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iLOVElithium
Recommend.
PRE-PRODUCTION
The market [analysts etc] values a company by --peer-- analysis.
For example, the Indonesia exploration co on AIM - Liberum did a peer analysis of another ASX co, also exploring in Indonesia [copper] that was taken out and used this example in the note.
VALUATION
It is useful to always know the value of the co one is invested in especially if they have a JORC eg PREM's Zulu lithium project has a JORC of 20Mt vs Ghana lithium explorer, also with JORC of 20Mt and only recently upgraded to 30Mt but still NO DFS yet [currently new situ is the co is in bid-situation]. This is also history. As iLOVElithium said, the mkt cap is around £250m to £350m depending on the share price.
AMUR MINERALS
Although in Russia, this exploration co received a takeover bid of some US$105m from recall.
This was multiples of the mkt cap even though their RNS stated that the
VALUATION DONE via "Fair Value" was in a range and it attracted a lower range because o;f the turmoil in Russia. This is a nickel project but it serves to illustrate that
VALUATION done presumably as norm by an investment bank has to be at "FAIR VALUE" as required and the AMUR RNS stated that PEER VALUATION was taken into consideration at Mergers & Acquisition level. This is now history.
So, always good to know the value it will fetch in the market given it was said by G.Roach, CEO of PREM that he didnt want to sell Zulu even though there was in Zimbabwe press that there were offers but no one can verify that unless G.Roach tells us etc?
So, always good to know what is fair value that underpins one's stock?
All part of DYOR and due diligence.
Thur, 19 May 2022.
@Bick, there are benchmarks out there.
Atlantic for example in Ghana and UK listed which holds an mcap of between £250-350mil depending on the share price, whilst currently having no production. Piedmont also hold 50% interest whilst Zulu remains 100%.
30.1mt at indicated and inferred status, at my last check, which Zulu should exceed over time and not factoring in the EPO.
So using that one benchmark as an example (there are plenty more on ASX), a 200mil+mcap in the run up to first production is very likely in my opinion.
M_Night,
It is questionable whether the progress you predict below (funded pilot plant, fastrack to production, RUS, EPO results and significant DFS progress) could result in an increase in mcap of £135m to push overall mcap past £200m. Personally, I don't think PREM will see a mcap of £200m+ until they start receiving income from production (likely mid-2023 if they go with pilot plant) or a significant bid is received for Zulu or the company as a whole (potentially August 2022). For the avoidance of doubt a £200m mcap equates to a SP of 0.89p.
On good results, including funding for a pilot plant (without dilution) and publication of an actual strategy I could see the mcap approach £90m-£100m which would result in a SP of 0.40p - 0.45p.
I would still favour selling Zulu or the company as a whole. If the sale achieved $600m shareholders would receive about 1.60p per share (CGT @ 20%, USD/GBP = 0.80 and assuming costs of £24m associated with doing the deal). If PREM were to receive €1b, shareholders would receive 2.75p per share. I would be happy to exit at either of the numbers above, given it would be a short term and low risk exit at 5.5x-9.5x current SP.
Bickmaster
M_Night - not quite accurate I’m afraid.
The only sustained rise we got was when we had the week or 2 of still unexplained buying. Nothing to do with imminent RNS’s.
And unless I’m a trader (which I am no, but perhaps you are) I couldn’t give a **** if the SP goes to 0.54p then drops all the way back down. In fact, that’s even more annoying than just not going up.
Then you wrote a paragraph with multiple “ifs”. We don’t need any more ifs. We needs FACTS.
I recall you were saying similar things at 0.18p, from which we then went to rise 200% from and hit 0.54p, as significant news did land.
I can envision much more than a 200% rise from 0.28p if a funded pilot plant, fastrack to production, RUS, EPO results and significant DFS progress is demonstrated in the next couple of RNS's. So somewhere over 0.84p and and an mcap over £200mil.
just a thought - is anyone on here of the belief that maybe Prem/Suzhou are deliberately dragging their heels because they want to time peak production with the anticipated peak in lithium demand and therefore cost / mt? I've seen some quotes that lithium demand is expected to grow well into 2030s and with that the cost per mt should follow. I don't agree with this waiting approach (partly because im biased and impatient in wanting return on investments now) , but wondering if anyone thought it had some merit?
"when it seemed news was due", not why.
PB - over the last year I have said on a number of occasions why it seemed news was due, "why are people selling?"
Every time so far the sellers have been proved right. This is why I will not believe anything good is imminent (using my definition of the word, not GR's) until I see it in an RNS. Maybe, yet again, the sellers are right?
If I were a betting man (which I am otherwise I would not be in PREM), i'd say RNS by end of Wed 1st June, ahead of Jubilee bank holidays.
Otherwise we will have all the right to complain to GR :-)
In the mean time, i was re-reading old RNSs and was reminded of the below from Aug 2021:
"The Scoping Study identified a target production of 84,000 tonnes of Spodumene concentrate and 32,500 tonnes of Petalite concentrate per year for an initial 15-year life of mine ("LOM") to be the most appropriate option and was based on prices of US$800/t Spodumene and US$400/t Petalite concentrate prices respectively."
With today's prices, this is fairly mind blowing if we can extract it and go into production. Worth waiting for news, don't understand why sell right now.
Additional MM added is the biggest sign news must be very close.
Great summary ROMAN ,, need to associate the words POTENTIAL AND IMMINENT IN WIKI pages to describe the way PREM state something which will never happen
I believe the news will be due next week, 2 weeks to complete the review then a week to review which would of been last Friday, then this week to go over the data collect format it before then sharing it via RNS, I’d expect to see it late Friday or any day next week, very good potential here :)
Gonna take something to top that post for comedy RWolf. Still at least it's not raining in Zim anymore! Even the twitter trolls constantly asking for results on every Prem tweet have got bored and stopped asking now. Laughable - but hopefully will make everybody here will do well at some point.
Watcher36, I will tell you a fact we will get an RNS in one week. Not one weeks time but one of the weeks of any year.
Until then we continue with various tweets of employees stood by cylinders of rock, a few hard hats, maps and tape measures, some guys staring through magnifying glass at one solitary pigment all while 15,000 metres of drilled rock gathers dust under what Prem GENERALLY REGARD as POTENTIALLY the BEST shelter in Zimbabwe
maybe next week, or the week after, or the week after...same old ****. It's now 3 months (21st Feb was last Zulu update) since we heard anything on core results and DFS progress.
Send in the clowns....don't bother...they're hear
.....it will be my drum!
ha and you thought I meant something else - you dirty minded naughty boy!
it won't be my chest I'll be beating.....
The same was said about RHA and twitter pumped up MNH to the same degree.
Take it all with a pinch of salt.
You can all beat your chests when the revenue starts to come in.
Acker
Caps to show the difference between "generally regarded the largest...." per PREM given only 35% of 3.5km S T R I K E has been MRE'ed.
In the article, "Possibly the LARGEST...." is the norm for all publications.
Key word is "STRIKE."
News there are more key words in that sentence than you have capitalised...
"The project is GENERALLY REGARDED as POTENTIALLY the LARGEST lithium peg in Zimbabwe."
We are waiting for that to actually be proven! Everything has potential until it's proven either way.
The frustration is we never seem to get to the point of proving it
From Premier African Resources website:
Link: https://www.premierafricanminerals.com/zimbabwe/zulu-lithium
"The project is generally REGARDED as potentially the LARGEST lithium peg in Zimbabwe."
" MRE covers only 35% of 3.5km strike." etc.
Exploration target .....and all the other details.
so it's been printed from The Herald....a state-owned newspaper in Zimb. The Zimb government will of course beenfit hugely financially from Zulu progress so there's your conflict of interest. I don't want articles, Prem tweets of pretty drill rigs and a couple of guys under a shelter cutting cores. Shareholders and the market deal in facts and data. Herein lies the issue with Prem
I think Spurs will be best football team in the country soon....Meaningless without any data i.e. results.
Who produced that article? Snowking by any chance?! I jest but of course we need to remember conflict of interest in such articles. I think this has one more pump and dump before we hear any news, maybe two if GR lives up to his shocking reputation. Make sure you all capitalise and put money in the bank (or invest in gold if you believe the reset is upon us)
Let's hope that the wording changes from "Considered possibly" to something more solid. Dug more holes than a gopher