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Wow, so much have changed in 1 day.
Looks like we are looking at 850.
Hopefully it holds.
Two conflicting headlines of transient importance and one relatively encouraging one:
‘Oil Prices Rise As Another Storm Rocks U.S. Gulf Coast’
‘Oil Rally Stalls On Larger Than Expected Crude Inventory Build’
‘BP Beats Forecasts To Return To Small Profit In Q3’
All from OilPrice.Com in the space of a few hours….. WTFDIK - or indeed anyone else.
Given that it’s the EIA report tomorrow, I’ll wait for the definitive numbers on the inventory. But, in any event, BP has possibly set the bar as regards what the market expects from Shell on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Pokerchips was spot-on when he said something to the effect that 890 looked like a good price when the sp was 930 but if it falls to 890 then the doubts would start to creep in. And well they might: it’s the last visited point of support, the next ledge below it (which looks to be in the region of 820) has not been tested in a quarter of a century: https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/charts?s=RDSB:LSE
I suspect the same small % of SHELL shares are being traded over and over again..passed from one holder to another at mostly cheaper prices
All the main shareholders have done nothing to change their belief in holding the shares...to them a 1-2 year downturn is a blip of time in the great scheme of things ..
anon3 I am afraid you’re right and I’m sitting tight now as would’ve bought at this level but all the Covid issues at the moment point to slower recovery in the economy OP and therefore the SP
Unfortunately I don't think 890 is the bottom.
I've got my eye on 850 for a top-up and suspect it could easily go lower than that.
There's just too much possible bad news on the horizon, from all fronts, imo.
I've actually been contemplating selling my holding which averages 998 to buy back in when it does fall.
Well done & good luck Bimmer, I didn't think it would get back down to 890 either.
It's just a waiting game now, relax & hold.
I jumped in at 898 with around 2k which I had in my trading account. Small holding of 223 shares. However best thing to do is now forget about them for a year.
"Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy".
Well, it just breached 890.
Whilst I know that in the long run, it would make much difference but I’m just a bit dissapointed I didn’t hold for 890.
Anyway, it’s history now.
It’s probably going to get worse before it gets better.
Hopefully, I’ve made the right decision in betting £30,000 on RDSB.
Hi guys.
I pulled the trigger today. Got 1500 shares at £9.00.
Total RDSB shares to date is 3000 shares at average SP of £10.
Looking forward to collecting the dividends whilst I wait for RDSB to go back to £20.
Willing to wait 10 years but somehow I have a feeling that it may happen in 5 years.
BP posted better than expected results.
A 3% drop from It’s close of 9.16 would see it go below 8.90.
I’m also expecting to see a steady rise on this one tomorrow & for the rest of the week.
No.....
Its all old news....
Shell are expected to make a smallnprofit of 120 million ish this quarter. Not good but better than many others
Bimmer668
"Gas contract prices....Investors have been given plenty of warning "
they reported that over 3 months ago ...and the expected results for Q3 came out a mongh ago in a detailed trading update note..so it is already very much known and built into the share price.....
Analysts are expecting a $150m underlying profit for Q3...which obviously is still poor ... and that will exclude any further exceptionals or writedowns if there are any....
The market is really concerned about further guidance and comments about further cost cutting and news of any decisions on refinary sales and capex reductions etc.
..the q3 results are in the bag and in the past, in all honesty.and probably not too much deviation from what was given out a month ago......all eyes are now very much on the future...and how the BOD are prepared for it
I think this line says it, Bimmer: 'Shell, the world’s largest LNG trader, is expecting a “significant impact” on LNG margins in the third quarter.'
So it's expected - nothing new as far as RDS (or the market) should be concerned. If they announce the numbers with shock and amazement and say their guidance has been wrong then..... they are incompetent and the sp will dive.
See recent article on Bloomberg titled
Big Oil Loses Refining Crutch With Margins Crushed Last Quarter
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-loses-refining-crutch-080000099.html
“ 4. LNG Lag
Investors have been given plenty of warning that the brunt of Covid-19’s impact on liquid natural gas trading is only hitting balance sheets now. The largest LNG producers typically sell under long-term contracts that are linked to oil prices. These usually have a lag of three to six months.
Shell, the world’s largest LNG trader, is expecting a “significant impact” on LNG margins in the third quarter. About 80% of its term sales this year are linked to oil and have a price lag of up to six months, it said in a trading update.”
Would this or anything else expected to have an impact on RDSB SP next week?
Thanks Pokerchips.
I’m set to go in at 890. Personally that’s the magic number for me as it would mean that my average purchase price would be £10 for 3000 shares.
If it does go lower than 890, I may even top up some more. But for now, I’ll be happy to buy in at 890 and enjoy the dividend whilst I wait out this pandemic to end.
With what promises to be a very bleak winter in the Northern Hemisphere, it may even go lower than 890 but as the saying goes, you can’t catch a falling knife.
Having said that I’ll be happy to buy at 890 even if it does go lower than that by end 2020.
Bimmer668,
on oilprice.com you will find as many articles suggesting oil price will go up, as there are articles suggesting it will go down....bulls and bears just pick which ever one suits their view, and the website gets plenty of page hits either way....
Short term the share price is merely directed by oil demand fears and with the US Election very close...the market could be volatile...
The thing is...if this sees 890p again it will be because of "fears" and you can be sure that at that point you then question the same thing as now..... will it go lower?..will it recover?..shall I buy?..shall I wait ?
...
at 940p it is easy to think 890p is a better bargain..a sale price...but...let's see what the sentiment is and the reasons why it does get to 890p and then see what you do !!!
I think you’ve missed your opportunity Bimmer, can’t see it touching 890 again.
Bimmer theres a very good chance you will be right, but time will tell!!
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/23/oil-markets-coronavirus.html
I need it to go down 50p to get my TP of 890
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Slip-Again-As-COVID-Cases-Surge.html
More bad news for oil
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Slip-Again-As-COVID-Cases-Surge.html
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/More-Libyan-Oil-Set-To-Return-To-Market-As-Factions-Sign-Ceasefire.html
Will this mean RDSB retests 890 next week?
Bimmer668 nice bounce for the traders which I missed but I guess I’m in the patient investment camp as have lost out in the past by changing my mind. Following other comments if there’s a revisit of 890 as a consequence of OP falling back on supply demand imbalance and on the assumption a vaccine arrives it can’t be a bad strategy to buy on the dip?
Wow , from 890 to 950.
I hope I haven't missed out on the boat.
Still going to hold on for 890 and double up when if comes.
Winter is going to be long and hard .
I think stimulus and a vaccine are the only things stopping it from retesting 890.
Let see how it goes.