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Totally agree with Boyobach. I'm looking to buy somemore at 1250 and then maybe at 1200 if that happens. Exit at 1500 for the extra shares ive bought at the levels and enjoy the dividend whilst waiting. Oil and Shell will have one final salvo, I'm certain of that. Its just a matter of time
There is no scientific concensus..... There isn't a concensus (about climate change), Tantalum, but there is a scientific consensus and RDS has known the score for a good while. Comparing the diverse views of the global scientific community to reported election or polling figures in a totalitarian state isn't exactly a good basis for objective argument.
Yes Barrie - trading is obviously not foolproof and I'm not suggesting it is. When an sp hits an upper trend line or resistance then it's either going to be a turning point or the sp is going to cut through, potentially to the next level. Nobody gets that judgement right all the time, which is why I don't generally do 'all-in' or 'all-out' - unless I've decided to exit a given share. It's a similar balance of judgement when the sp is falling. When the decision point coincides with a strong trend AND a resistance/support line then the outcome should be rather more apparent, of course. Like you, I could sell some at £15 but, being comfortably in profit at that point, I might well wait to see if it pushes further - especially given the medium term upward trend: https://invst.ly/uiyg7
Boyobach, thanks for the description of your trading philosophy. I would like to do something similar but don't really have the time or energy. So I buy and forget...certainly not the best approach & I miss lots of opportunities to get my average down by trading.
That’s interesting as I’m “overweight” at 2,500 shares currently and trade 250 share lots either buying or selling so I’m hoping the shares will rally as they’ve slipped despite the OP being robust. Maybe though some trepidation ahead of 29th announcement or tepidity over the transition strategy? I’d definitely sell off my excess 500 shares if the price hit £15 but I’m thinking by the time that happens the fundamentals may have improved sufficiently for the shares to carry on up. It’s a fascinating share, I’m just hoping the Indian variant doesn’t end up screwing us all up. GLA
In my view, bald_eagle, the 'all-in or all-out' approach reduces investing to pure gambling. With a quality share moving fairly smoothly then I'd be aiming to trade in 10% tranches but always watching the trends closely. If you get a trade wrong then you can often reverse quickly if the sp looks like breaking in the wrong direction or, more usually, trade another tranche at the next level or cycle. Had I been deep in RDS when it began to fall sharply last year, then I'd have been progressively selling the highs on the way down, because the trend was pretty convincing ,and buying-back once a reversal seemed to be in progress (I accept that , in general, you are unlikely to time it perfectly). That's basically why I move from 'overweight' (having a surplus and looking to sell) through to 'underweight' (having less than my normal level and looking for a buy opportunity). I'm currently slightly overweight RDS - so expect it to rise rather than fall. But I'll re-evaluate if it falls further depending on whether it looks like revisiting £9 or £10.
Ther.e is no scientific concensus. When scientists air views that oppose the 'alleged' concensus, they finf themselves sidelined/ isolated. Such censorship[ are the methods of politics, not of science. The concensus in the USSR 60 years ago was 99% support for the state. The lack of opposition to the prevailing view should never be the result of pressure. Freedom of thought and speech is essential for the scientific method. Climate science and it's promoters are too fascist to be motivated by science. Nevertheless the movement represents a market dynamic even if it's little to do with science.
Boyobach, to trade the shares you have to be fairly confident of the trading range. Worse case is you sell all the shares and there is a re-rating higher. Do you trade a percentage of your holding or do you go 'the whole hog'?
I think focussing on £20 for RDS will lead to continued disappointment, whereas accepting it as a nominally £14.25 +/- £1 share, with a yield in the region of 3% reflects the current reality. Progress beyond that level should, in my view, be seen as an achievable but longer term prospect. I am overweight RDS at the moment, having re-acquired shares sold at £15+ and I'll prudently trade the peaks and troughs just as I did years ago when I held RDS at around £25. The saying ‘never sell Shell’ glosses over a simple investment reality - even the best performing shares need to be managed.
"At best in the next 20 years, the world will not consume more fossil fuel than current." -================================================================ Sharefall, you may well be correct. My understanding of the scientific consensusis that we (humans) will be in a very sticky place unless we stop using fossil fuels. The major economic powers have I think realised that 'fact' and that shifting to green energy could also provide an economic & job boost. So 'IF' the politicians set the targets AND make them legally binding the transition to low carbon tech could be speedy. Lots of IF's however and politicians usually get scared (at least in the UK) when they realise it will be costly and voters may not like changing their lifestyles.
B Eagle, I think you are right but we will disagree on time scale. Even in the West, it will take a lot longer than people wish. My point mainly is the population is growing so any shift to green energy may offset rising population demand, but to reduce current consumption when the population is growing, will cost too much currently. At best in the next 20 years, the world will not consume more fossil fuel than current. Reduction IMO is a task too far, especially when economic damage from the pandemic will leave even affluent countries struggling to maintain standards of living. I looked into solar panels. Even at lower prices, without subsidy, it would take me 15 years to break even. So, guess what, I said no thank you and put the money into stocks. The dividend more than pays for my electric bill. I'm not being smug, just illustrating the scale of the challenge. So anyone thinking we're getting rid of fossil fuel consumption quickly, IMO will be dissaponted. ATB
Sharefall, I agree that the shift towards 'cleaner' technologies will be slower - especially in developing countries - than some people are predicting or hoping for. In vast parts of the world new technologies aren't cost effective or reliable enough. But the shift in richer nations could be dramatic (IMO). And the cost of those technologies will fall (look at the cost of solar panels). It could be that oil companies become like tobacco companies....getting a significant part of revenues from developing countries whilst being regulated/taxed heavily in the 'West'. At some point supply could significantly outstrip demand and organisations like OPEC+ fracture, not a given but a possibility. In the short term SHell (and other oilers) have a window of opportunity to prepare for a 'green new world'.
IMO, we will be surprised by the rebound that will follow the Q1 results. Medium to longer term, people are forgetting the collapse in exploration activity and significant reduction in shale production - these will have a massive impact on supply. Going green is very well for affluent countries. The rest of the world will still need fossil fuel to feed and transport their growing population. Until population growth is reversed, no amount of green energy will offset sufficiently the demand for fossil fuels. Sounding the death knell of fossil fuels in a year when we have had a lot of time to navel graze is all well and good, but reality will set in when we are over this - and I agree this is going to take to 2022. Coal could be dispensed with as we have had nuclear as the go to option to generate electricity. Eventually in 30-40 years, I can see technology will provide an answer to our big consumption of oil, but that is a long way off and by then RDSB and BP will have moved to become energy producers in a more diverse sense. I will also have joint Prince Philip in the afterlife by then! PS. I have an electric car and I know how much it cost to buy. Makes be laugh when people say everyone will be in an electric car in 10 years - seriously, in the UK maybe as we don't travel long distances generally and can afford the car and infrastructure to support. But rest of the world - dream on. ATB
No it will not If your looking for £20 per share then you should expect to wait between 2 and 3 years IMO, between deaths, covid, oil price, recessions and everything in-between oil use will be slow to take up once again. --------------------------------- can rdsb hit £20.00 by the end of the year ?