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Thanks - I'll drop them an email.
Does anyone have a direct email? The contact given on the website is via their communications firm (phc@secnewgate.co.uk)
I think its generally referred to as the growing seasons which typically in Northern Hemisphere starts March time, its also worth considering PHC partners which hold supplies - during the recent IMC presentation management indicated this was a good way to gauge both sales and possibly usage.
Drop management a line, very approachable and happy to answer questions.
Hi all,
I'm trying to get an idea of when Harpin is most consumed by famers in North America in H2.
Does anyone have details of which months Harpin is used on crops in North America?
Have the company every produced a calendar, by crop, showing the months in which harpin treatment is needed?
Thanks
Have a look at the premium paid for HTC by Mars today, we know other FMC's (Pepsi) have a toe in the ag markets..
Food for thought (pun intended).
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/HOTC/recommended-cash-acquisition/16211897
I think the article is referring to Private Equity rather than normal investment funds, still a similar issue though.
Yields have dropped with expectation of early rate cuts, this is good news as it may trigger a rotation back into growth sectors or at very least stop the outflow by private investors.
Cenkos were the only market maker offering in size today at over 6p, so some improvement from last few days - could be having a rest or the 400k last night may have done the job.
Interesting FT article: "Wellcome Trust warns of private equity ‘shakeout’"
https://archive.ph/M1elr
From the article:
"With a difficult market for exiting investments, Moakes expects to see a pick-up in distressed sales “because people who got overcommitted to private equity and other illiquids will be forced to raise that liquidity wherever they can, even if it means a deeply discounted sale”.
Moakes also criticised the financial engineering that some private equity groups are resorting to in the tougher environment. For example, they have begun borrowing heavily against the combined assets of their funds to unlock the cash needed to pay dividends to investors. "
A pick-up in distressed sales? When does it stop?
Some poor leveraged PI'S maybe
It could well be some of the IG holding declared recently, intensity seems to be increasing often a sign towards the tail end.
Sorry Montacute, you deserve better analysis. .. pulled myself together now.
Truth is no one knows why we are dropping other than sells are outstripping buys.
PHC have many overhangs so suggest a big fund sell a load. Sadly we are very illiquid, so when someone dumps millions of shares we drop like a stone.
I believe in buying into fear, not selling and, despite my rant, I think PHC will do very well, they have market leading products that sell. So I’m not selling my shares; but very frustrating.
DYOR
For the shares to be down like this (13 weeks in a row I think) the redemptions would have to be huge. Do the funds have any PHC left? And where are the RNSs’ about % threshold changes.
Where are the directors buying shares or a modest share buyback from reserves.
You’d think a small announcement to say all is okay, because all I see on Linkedin are smiley faces standing behind tall crops.
Oh, and by the way, you’re not having my shares Mr Fatface - you know who you are.
Rant over.
So with all the "good" news SP is today down again and about half where I came in. To go or to stay: that is the question. Any further analysis would be of interest..........
Lots of consolidation too, Chr. Hansen with Novozymes is but one recent example.
If any one of these major want a head start on pipeline with or close to, regulatory approvals then PHC has to be a prime candidate.
Valued at way below any realistic valuation.
If you compare the 2 companies over the last 5 years the sp tracks very similar apart from the last 3 weeks where a 35% divergence has occurred so hopefully it follows the last 5 years and phc have a 35% pop up or Novozymes has a 35% dive which I very much doubt
I thought the below para from Novozymes recent results encouraging following industry wide destocking:
"Growth was supported by destocking gradually levelling off in the food-related areas and increasing customer demand for our sustainable biosolutions"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/novozymes-accelerates-growth-q3-track-060100297.html
From Sept PREtec announcement:
· MOSHY (PHC25279) is a foliar product registered in Brazil to control foliar diseases in coffee and sugar cane.
· TEIKKO (PHC68949) is a seed treatment to control harmful soil nematodes in soybean fields. This is expected to be registered in Brazil before the end of 2023.
· MOSHY and TEIKKO add to the portfolio of Plant Health Care products available to growers in Brazil.
· Discussions with potential Brazilian distributors of MOSHY and TEIKKO are ongoing.
· For the six months ended 30 June 2023, revenue in Brazil was up 48%, driven by in-market demand for H2Copla® (Harpinαβ) and Saori® (PREtec).
That's a great find 2p, highly informative article especially the tables which really illustrate the growth potential (Table 2: Nematicide products introduced in Latin America within 3 years).
Some big names in this market
Direct link to article
https://news.agropages.com/News/Detail-47987.htm
A new product from Plant Health Care, PHC68949, based on harpin-derived peptides for the control of nematodes, is being filed for registration in Brazil. According to the company, as a peptide-based technology, PHC68949 breaks down rapidly within the environment, has no adverse effects on non-target organisms, and has a zero-day pre-harvest interval with no restrictions on maximum residue limits in harvested seed or crops. PHC68949 will provide growers with highly flexible nematode control because it can be applied as foliar spray, or as a seed treatment via both on-farm and industrial seed treatment.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/agro-pages-296b571a_the-rise-of-bionematicides-tackling-the-activity-7129769345018204161-nlpU?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Citrus fruits have been terrible the past few years
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/%C3%A1ngel-mar%C3%ADn-931a5630_proact-aa-bioestimula-un-bosque-de-300-hect%C3%A1reas-activity-7129783826003746816-XDMs?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
15% y/y increase would be okay in my book, of course happy if this is exceeded but also mindful of the lumpy nature of revenues, smoothing out year to year may help appease investors.
Morningstar updated, not a huge fan of this site as there are no dates but it does show Crux selling down further, could be our distressed seller in which case has to be close rump with data being delayed.
PHC shareholder page has yet to update but looks okay when adding in Newlands and Scobie recent purchases.
Just as a closed out this page after posting, CBNC has a feature on funds money flow, again interest bearing instruments receiving most of the capital.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/t-bill-and-chill-why-jack-bogles-strategy-of-lazy-investing-is-making-a-comeback-.html
Concur with Investment Approach as posted below.
Glad we did a fund raise before the recent crash.
I listened to the IMC presentations a couple of times. At the time of broadcast, the company would already have known some of the H2 data since we were a couple of months in, and there was some bold optimisim on show. So I'm hopeful for H2. Drops like the one we've experienced are tough for investors and we have to have faith in the companies and funds we purchase. I quite like the investment advice below.
--------------
Investment Approach
In our opinion, business ownership offers the best means to protect and grow capital in real terms over time. It
provides us with a claim on the true sources of wealth creation. Patient long-term ownership of a limited number
of carefully selected businesses, each providing products and services that satisfy society’s needs, is the core of
the Company’s investment approach. It has no defined time horizon for each but hopes to own them for decades.
Simply put, its goal is to buy well and hold on.
It will seek to partner with competent and honest entrepreneurs or business owners who share with us a
community of interest. These individuals will have the privilege and burden of overseeing the distribution or
reinvestment of company cash flows, a key determinant of the rate at which our capital will compound over
time.
In order that this wealth creation accrues to us as owners, and is not competed away, each of our businesses
should have barriers to entry that are scarce and difficult to replicate. They should also operate with capital
structures and business models resilient enough to endure life’s inevitable vicissitudes.
We believe neither ‘risk’ nor ‘value’ is a number that can be found on a spreadsheet.
Given the sanctity of capital we see ‘risk’ as the likelihood of permanent capital loss. The careful selection
of each business the Company owns is its best protection against this outcome – even then we will make
errors of judgement. As long-term business owners we do not view asset price volatility, or illiquidity, as
risk. You should know in advance that it will not avoid large drops in the share prices of the companies it
owns. By understanding its businesses and management partners we hope to have the resilience to survive
these falls and the courage to take advantage of them.
We ‘value’ scarcity, resilience, adaptability, ingenuity, probity and competence. The Company will look to
own as much of this as possible for every portion of a business it acquires. Price volatility may provide it
with the opportunity to acquire a greater portion of this value relative to the price we are being asked to pay -
a welcome outcome.
https://www.valu-trac.com/administration-services/clients/dominium/VT%20Dominium%20Holdings%20Interim%20Report%202018.pdf
By chance, Lion Trust is featured in today's Mail article
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12717623/The-FTSE-350s-worst-performers-2023.html?ico=mol_desktop_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html
Many of the Investment funds I follow are sitting at multi year lows, the whole redemption thing is feeding on itself as funds sell assets to meet their obligations. Funds held by other institutions such as Lion Trust are in a worse position with both retail and institutional selling, Lion Trust for many years was highly converted by the likes of Buffettology which hold sizable stakes.
Hopefully a change on rates will see some of the declines reversed in 2024 for everyone.
What are investors thoughts on H" this year Sept IMC Q & A session was interesting, Jeff's sounded pretty confident when quizzed on figure need to for f/y.
H1 $5.6m which equated to 1% increase on 2022 H1, this leaves a whopping $10.3m for H2 to achieve f/y $15.9m guidance.
H2 - 2022 came in at $6.3m so adopting a more cautious approach I would suggest in the region of $8m is more realistic, therefore f/y 2023 would come in at $13.6m.
Even if they roll over some of the revenue into 2024 it would still equate to a very reasonable 15% growth on 2022 numbers.
Numlungu
Quite right about a seller who has been relentlessly dripping shares into the system. When the seller pauses, the shareprice creeps back up, so defo oversold.
In some ways it’s good that we lose weak holders with too much skin in the game. Also, I’m sure we have a few new retail holders to diversify the shareholder base.
It boils down to whether you see PHC as a good company with a future or a dud. For me it’s a great company with a hell of a future. I’m a LT buy and hold person so this is the Black Friday sales for me ( although I don’t want too many more).
Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-10/china-hungry-for-crops-amid-bad-weather-and-food-security-push
I sold out after the fiasco of a threat to leave LSE without explaining the alternative... Still following the company though; how much cheaper could it go as there seems to be a determined / distressed seller(s) slowly feeding more shares than the market can digest.
China buying up stocks of grain and soybeans means next years harvest can expect to be sold at higher prices so farmers may be prepared to invest more in inputs. Whether PHC can sell those inputs is another question but overall the market should see positive influences.