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Cyan, The now's-not-the-time-to- argument was made ever since the application to UKEF started. Shareholders must extract a PENALTY from the Executives and Board. Sam is not indispensable. There are others that know Sea Lion, and have credibility with the FIG.
Cyan, That is a compelling argument to pause Dissident Shareholder action today. Shall we evaluate what the scenario in March 2022 could be like? 1. Ombrina Mare is positive, let's say 30-50 million 2. Harbour's exit is orderly, with a payout to Rockhopper 3. Navitas stays in the project but demands 80%-90% of all the acreage. 4. Remuneration Committee recommends an extraordinary bonus to the Executives, and higher Board fees. (in a new world where oil prices are between $100-$150) 5. Executives are hinting they will approach the markets to attempt a fund raise (which will most likely fail) RKH real cash position is around $5mn, share price between 8p and 15p
You write about "... Resolutions to arrest cash bleed, preserve all assets, current and contingent..."
Generally laudable intent; BUT its far too late now.
There is minimal cash left and we need a focussed knowledgeable management on the crisis at hand. There is plenty to criticize but we have not the time or resources (cash) to attract a new COMPETANT team to replace.
If you want to install a new NED, please present a candidate and his qualifications. I do not want to see an unknown disruptive clown installed. I agree ; we need to manage what little cash is left carefully BUT the activism will cost our company cash in legal fees and the circulation of documents as well as the new NED's expenses; if the resolutions pass.
Its not the time NOW.
The time MIGHT be right after we actually receive a large amount of cash from an award.
I am sure you are worried that management will look to spend elsewhere. I think we will be lucky to receive enough to see us to first oil. There will not be sufficient to 'splash out', imo, IF we win and get paid in good time.
As for keeping all assets. Is there any value any more paying licence fees to keep the legacy SFB blocks we acquired from FOGL?
I note that MOODY spoke about divesting the Italian gas assets. Fine, because they are toxic junk with large decommissioning liabilities. BUT; I do not see a nil cost way to do it.
Is there really a value in our 20% of declining Guendalina? CIVITA has a large negative value which became evident in the 2017 failed NOP deal ( RKH were going to PAY them to take it off our hands!)
I would be overjoyed if there was a NIL cost. I would like to know how MOODY thinks it can be done.
In my opinion there is absolutely nothing shareholders can do to turn this around. Our fate rests mostly on the decision made in the arbitration. Other critical decisions are to be made by HBR ( exit strategy) and Navitas ( will they stay; what terms)
I respectfully suggest you defer your activity for 6 months. There is no way for shareholders to change our outcome for the better now.
cyan2, Without Resolutions to arrest cash bleed, preserve all assets, current and contingent, Rockhopper will not survive to next summer. I agree with your forecasts. All that I can do as a Retail Private Individual Shareholder, is group up with other PI, persuade our Nominee Stockbrokers and try to turn around this hopeless situation.
We may hope against hope for the award to come before Xmas, BUT, our 30.9.21 contains a clue as to how long the panel takes;
"Italy has requested the Panel re-assess its view on jurisdiction
? At the fist hearing in February 2019, Italy sought to have the arbitration suspended on the grounds that intra EU disputes should not be settled in international arbitration ? The Panel rejected this request in June 2019 as announced by the Company on 27 June 2019 ? In late September 2021 the Italian Republic requested the Panel re-assess their previously delivered ruling on jurisdiction based on c-741/19, Moldavia v. Komstroy LLC, a claim under the ECT relating to the provision of electricity from Ukraine to Moldova. Neither the claimant nor respondent are EU members. The ruling included an indication that using things like ICSID to settle intra EU disputes was in contravention of EU law ? The Panel asked for both sides to comment on this new material – Rockhopper legal advisers to make submission by 6 October 2021"
Look at how many months they took to throw out the initial 2019 request to dismiss on grounds of jurisdiction .
Surely this reassessment should not take that long again? Time is precious.
On page 5 of the 30.9.21 presentation are these bullet points;
"Financial ? Should Harbour exit the Falklands then the commercial arrangements disclosed on 7 January 2020 will fall away ? Rockhopper is in discussion with Navitas regarding its future involvement and funding contribution ? Possible impact on deferred capital gains tax liability relating to the 2012 farm out to Premier Oil ? Certain project wind down and decommissioning costs shared between Rockhopper and Harbour on a 40:60 basis ? The main item relates to a temporary dock facility in Stanley installed for the 2014 drilling campaign ? The exact cost and timing of this are yet to be determined"
RKH has liabilities coming out of its ears;
Yet ANOTHER FIG historic tax bill of unknown size expected ( excludes the arguable circa $50m CGT bill which could not pay anyway) At least $13.561 Million of decommissioning liabilities on our junk Italian "assets" An unknown but believed large decom bill for the dock.
We MUST receive a LARGE award from OM or hope that Naviats will assist us financially; but how likely is that they will be generous?
Do they need to help when we could collapse and they step in to to pick up the pieces at their leisure.?
Have to say that the shareholder campaign is FAR too late and will not make any difference to our fate. Whoever is in charge; whoever is putting their two pennyworth in; the facts are stark; our fate is no longer in managements hands.
We are running out of time and money FAST and belated shareholder activism will not help now, may actually hinder and delay.
Its all about HBR's exit strategy , OM and Navitas plans now; others decisions. We have few cards to play.
In the end; everything could fall into Navitas hands at huge cost to RKH shareholders.
In my opinion, if nothing or very little comes from OM award (say return of costs) then a funding raise would be very difficult without a clear defined plan and partners signed up beforehand. How long could that take?
"? Operatorship will mean spend ? Likely eventual transfer of Operatorship to Rockhopper ? Decommissioning costs ? Pushing the project forward – hopefully with Navitas involved"
That appears to be the 'likely' scenario MOODY expects. Trouble is; we are now running on vapours. We have not got the cash we NEED. After careful reflection; a fund raise will, imo, have to be announced as soon as we , hopefully, receive notice of a winning award.
The trouble is; when will we get an award announcement? Everything with the tribunal seems to run at a snails pace. We MUST get the result before the year end.
Getting hold of the cash is another difficult issue.
If we have NOT won the arbitration; imo, RKH is no longer a going concern.
Then raising the necessary funds from an equity issue is the nightmare scenario. I do not think it could be done.