Blencowe Resources: Aspiring to become one of the largest graphite producers in the world. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-15/peru-candidate-seeks-bigger-cut-from-mining-not-state-control?sref=XaOBUhw3
So no more talk about nationalisation. Should he win, that will not be the case. "Welcomes private investment".
http://www.country-data.com/cgi-bin/query/r-10288.html
Old news. But it describes past experience in Peru with nationalisation. To sum it up: BAD!
And apart from that, the free trade agreement with Canada means it's not a huge issue (it should be done at market value, if at all - don't think there's more than 1% risk of it regardless). And the 1 million refugee Venezuelans in Peru is a constant reminder of where you don't want Peru to go.
Up 12% in Canada today.
Also an interesting read:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/18/keiko-fujimori-would-be-lesser-of-two-evils-as-peru-president-says-nobel-prize-author-mario-vargas-llosa
Excellent read and more importantly is that Ptal recognise being a Peruvian company they don't want to alienate the local population, if they can gain the trust and support from the indigenous people that is a very important stamp of approval.
I would imagine it would recognised in far greater circles than the locals.
After reading this I feel even more reassured that the social unrest issues are behind us (at least for a while). PetroTal is "simply" doing too much work locally. Of course election is another matter. I'm confident the experience from the 80s will stop any nationalisation plans, should Castillo be elected. It's a crazy non-popularity competition: Most Peruvians are likely to vore on the "lesser evil" whoever that is.
http://www.rumbominero.com/noticias/rse/petrotal-apoyara-en-la-elaboracion-de-diagnosticos-y-expedientes-de-proyectos-tecnicos-productivos
Hello Viable ref Thu 17:16,
It's sad to read that people who have devoted parts of their lives for the betterment of others are treated in such a way, bad things happen to good people.
Why do people act like animals when we have the intellect to know right from wrong?
I have no answers other than people need hope, opportunity and a chance to improve their lot, examples from those who lead us could a long way if they actually had morals and acted honestly on behalf of the people they represent.
Not sure I am in agreement with your last point if I have understood it correctly but my understanding is that populations in the West have been falling Europe, UK, US, Canada, Australia Japan if immigration is taken out of the equation, hence houses for €1 in Italy, and Japan opening up to allow immigration which hasn't happened before.
Since 1960 when population growth was 2% we are now at 1% and with more rights for women to choose a life they wish to lead this going to decrease further.
Not many families have more than two kids these days.
I hope you are not a card carrying member of the Bill Gates solutions to world problems.
https://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=24
@ 17:26
Sturm, a top post from you.
Wonder who sent it?
All points made echo loudly.
Could bounce really hard tomorrow.
addendum: a simile
I lost 20 mallard eggs from a single nest yesterday.
My Kent rural area is overrun by foxes.
Mallard numbers are severely depleted.
Do I take the obvious step to preserve the habitat balance?
This is supposedly an answer from PetroTal. Was posted in a facebook group (I copied it from another BB):
"thank you for your email and interest in PetroTal. We would agree with your assessment that this is an exciting time for the company as both financial and technical fundamentals have never been stronger! We appreciate your thoughtfulness around the election rumblings and offer the following management commentary regarding todays share price volatility:
1. Two large block trades made today materially moved the market placing some downward pressure on the share price. We believe this was a knee jerk reaction.
2. In addition to point 1 above, knee jerk macro reactions to news events are a market standard now(currency, etc), from an international perspective, and we believe this will normalize in a short period of time going forward. Given management's deep bench and experience in international oil and gas, we have heard commentary like this before when election time rolls around and no matter who is elected, candidate's policy softens greatly vs what is said to a crowd at a pre election rally.
3. Nothing fundamentally has changed with the company from a technical and operational perspective. As stated in previous news releases, we believe the company is in a strong financial and technical position as we look to execute our 2021 drilling program.
4. PetroTal does not wish, at this time, to comment publicly on political events in country that could polarize investors, or other non investment stakeholders.
5. We believe the market has overreacted to commentary from Castillo on nationalization of industry when in fact, we found that a deeper dive into his policy would likely indicate a potential country wide royalty review of all industry(including oil and gas)
6. We believe based on Humala in 2011 that extreme commentary(either right or left) will eventually translate into a more center message to gain more votes as the election progresses
7. High absenteeism among the middle and upper classes, that tend to vote center and center right exist, which should be visible over the next 2 months given the second round voting is on June 6
8. We feel extreme commentary regarding industry will never be followed through with actual policy given the recent massive 4B government bond raise and recent material external capital injections into the country. External market capital still wants to enter the country, and frankly already has. We feel this will backstop and be considered in important policy decisions no matter what government is elected. Nationalization of industry would obviously have negative implications on future external capital inflows into Peru, and given the recent ones into the country, could have covenants attached to them to further help facilitate level headed decisions when pen hits the paper."
My instincts changed and I squeezed in another buy late this afternoon. The SP may bounce quite hard tomorrow or next week.
Raxfactor - You might find my counter argument on "sympathy" disagreeable, e.g. -
when a close friend having devoted 15 years of his retirement from medicine to HIV/Aids research and TB treatment is beaten senseless, tied to a kitchen chair and robbed, or
another one, a lady 61, is mugged, knocked to the ground on her way to work, and hospitalised, or
another generous lady passes food to someone at the front gate. By the following week there are nearly a dozen of them outside abusing, threatening and one assaulting her.
We just don't begin to understand the complications that arise and their scale. Lima is a hotbed of crime out of control. Further up there will be ~1 million unaccompanied children gathering at the Mexico/US border in 2021.
I think it was George Bernard Shaw, when in Cape Town (1947), who urged the city fathers to tackle growing poverty on the Cape Flats. They responded almost immediately but never caught up with exponential population growth. Since that time global numbers have increased by at least 5 billion. The problem is insurmountable until we stop breeding at the current rate.
Even during the election I think Castillo was arguing for something different to nationalisation. He had an argument about 70:30 and 30:70, but I don't really understand whether he knew what he meant by this. Maybe his theorist did (VLADIMIR ROY CERRÓN ROJAS)
Some interesting views and outcomes from the upcoming elections and it does look as though the wind of change is blowing through Peru.
Ptal however have a good working relationship with the state run refinery which benefits both, so strengthening that bond would be wise.
If nationalisation comes about perhaps Ptal would not be a prime target as others who bob and weave over taxes are reluctant to contribute to local communities and abuse the environment while in the main just wanting to maximise profit, they would be my target.
In many ways I sympathize with their views, when companies usually backed by political influence from outside sources and countries run slip shod over any regulations that are in place that they don't wish to adhere to by bribery or threatened political force or foreign governments threats to withhold loans etc.
anything seems fair game for large multi national comps to get their way.
I have read some comments about socialism and Venezuela but that was not the real issue there.
Think US policy (political warfare) backed by bankers supporting the US shale industry which has never been cash flow positive becoming the world biggest oil exporter and driving oil down to $20 bbl, probably to inflict economic damage on Russia, which failed miserably.
However Venezuela a country floating on oil and using its natural assets for economic reform is bankrupted by the US actions, and its hailed as a socialist failure, it's nothing of the sort.
Who is over there now picking over the bones the good old US.
Now the political will has softened I don't see the bankers rushing to support US shale even with a rising oil price, heavy losses have concentrated the mind and they are not so keen to throw good money after bad unless it's coming from the FED.
JH - Well presented points of view. I don't have any response to smother sentiment one way or the other. My 30+ years business experience has been in southern and east Africa (esp. ANC). The cries of the impoverished, if anything, got worse. The incoming ruling elite rang the changes, corruption accelerated, economies suffered and demands from the destitute grew.
Somehow those countries staggered on although the consequences are unlikely to be reversed. My knowledge of South America is poor. Castillo, if he wins in June, is going to discover many of his and Libre's ideas will not come to fruition. It'll be another bandaid with increased royalties/taxes, etc.
Peru desperately needs more of PTAL's oil. Shooting MZ in the foot is a negative step in killing off already declining national oil production. Peons have little understanding of economic wellbeing. They view everything from the radius and status of their favelas and lean-to shacks.
For myself, I keep hand in pocket, i.e. not adding to an otherwise sound investment.
Looking at the oil production from the country CNPC produce about 12,000 barrels a day. Now they also want a return on their investment. They are, of course, a company from a notionally communist country (China).
Its all about maths. Investment is about putting in resources (people, cash, expertise etc) and getting a return.
What is interesting also is Veronika Mendoza who appears to be more extreme on these issues than Castillo worrying publicly about him doing a U turn on this issue as a previous president did. Peru has done this before and U turned and as soon as they face the reality of maths they tend to do a U turn. The difference with the right on these issues is the right don't try to do things this way anyway.
Fujimore is I think the only candidate Castillo can beat. However, we don't have any certainty that he will do so. With Mendoza's crew they have just under 1/3 of congress. There are some people in other political groups that may not support impeachment, but he does not have the guarantee of a blocking vote against impeachment (which is 1/3 - 87 seats)
It is quite a complex issue and in a sense you can read into Castillo wanting to change the constitution that he thinks the constitution will prevent him from doing what he wants. I have read the current constitution and it differs from what Wikipedia says.
In the end the fact that Castillo wants to change it says a lot to me.
In the end, however, communists face a difficulty if they want investment. If they want people to provide funds for the country and their expertise then whether the people are Peruvian investors or Canadian the investors will want a return. Investors will accept risks, but the more the risk the more the return they want.
Hence by creating shifting sands they increase the risk and therefore investors want more return. Similarly looking at the balance between revenue for the country and the investors does not really help as the investors don't care about the balance of revenue. The investors care about what return they get on their investment. Hence if shifting the balance lowers the return investors won't invest. The problem with the 70:30 figure is working out what the return is. When an international company invests it will pay people locally for services. Petrotal in my view has been quite good at doing work with the local community. I think that is important in all circumstances, but particularly in these.
If Castillo wishes to really concentrate on his 70:30 figure then where does the CEO come into this. He is a Peruvian who is the son of a previous Chair of the State Oil Company. The corporation is registered in Canada and I think therefore would rely on the Canada-Peru FTA to resolve any property rights disputes (Property rights are a human right under Article 1 Protocol 1 of the European Convention of Human Rights - that does not apply in this instance, but it is relevant from the perspective of analysing disputes).
Congress still has the power to approve budget and reject laws. So the president is not a dictator, lets not forget that.
https://reliefweb.int/report/peru/venezuela-migration-crisis-peru-second-largest-destination-venezuelan-migrants#:~:text=Attachments&text=Peru%20now%20hosts%20over%20one,of%20Venezuelan%20asylum%20seekers%20worldwide.
Tough morning. An idiot - a kindergarten teacher at that - wanting to tear up the constitution and wreck an already fragile economy. A million extra mouths to feed from Venezuela and a semi-literate population which thinks a village clown in a Peruvian fedora has a solution. Commonsense will take root at some point but there's a bumpy ride ahead.
Another Mugabe. Another ANC. Hopefully not another Bolsonaro or Chavez.