair and ask them to clarify their plans. I know BT delisted from the US, forcing all ADR holders to sell their stock.
"BT Group terminated its American Depositary Receipt (ADR) programme on 23 September 2019 following its announcement notifying of its intentions on 14 August 2019. On 23 March 2020 BT’s Depositary, JPMorgan Chase Bank, sold all remaining deposited ordinary shares and returned the net proceeds to the registered holders (after deduction of the cancellation fees and any other fees and expenses)."
https://www.bt.com/about/investors/individual-shareholders/adr-holders#:~:text=BT%20Group%20terminated%20its%20American,intentions%20on%2014%20August%202019.
OK Fleccy I give up, why do you post on this bb?
"Where does this leave American Investors who hold sizable interests in Ryanair ?"
US is different where dealing is through ADR's, as it's always been. I think this is directed mainly at UK purchases, but you should clarify that with Ryanair if you're concerned.
"U.K. residents can hold non voting shares, they are not forced to sell, also it is not a RYA rule it is a European Rule."
Indeed they can, but RYA are saying "Non-EU purchaser => sell-down notice" in the results presentation pack. In the results presentation itself, O Leary said that the board has extended it's powers, and will be writing to non EU purchasers asking them to sell their shares to EU purchasers, and if necessary forcing them to sell. It's around 20 minutes into the results presentation.
"UK nationals cannot acquire ord. shares
• Long standing non-EU restriction (since 2002)
• Extended to UK nationals
• Non-EU purchaser => sell-down notice
• Non-compliance => forced sell-down"
https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Ryanair-FY21-Presentation.pdf
A lot of the accounts stuff being talked about here is beyond my paygrade, my opinion is Ryanair is one of the best airlines at squeezing out a profit from a low cost seat. There will always be more low cost seats than higher, for me it's a bit like Primark and Debenhems.
"Do us all a favour and bore the crap out of a bb where you have an investment."
Don't tell me where to post, and I wont tell you where to post. If I was posting all positive things you'd be showering me with praise for my opinions. If you want to comment about my posts, then present counter arguments countering my opinion. Just telling someone to shut up isn't a counter arguments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-749A0fJeU