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Sold in 55 countries:and still cannot make a profit:Hopefully will do soon
"Brief CV of Professor Asim K. Duttaroy"
I like how he managed to keep it down to 15 pages :)
Dr H when orders start coming in from By health as you say we could get multiple orders of maybe ÂŁ4-5 m at that early stage I believe an Rns should be issued with each order as the amount will be a multiple of current revenue and notifiable ,things will become clearer .imo
Dr H,
Great post with lots of optimism. I agree with you it will be very nice if we get a good dividend and then a big payout. Hope the oldies like Unilever and Coke will be on board once BH start rolling out new products.
Yeh there is no volume at present, the share is dead. It will gain attention with China news and actual results / money in the bag.
At the end of the day we have no idea what is going to happen. Perhaps I am being far too bullish, but all the information we have seems to be very bullish.
It will be September before we perhaps get a view of income from old DSM customers, perhaps even year end.
Optimism at this scale hasn't been expressed here previously without attracting the attention of the bashing crew. From the evidence presented it does appear that this time the potential can be more fully appreciated. Fruitflow is a product that will soon have truly global reach, with the support of serious promotional activity. I share your view Dr H, wouldn't want a buy out to occur just as the long road to rapid commercial expansion appears to have reached an inflexion point. Not that we PI's will have much say in the matter. the only thing missing at present is share buying volume. Seems that many are awaiting real, tangible reports.
Relevant to the earlier conversation about why it takes so long.
https://www.cirs-group.com/en/food/products-with-the-new-health-function-claims-are-being-possible-in-china
DP64,
I think you underestimate the potential value of PXS. A share value of 9p would only give a market cap of around ÂŁ200m. That would usually be the price of a standard company that makes around ÂŁ10m.
PXS will soon be a rapid growth company that will report profit perhaps this year, definitely next year. To date PXS share price has been kept low due to lack of financial transparency, lack of meaningful growth forecast, lack of money to sustain any further losses, the constant threat of more drawdowns, terrible write ups from supposedly knowledgeable people that every time fail to understand FF and itâs potential.
As of Jan 01st this year that should have changed. All Fruitflow will be produced and sold by PXS. We should see exactly what total revenue is coming in and what the costs are. We may even get financial forecasts, but maybe thatâs too hopeful.
I would imagine, basing my guess on current stock levels, that the CURRENT total FF sales revenues will be around ÂŁ5m. The initial BH orders will be multiple of that, so at least ÂŁ10m.
Then we can expect BH and BH Distribution customers to drive significant growth. Followed in a few years by development of FF-based drugs.
The DSM prospective customers are the ones that are in the process of developing products. This is said to be significant and potentially multiples of current income.
DSM premix and gut health is a huge opportunity, but we need to see how that develops.
Square Pharmaceuticals will also likely drive significantly growth.
We could find the market cap being 500m in the next few years.
SIS reached circa ÂŁ100m after it reported a ÂŁ1m profit, the first profit ever recorded.
I donât want the company to be purchased and this significant growth to be stolen away from us. I want us to be sitting here in 5 years admiring the progress and getting lots of dividends.
An update has got to come at some point in the near future.
I'm more interested in whether IF updates us next week re status of DSM stock.
W
W$
Guys,
Many thanks for the thoughtful posts. Hope we will hit 6P with all the new lines of product and then BH offer comes to buy us at 9P.
A very exciting role years to come just hope we can get a much higher SP before bi-health offer us a buy out. IMO of course
I like to think of things at a high level. We currently sell say 2 van loads of FF per year, but the BH order will be substantial multiples of that, meaning they will order at least 10 van loads per year to start with.
Then we should see quite a few more van loads from the prospective DSM customer in the coming years.
BH sales will grow massively when they launch additional new products and when their customers (a large number of multinational companies) launch new products. This has the ability to add lots and lots of van loads.
Then we have DSM launching FF for gut health. Letâs just assume that eventually adds a couple of van loads per year. On this, Hologram are holding a virtual Innovation Summit on 10th March from 12:00 til 15:00. Would be good if anyone can join in to find out if FF is mentioned by any guest speakers or Hologram.
Then we hope to have Mexico, india and Bangladesh coming online in the next few years. The Bangladesh deal seems to be with the market leading pharmaceutical company (Square), which one would assume would not be a small deal. So I would imagine that that this adds up to a good few vans worth.
Further down the road we have FF to treat medical conditions (drug). Starting with dyslipidemia, but I suspect we will also start to more studies about targeting hypertension. We had a successful small trial and then tumbleweed.
You can see how the forecast volumes are for massive growth. Thats just what we know.
Yep itâs created a massive opportunity for FF to really stand out.
One thing I have been considering is that we have no idea how the financials will work for the BH agreement. We know that massively increased volumes will reduce the production costs probably substantially. We know that the volumes ordered will likely be substantial multiples of current production levels, we know that the value will be multiples of current total FF sales. We have no idea how much BH will pay per KG or what the costs per KG will be.
So if they order ÂŁ10m in the fist 12 months. How much profit would we make on that? It could be less than we think. Perhaps the agreement starts with high profits, but changes with volume?
Either way, it will increase the profit margin on all the non-BH orders, which we understand to be significant.
November 2016: Strategic collaboration agreement announced for FruitflowÂŽ between DSM and BYHEALTH
April 2017: MOU for a research and collaboration agreement announced for FruitflowÂŽ between the Provexis and BY-HEALTH. BY-HEALTH plans to launch a number of FruitflowÂŽ based products in the Chinese market, first launch envisaged in the second half (Dec) of 2017.
Sept 2018: Its announced that B-H are conducting 6 studies, at their sole expense, for Fruitflow and âblue capâ health claim status, as required by the China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA), with BY-HEALTH intending to make the relevant submission to the CFDA by the end of 2018.
Sept 2021: its announced that:- By-Health is now working on an extensive regulatory submission to the SAMR for Fruitflow, seeking to establish a new permitted health function claim for food ingredients such as Fruitflow that can demonstrate an anti-platelet effect, addressing the aberrant blood clots which can lead to heart attacks and strokes .By-Health currently expects to be in a position to complete the last of its eight studies and file its regulatory submission to the SAMR for Fruitflow in the first half of 2022.
Sept 2022: By-Health continues to work on an extensive regulatory submission to the Chinese State Administration
for Market Regulation (SAMR) for Fruitflow, seeking to establish a new permitted health function claim for
foods such as Fruitflow that can demonstrate an anti-platelet effect, addressing the aberrant blood clots
which can lead to heart attacks and strokes.
July, 2016: China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) published the formal âAdministrative Measures on Health Food Registration and Filingâ(Hereinafter called ânew Administrative Measuresâ) which will replace the âAdministrative Measure on Health Food Registration (Trial) (Order No.19)â, meanwhile, come into force on 1 July, 2016.
Once the new Administrative Measures implemented, there will be two kinds of policy (registration and filing) for health food produced or marketed in China.
April 2018: the State Administration for Market Regulation was formally established. On April 10, 2018
So..... not only has B-H gone from launching products to getting Blue Cap to getting a permitted health function claim there has also been a massive restructuring of the Chinese regulatory system not to mention probably major delays with trials because of the lock down measures in China.
Having a permitted health function claim will substantially increase the potential revenue that Fruitflow can achieve For B-H/PXS and if you go back to 2016 it was not possible, due to the regulations at the time, for B-H to submit such a claim.
Now to answer your question . "why it is taking so long?"
As the regulatory system has been changing in China so has B-Healths plans. The end result being greater revenue potential for Fruitflow.
DP54,
BH are not simply applying for. Health claim. The SAMR and BH are working together on this. They need to create the framework and criteria by which all foods/supplements applying against this claim in future can be effectively evaluated, whilst at the same time ensuring that they can clearly meet the criteria themselves and evidence it. They also need to agree and approve the 5 year monitoring period, what will be monitored, what are the red flags, what actions will be taken etc.
Then on top of that we had Covid restrictions, which in China were significant. The studies are carried out at medical centres, medical universities and hospitals and at multiple geographical locations. All of these places would have suffered terribly under lockdowns.
At the end of September they thought they would be wrapped up with the trial data evidence by new year. This tells us they are right at the end, but in January they still had not finished. I would assume it will be completed by the end of March at the latest now.
Then BH and SAMR reps need to finalise their submission and hit send. we have no idea how long this will take. I would hope the next part takes no more than a month or two. The board are obviously fully aware of what is going on and in agreement, so there should be no surprises, it should be a box ticking exercise. I am now thinking full approval in May/June this year??? But genuinely have no idea whether I am even in the right ball park. It could be tomorrow or it could be next year.
DR H,
Many thanks for your thoughtful and elaborate post. I still raise the same question why it is taking so long? I believe they started in 2016 now it is 2023.
The SAMR are embedded throughout the process. They would have been included in the initial scoping and testing. When trials are completed they write a recommendation to the board for its approval/ inclusion in the register. When the new claim is approved it will available for use exclusively by the applying company and monitored for a period of 5 years. After this it will be available on the register and other such supplements can submit their health claim evidence against it.
As Gix says, this is the first company to add an additional health claim that we are aware of, which is why it will gain significant attention. As it stands there are no such products in China that inhibit platelet aggregation and there cannot be for at least 5 years following the approval. Each of the other health claims on the register has hundreds or thousands or products using those claims. This is why a large number of multi-national food and drink companies have expressed strong interest in commercialising FF. as it stands, companies are restricted in their heart health range. When FF is available it gives them a cheap, approved, no risk option.
On top of all that, By-Health are targeting a specific health risk that has been highlighted in the Healthy China 2030 initiative. This is likely why some of the funding for the research has come from grants. BH will also get government help with getting their product out there. They will help break down barriers.
It is an enormous opportunity for PXS, BH and other companies. We already know Nestle have FF in their labs, so I would not be surprised if they are lining a product or two up. JuneYao Dairy were releasing at product in 2016 (Werdery Qin Drink) with massive volumes, but the regulatory framework changed in 2016 and stopped them in their tracks.
The China Cross Border E-Commerce distribution parter agreement is separate, but complimentary to the BH agreement. I assume that to mean that BH will supply FF+ Omega 3 in China with Blue Hat approval/logo exclusively to the CBEC distributor when Blue Hat is approved. This means they can hit the ground running, order it from BH and can immediately sell it in shops and pharmacies, for which they will have had a year to get those sales channel agreements in place.
Some interesting points and protection from ip theft for 5 years ,very positive for pxs .
Just to add.
Once By-Health have the new health claim approved it has a a five-year monitoring period. During these five years, the new claim is proprietary to the company (By-Health), and others may not use it. After the end of the monitoring period, if no issues are observed, SAMR will add the new claim to the approved list of claims for health foods. Through such listing, anyone can then use the new claim on their health foods.
sphinx, Yes that's how I read the article. Blue Cap in as little as 3 to 4 months. This is much reduced from the initial 2 to 3 years (from memory) that it was taking not so long ago. But, as you rightly point out, By-Health is "seeking to establish a new permitted health function claim for foods such as Fruitflow that can demonstrate an anti-platelet effect" and as far as I can tell this has never been done before by any organization or individual and therefore impossible for us to judge timescales for the new health function claim.
DP64, No.
So based on that analysis it seems so many of the company are getting the SAMR approval. What on earth our friend BH still could not get the much waited SAMR approval!! Are they reinventing fruitflow so that they can by pass PXS???
Gixer youâre posting on Advfn tells us that the Registration process can take as little as 3 months , because BH are trying to claim a new category I expect this to be a bit longer but Looking promising once we get these trials finished . Imo https://www.foodnavigator-asia.com/Article/2022/07/20/most-blue-hat-health-foods-approved-this-year-made-immune-antioxidant-claims
Healthspan just emailed me saying a price increase from March , will be ÂŁ15.45 for 30