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Thanks micktrick ... a valuable paper for us willing to better understand the science/terminology/quantification and commercial decision making.
Alas, after a couple of glasses of Chablis the words are readable but not understoodable ;-)
Sent to inbox for tomorrow !
I think ZeusAllah's comments on the SP earlier in this thread were pretty much spot-on.
The SP, right now, is not reflecting at all any real rational analysis of the potential true VALUE of the asset(s), whether one may believe that real VALUE to be high (as I do) or low (as some do - and, excluding the LL crowd, there are very rational grounds for taking a negative view).
The fact is that the SP has become derailed by issues un-related to the fundamentals.
Namely, crap IR (spectacularly so), crap corporate finance "strategy" (spectacularly so), mis-handled placings, poorly handled director exits and a general sense that, outside of operational matters (at which PG seems very good), there is a real lack of control and steering ability as regards how the company is perceived.
That is not going to change soon, as far as I can see.
There has been no appointment of a competent corporate finance house/broker nor an appointment of a competent IR advisor - and, until those are both fixed, the perception will remain of a headless chicken running round the coop.
[I write this as one who does believe very strongly in this company and who has not sold a single share since I first invested].
But, in that context, ZeusAllah is totally correct that the best way out now from an SP perspective is some concrete good news (preferably communicated in a non-botched fashion). And he is further right that the reaction to news (good or bad) is likely to be vertical - in either direction.
There is some brilliant analysis on here (and I hope it continues, though I myself be not clever enough to contribute much on the technical side).
But the reality is that, for the moment, no amount of fundamental analysis is ging to make a blind bit of difference. T
he SP is trading now on fear and lack of PRD leadership credibility (totally self-inflicted)
There are 2 ways to restore leadership credibility: i) deliver some real tangible results and/or ii) appoint some credible advisors on corporate finance and IR to show the management team even begins to understand the debacle they have - totally unnecessarily - caused over the last month or so.
“Why would they drill down dip on an exploration well?
Makes no sense.”
A comprehensive rationale is provided here:
Yes, I agree. Let's have a decent RNS in layman's terms.
Well,....there's one thing I have the BODs to thank for is the understanding of porosity, permeability, and that having to pump more mud to stop gases from escaping up top (meaning there's higher pressure in the reservoir than first anticipated) .
It's made us having to do more research on geology lol.
Why can't they explain this in more layman's terns in a decent RNS?
And like I said a while ago, the amount of gas captured by the mud is not
representative of how much gas there is in the pay zone. It is a function of
other factors, such as the drill speed, viscosity of the mud and the make up
of the source rock.
Oh look. Gas shows - it’s what happens when you find some gas ….
1. n. [Drilling]
Gas that rises to the surface, usually detected because it reduces the density of the drilling mud. Gas detectors, which the mud logger monitors, measure combustible gases (methane, ethane, butane and others). The mud logger reports total gas, individual gas components, or both, on the mud log. In extreme cases, gas visibly bubbles out of the mud as it returns to the surface. Because the mud does not circulate to the surface for a considerable time, sometimes lagging several hours after a formation is drilled, a gas show may be representative of what happened in the wellbore hours (or many feet) prior to the current total depth of the well.
Answered your own 'innocent' question there Geo. They don't test mere gas shows. They are testing, ergo you incorrectly interpreted the results as only gas traces.
Whether it is commercial volume remains to be proven, but the wire logs have established that it may be.
Read the post again, Geo.
“Not sure where this is going”
Over your head, it would seem.
Why would they drill down dip on an exploration well?
Makes no sense.
+ Any pay would have been logged as gas on the wireline and you only test logged pay zones not gas shows.
Not sure where this is going.
Well for what its worth, my official position is that they have hit the missed pay updip from GRF1 in 72, as alluded to by some fairly understated 'confirmation of bright spot' talk. This is possibly commercial and the impending rigless testing will prove it up, with an updated CPR on advance. MOU4 will be a further derisk and lend itself to the ultimate triangulation of the main yet-to-be-drilled Kitchen well, which Paul has given hints to and this may be the 'other well' they have mentioned funding for, albeit in a very minimal way at present.
All a bit hush hush. Conoco are waiting in the wings to take us out. And will do down the line.
I do expect a climb pre-spud (assuming no other good news before then) as that is the nature of people, they will speculate. however, i agree it may be more muted and closer to it. That said, I would also expect news on T&T or testing on MOU1 before then which means the sp may be either much higher or much lower dependent on outcomes. I am accumulating and holding for the former, but I am also taking the opportunity to buy a larger chunk with a mind to help de-risking sooner than I otherwise would. If there is no climb, I wont de-risk and just play for results.
Good evening zeusvalhallah, agree wholeheartedly with your loss of trust comment due to recent comms, they have been abysmal, i know i tapped out a post the other day replying to someone about the state of play in T&t, and commented that they are under strict covid measures at moment (until mid august) but personally i think that Pg /anyone/flagstaff could issue some statement/news to at least give some hope to us shareholders(employers)....as earlier post today today, new company presentation due in September.......that's a long time in future when we are all awaiting news on contracts/mou1 update(enhanced Cpr?) At moment, still holding a considerable amount of shares, and same as you awaiting anything in black and white, agree that any news (good) this will fly so wary about offloading any in case Rns lands.....
Come on Pg ....give us something to regain confidence/hope.....not written in techno speak.
Oh....and British lions now got uphill struggle after todays bruising encounter:(
My opinion Noc is that this wont climb in anticiaption hardly at all, simply due to the loss of trust as a result of recent comms. I think however, that the SP will fly off the handle with solid unequivocal black and white news that supports the market cap. Now, that could be Trin or that could be news of signed and sealed deals. But the recent communications and Rons sales fiasco I think has in all probability killed the speculative and usual pre-spud climb prospect. What that really means is that lots of folk will be caught out when news lands and the SP performs and vertical lift. Hence why I am not selling a single share. If it drifts lower, which it might, then Id be interested to pick up a bunch more which I have no shame in stating I might flip at 100% or so as I have my eye on another venture and I am already well loaded here!
I think its a very strong 4 - 12 month play. For the record.
OK cheers TT. Thought 'derisked', taken literally sounded rather too good to be true. Reduced risk then. In that case, if we held at 15p whilst drilling mou-1, I'd expect, all things being equal in Ireland and T &T for us to climb a little higher pre spud, given the reduced risk for mou-4, and the potentially bigger size of prize.
Any comments anyone or is that merely wishful thinking on my part?
It takes a big man...etc
Having said that, I am pretty thick skinned
In simple terms, it has reduced the probability that MOU-4 has nothing significant to find for the drill.
It hasn't entirely removed the risk, but the results of MOU-1, as well as potentially being commercial in its own right, increased the prospects of success at MOU 4.
That was indeed a bit too strong on my part.
Clearly nerves getting the better of me.
So my apologies.
The hope is Nic..........!
that it's not a duster......... :()
All the best (ya know...........! :)
Been doing my (GRH) homework . . . Why Guercif & what has it got?
Also, my buy yesterday showed as a sell - Can't believe those list!!!!
What was your band named GRH? Off topic I realise but hey, it's Saturday. I was going to take the weekend off from reading this board but a query sprung to mind so on topic..
I'm sure I saw something whilst I was unable to post and ask that MOU-4 was now 'derisked'. If I wasn't dreaming, are you able to put in laymans terms what that actually means?
GRH - What was that lovely tailor of yours called ?
I have seen it all now
Firstly ...repeatedly being called ‘a cheap suit salesman’
And now...being hauled over hot coals by PastaBelly (keep it classy)
due to my alleged inability to write The Queen’s English (in my 2011 post)
Both are slightly wide of the mark
Indeed, neither my allegedly cheap suit
nor my alleged lack of command of English Grammar
caused The King of Saudi Arabia
to question the wisdom of dealing with me on a $5 BN deal
Nor ...when I was much younger...
did such alleged impediments cause any loss of audience share
when my band used to gain bigger ...font size ...billing than Rod Stewart
And now I am in the virtual world ...
as occupied here
by some folk who have clearly scaled the very pinnacle of E&P investment
Funny old World