Provident Financial Share Chat (PFG)

Agree bigpunt
Maybe people are starting to sense a bargain
Some buy side trades this morning - an odd number made up to an even 100,000!and two other similar odd numbered trades - let’s hope it’s the start of a gentle uplifting

Barrie why would the price increase after the ex-div date? In a stable market the price would usually retract by an amount equal to the dividend

Damn - put commentators curse on PFG as 830,000 and another large sale gone through though share closed slightly better up 2.60

I doubt there’s going to be much action on this share until we get a trading update that confirms profits and forecasts in line with first half trading so I’m going dark until someone comes up with a post! GLA hers to 200+ now it’s ex div

There were 3 ordinary trades of 50,000 shares bought earlier today which is positive.

Fingers crossed the share price has stabilised at current level but I’ve set a stop loss at 175 just in case

Although I visited Moneybarn a couple of times I never got close enough to the business to understand it fully - so can't really give any insights into that side of the business. Sorry!

Thanks for that Jake
Without doubt there was a shift with the move from agent collections to insourced and remote collections, and the company held their hands up to that mistake. But that is CCD and that is now a closed business.
If you have any insights on how the vehicle finance business in particular is running, please do share

Thanks JolietJake

Interesting insight
Losing touch with your customers is the biggest failing of senior management in any business and second is not rewarding front line staff for doing their job well
Appreciate the sentiments and time will tell
I’m holding for full year results and crossing fingers

Hi Barrie
I used to work at PFG and had a great 20 years there. Have lots of friends who still work there and absolutely no axe to grind at all with the company or anyone working there - I really hope they turn things around but I vividly remember someone asking me what had changed in the company in my time there and the biggest change, in my opinion, was the Senior Management team had lost touch with its core customers. Home Credit is a unique industry so maybe now that has gone - things may improve. Fingers crossed.

Drop today not unexpected

GLA LTH

I’m considering adding at this level but DYOR

Just wanted to do a post where I could get maximum number of TLA in but seriously I hope all who have held faith with this company including me are rewarded for their loyalty and patience

Large buys and sells of 115,000 today

Maybe just maybe PFG has reached bottom and the share price has stabilised st a discount to NAV

I’m holding and would dearly like to be in a position to buy more but that’d probably put me in the invidious position of owning a much higher percentage of the equity of a listed company than I ever have and one that’s risky to say the least

GLA I expect this board will be quiet now until the company makes further announcements to the market hopefully with some advance warning maybe Q3

bigpunt

I guess on the basis all the bad news is behind us I would bet the ranch on this share as it does seem to be a case of buying £1 coins with the commemorative 70p platinum jubilee ones

Problem is I just don’t know if there’s more bad news to come either on cost control or impairment but you are right maybe a bit more time is needed to bottom that out

If the full year results aren’t clean I’ll reluctantly be heading for the exit but meanwhile have set a stop loss of 175 minus the interim dividend on part of my holding as if they fall much further somebody knows something I don’t

I don't understand this thread at all and it is incredibly unbalanced.

The sub-sector is on it's knees - look at Morses and NSF - Le May or whoever chose to exit CCD deserves huge credit and at least a good run of at least three years to show how they can grow whilst running off a division that previously was the entire business of the Group.

What would you rather: Your shares worth 5p or around 200p at a great time to buy as the dividend is reinstated?

Ubik , yes not much appetite here...low vols, missed the cream from 185p to 200p , sold...with the slimmest profit kept in shares.....not my best choice along with SN , good luck hope you get money back

This is crawling back up, so someone is buying. Still don't feel great about my £2.95 average. If this recovers I'm out and will not be getting back in.

Theborn
They shot the lights out alright and are now stumbling around in the dark - as you say the only consolation is I believe I’ve recently been buying pound coins with the new jubilee 70 pence pieces but sadly they’re in short supply being limited edition issue but a year ago it now appears I was buying two pound coins for a fiver - I agree with your assessment that it’s time to give someone else a chance that can reduce the central costs and hxulcolrdoh (cryptic handle BTW) that their communications are so recondite as to leave no option than to assume the worst which I think is costs are out of control and the possibility of a profit warning in the full year figures is already priced in or largely so plus the risk of rising impairments is higher than management have provided for?
I’ll hold now at my average of 275 but wished I could afford to buy my way to an average below 250 but am in for c £12K which for a small time investor like me is a big risk as I’ve currently got £32K in Shell but am £11K in the money do effectively have reinvested unrealised profit in what is proving a problematic share - time will tell but I’ll raise my stop loss on 1,000 of my holding to 175 if the share goes above 200 once it becomes ex div - GLA and happy to exchange views as the economic backdrop becomes clearer

100% agree. He's had over four years to address this. I've been in this share average down since the day he arrived and has so far seen c.70% of the value erroded in that time.
My anger is less that they've undershot estimate (AGAIN), but have done their usual mix of incoherent reporting / reshuffling accounting polic to try and fool investors into thinking they've knocked the lights out. When they've done anything but.
I've just read today's BOE release on money and credit and £1.8bn of new credit was issued on credit cards in June, this has been rapidly trending upwards for months now, yet PFG are delighted in their uselessness at being unable to covert this into new customers for themselves.
All well and good shouting about how fantastic the marketing campaigns have been.....but marketing should be judged on bottom line, and once again, they've undershot and not added any value.
There is clearly value in this company - the fact it i trading well below its break-up valuation shows how attrocious the market sees the perfoamnce and expectations of the management, but gives me some comfort that as a value investment this still makes sense (and I hope a competitor sees this and looks to acquire them as that's the only was I see the share price going above my current average).
Barclays downgraded target yesterday from 410p to 370p - but still, that means they see 100% upside on this in the coming months if management can perform even half competently.
It wouldn't surprise me if we see a flush out of provisions at year end to save the day and scrap to low end of FY analyst guidance - I can't see them hitting it without that.

I really don't think PFG is best served by MLM. I don't think he is in control / on top of things.

Browsed the last annual report. It is a multimedia mess and ridiculously the thick end of 300 pages long. I don't know who MLM/PFG thinks are the audience for a share holders report. It is anything but focused.

First brought Provident Share in 5/2017 @ 3280 (£32.8) Sold Them For 2362 Lost A Shed load Said I Would Never buy again but here I am again. Just would like them to go to 250+ to get me money back

Hi Ubik_Fresh

I know what you mean as I’ve had to sell elsewhere to finance the purchase which means I’ve risked returns I might’ve had elsewhere plus increased my exposure to a riskier share

It’s a big gamble for me and one I’ve mulled over but if there’s any future for this company I need to give myself the best chance by averaging to cut my position sooner and plan to raise my stop loss if the company SP does manage to go back over £2 but the annual results are last chance I’m giving the management in terms of no more BS about jam tomorrow and I rather fancy someone bidding to unlock the value I believe exists within this business.

Wishing you best of luck Barrie. S

Sadly, I don't have the capital to average down, so am stuck bag holding my shares at average price of £3. I'm not putting any more cash in until I see more buoyant news. A lot of the market looks like this presently, a definitely a tough time to be an investor. Only think keeps me sane is that my index funds / ETFs are relatively stable.

Hi Theborn et al

For better or worse I’ve doubled down and added 1,000 more at 186.277 - I’m going to calculate my average but I think I’ll be somewhere in the ball park of 275 and I’ve set a stop loss of 160 on 1,000 shares which I’ll raise with any recovery in SP
The shares will qualify for dividend so I’m effectively marginally in the money but the SP seems to assume the management are hopeless or the prospects of the business are poor given a repeat of profit for H1 in H2 means £100m for a company with a market cap of c £470m and a dividend of
c 15p a share is a yield of 7.5% adding the dividend back to current SP which is about double the rate I’m getting elsewhere albeit none of my other shares have been the basket case this one has turned out to be

GLA I’d like to think there’s someone out there who’s looking to buy the company as tilts good value IMHO and meanwhile some PI with deep pockets has bought 100x my investment.
The two buys of 342,000 are c 0.25% of the whole company so not an inconsiderable buy and for that reason I’m following the money hoping someone out there is more savvy than me and prepared to punt it DYOR but on past form I expect we’ll hear nothing from the company whatsoever for at least another 3m and it’ll be late Jan 2023 at the earliest before we get a glimmer of how the full year has gone unless of course it’s bad news :-(

Two ordinary trades at mid 180s
Not sure if Directors but if so that’s a big buy or could be II as £1.25m purchase
I’m tempted to go in at this level but will have to sell something to do it - would average me down nicely from my current in excess of £3

In fact, the H1 results are deteriorated by 2 factors:
1/ central cost -> I miss better explanation what is behind -> 30 mio
2/ CCD closure cost (I did not expect them) -> 10 mio
3/ personal loan loss
With the central cost on the level of last year and without CCD closure cost, acc. to my calculation the EPS for S1 2022 would be 0.37, which might lead to 0.8 for whole year 2022.
With conservative PE 8 tis shall lead to share price 6,4.
=> the key is to eliminate the mentioned 3 negative factors ASAP, as the credit cards and vehicle finance seems to be more and more profitable (question is if it is not caused by some shifted efforts to the central cost)
I am long here and still believe in the share price recovery to 5+

I'm making a general comment that there are two ways to get analyst forecasts down - with or without a profit warning. The presentation was poor, and there are other areas where I am critical, but I am taking a rounded view and will happily build my position at this price level