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Looking to the next RKH update for possible UKEF news.
I remember the FIG being greedy looks like its not financially viable unless oil is $100+ !! No oil company will entertain this .
Sealion will be shelved for sure, why did we go to war again please remind me ??.
Itsaponzi,
Think it may be less now
https://en.mercopress.com/2016/09/30/falklands-would-claim-9-oil-royalty-per-barrel-plus-26-profit-corporation-tax
Uk moving to 25% corp tax in 2023, lot of other countries will be the same.
Bootledodger, I do not wish to be argumentative but just look at PMO 2 weeks ago 21p
now 31p No news in-between. That is indeed how markets work.
best wishes
Someone said the directors had the odds at 50:50 before the covid pandemic
We need to recognise that Harbour’s business model has been to not invest in new developments that take many years before cash is received and are inherently higher risk than buying a producing field. They also do not like to be pioneers in new oil basins with no infrastructure and add to that the disputed nature of the FIs. I am not trying to be overly negative and there are a lot of positives such as the $1b that has already been spent to date and huge follow on opportunities. This could easily be 100k bpd for many years with follow ons.
There is also going to be lots of opportunities around the world for Harbour to invest.
However what can not be disputed is Mr Market is pricing Sealion sanction as being remote. Let’s hope Mr Market is proven wrong.
What are the tax implications to oliys in the Falklands?? As I remember they were very high would like to be corrected thought!!!
Pum: what do you mean the price is wrong? Thst is what they are worth...if they were ridiculously cheap, more people would buy them. That's how the market works.
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/offshore-project-commitments-count-set-for-record-in-coming-years-deepwater-to-have-top-growth/
"Offshore project commitments count set for record in coming years, deepwater to have top growth
March 3, 2021
Offshore project commitments are expected to not only recover going forward, but their number is also set to reach a new record in the five-year period towards 2025, cumulatively almost 600 projects, a Rystad Energy report shows. Deepwater commitments will enjoy the largest growth as their cost has now become much more competitive against greenfield continental shelf reserves."
Stevo,Bootledodger, I think your odds are far too long. Where will Harbour find a better project, as operator, in such a safe place and ready to go. With so much to write down if they pass. I think the odds are much nearer evens and it is the price of 10p that is wrong (please remember they are still employing the PMO guys that got the deal ready to go before the oil bust.They understand this deal inside out )
Hope I am not overly optimistic
best wishes
Steveo:
yes...i'd call it c.5:1 now (hopefully a little shorter), if the odds were much shorter the SP would be c.30p.
If that's without an OM award, I'm more than happy to take 50p+
Harbour will have many opportunity to invest in new projects around the world. Like all other LTH, I hope and pray that Sealion is sanctioned but it is still a long odds bet which has improved from about 50:1 to 5:1 with rise in oil prices.
A sanction of Sealion will see RKH at 50p which will rise to £1+ as development proceeds to first oil. As noted this is a binary lottery ticket.
Hi Much, I wonder if they will reimagine phase 1 ? I feel with there new size, why not do back to a bigger first phase, bigger outlays but it would be a bigger prize from the outset.
LTT
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/2/23/premier-oil-to-rejoin-uk-offshore-just-in-time-for-oil-price-surge
https://en.mercopress.com/2021/03/06/falklands-extends-rockhopper-s-offshore-licenses-until-november-2022
No doubt in my mind that Sealion is going to get sanctioned. Particularly like ‘The new vehicle’s emergence on the UK stock market also comes as multiple large oil producers start to scale back spending on fossil fuels in a transition toward low-carbon energy. That means there could be “increasing asset and project choice for a well-funded company if some other operators divert spending into more diverse energy sources,” Arden’s Slater said.
Enables Harbour to carve out a niche opportunity under the radar.
This has never had a better chance of getting sanctioned and with Ombrina Mare imminent, anyone selling now could be weeping into their cornflakes 6 months down the road.
Upside potential here off the scale. At the very least my advice is stay invested post sanction until at least they have had another poke at Isobel as part of the development as overnight you could see proven reserves double.