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There's a big article in the NY Times about the effect of Coronavirus on the city of Blagoveshchensk on the Russia-China border. It mentions the Amur Bridge but isn't explicit on whether work is suspended. Most of the businesses getting badly affected are in the service industry and they don't have any reported cases yet but I wonder if our proximity to Blagoveshchensk and the Chinese border is weighing on us today? Our nearest operation to Blagoveshchensk is Pioner and at a rough Google Maps estimate I'd say it's about 300k's away and while our workers are likely to have family connections there they mostly live on site at our op's in accomodation blocks so we're actually well placed to remain isolated. I wonder if POG should put out a statement detailing how production can be maintained even if Coronavirus does cross the border.
And I also add, at that (mid 2022) point it is slightly foward looking i.e three years of cash not two.
But is is perfectly reasonable to predicit 20p share price increase every 6 months from now.
PS fully diluted by then
CofE,
my opion is as follows. Yes it will go to £1 at around +- the middle of 2022. This does not require share buyback . By then based on Gold at $1650 POG should generate $1.2B cash over the periods from now until then. They do not need to pay off the $500m bond, simply roll it over. It is infact negative if they do pay it off. They will refi at a much lower interest rate. This is because what is important is not the amount of debt but the Debt to EBITA ratio. As I mentioned previosuly this will correct this year, based on a trailing 12 months calculation. They accumulation of cash will simply add value, on a dollar for dollar basis. This is based on a PE of 12.
So I pedicit within 24 months this will be £1
Agree with that and POG will hopefully make it. I can see a continued slide from traditional stocks so a good chance. Only thing I can’t understand is why is ASOS still AIM when it has a market cap over 2 billion. Any ideas how this selection process is made or is it optional. Dare say FTSE 250 and FTSE 100 companies have more regulation controls?
There a worse things than a bid for a company with good prospects.
Post from ADVFN board.
Timeline for next Ftse Quarterly review (March).
Tues 10th March. COB Mkt caps will be the cut off point for deciding on promotion/demotion.
Wednesday 11th March. Meeting to review Ftse100 and 250 constituents.
Monday 24th March. Changes implemented.
So the Mkt Cap of POG at close in 2 weeks time will determine if it stays in the Small Cap segment or is promoted to the 250/350.
Last Friday POG was in position 345 (sp 20.35p).
Since then the 250 has fallen 4.9% in the past 2 days.
POG sp is slightly up in the same time.
Place 325 or higher results in automatic promotion.
As of Friday there were 6 places up for grabs for 250 promotion.
If current trends continue, I would say there is a definite chance of POG being promoted next month.
If not, June would likely be a sure thing.
Dear Retired Banker,
Not sure I agree with the 80 years. The company will pay down debt. Which in turn increases the profile of the company. They will increase profit and will be producing more gold. They will also buy back shares at a rapid rate once the books allow them too. Unlikely they will need new bonds once these expire. That alone take the share price higher. You don’t need to be £4 billlion market cap to be £1 a share. Just implement a buyback. Only problem with this it will increase the larger shareholders %. Pushing them to the 30% which may or may not trigger a bid.
With RB's suspect epidemiology (okay I admit I had to look that up!) and KRSS' dubious meteorology its been a bad day for POG investors discussing the wider world :) On a more positive note the SP seems to be kicking on again.
It didn't originate in Spain - it was excessively reported as occuring in Spain as post WWI the sensors were suppressing the reporting of the illness in non-neutral countries, hence it acquiring the popular nickname. I have no idea if there was a link to pollution from wartime though of course there were a lot of surviving troops with damaged lungs and general malnutrition following wartime.
CofE "Will this go to £1+ in time"
Facetious answer is to simply say YES ... 2% inflation and it will get there in about 80yrs !
If instead you're asking what will make POG a £4 billion company
... I'd say the answer is something around 2,500k oz production with gold at $1800-$2000 and not much more debt than current. Getting from 500k oz to 2500k oz is going to take more than 5yrs in my opinion.
Spain is relatively hot Country, and winds always blow towards hot area from cold places. so all Europe's pollution moved to Spain.
Ok, Even if it was not linked? Can they take risk after all this
There is a chapter in Quraan , with heading "the smoke" . a ditto scenario
KRSS - "IRC is not rubbish, now Corona virus , Spanish flue was linked to pollution from World War 2"
Would like to point out that Spanish Flu was 1919 ; WW2 was 1939-45 ... I assure you time traveling pollution was NOT the link
Even if you meant WW1 ... should point out Spain (where the Flu originated) wasn't involved
China has shutdown its low grade iron ore mines as a prompt reaction. They had stopped using low grade iron ore before but started again in late 2019. They knew it.
With 64% iron content or above, can be shovelled directly into blast furnaces without going through a "dirtier process known sintering", where low-grade ore is mixed with other products to create a blast furnace fuel.
IRC produces fe65 ,I assume it contains 65% of iron content.
IRC is not rubbish, now Corona virus , Spanish flue was linked to pollution from World War 2, Let the Chinese swallow some paracetamols, next time they will use only Fe 65, Fe 65 price can Jump $200.
Ok far off I know but what is everyone’s feeling? Will this go to £1+ in time. To do this they will need to clear debt and reduce share count.
Genuine question as thinking of adding and would be more than happy with 5 times the money back based on current share price. Obviously not tomorrow before anyone says you are ramping which I’m not. I can’t see anything that big that will stop the train. Obviously IRC is a little rubbish. I’ve always asked why not sell it? Or has IRC had its POX hub moment with IRC and now resolved will start making sense.