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I withdrawal the question. I check red/dit and theres an entire thread on this...
Scot, As always, thank you.
Impossible Question for you, but whats your best guess based on time line on the RNS of the new estimates/upgrades. I've gathered no earlier than late August, but probably later. Is this wrong?
10:18
Hi CEObaib - I don't doubt for a second that PANR will seek to delineate the resource between the HRZ and the TD of Alkaid-2 at some point in the future. It's just that the primary purpose of Alkaid-2 (by a mile) is to drill the horizontal, perf and frack it to gather as much data as possible on flow rates. Maintaining the integrity of the wellbore and minimising risk was vitally important for Alkaid-2. Nonetheless, we're looking at substantial upgrades to the SMD, Alkaid Deep and the original Alkaid anomaly. Management has specifically flagged incoming upgrades in the RNS plus attendant interviews so now it's just a case of *when* the upgrades are announced and the *scale* of the upgrades. Good stuff.
Hi SunZoo - agreed about this accessible resource (ie. roadside drilling in the disturbed corridor) because it will allow more speedy development => cashflow at the beginning of development => more attractive for external investors => higher NPV of the assets => higher equity value to PANR shareholders.
A phased development with incremental growth in cashflow heading eastwards from the roadside could improve the commerciality of the project by a substantial degree. If so proved, PANR management's hand will be strengthened when negotiating farm outs or a corporate sale.
3stand, i see this feature beyond this depth as a positive and something that would certainly interest a big player later in the field's development. As you say, we don't need it now given the abundance of oil that is already above this zone.
thanks Scott, appreciate those comments. i know it's stating the bleedin obvious, but that's a staggering amount of accessible resource. hoping for the best possible news in late sep/early oct
I would just add to Scott's quote from Telemachus, think Deepwater Horizon on the Artic Tundra, our shares would be worthless. I for one am quite happy they stopped drilling when they did.
11:24
Please ignore Ddraig's ill-informed post. The decision to cease drilling had nothing to do with any permit paperwork. As previously advised by Telemachus:
"The casing program and Blow Out Preventer (BOP) Stack were designed for normal pressures down to the top of the HRZ. The design has to accommodate the maximum pressure brought back up to the surface (using a gas gradient) so Pantheon chose not to drill into the overpressured zone (and knew before they spudded). If there was a risk of running into a fault that might communicate pressures through the HRZ, then neither Pantheon nor the regulator would want to take the risk of exceeding the certified working pressure of the BOP.
This is not a big deal nor a surprise to Pantheon and we should be pleased that we have deepened the Lowest Known Oil (LKO) and can now extend the area under closure down to this level, which dramatically increases the contingent resource in Alkaid.
Now we just need to show good initial flow rates and sensible decline rates to support 1-2 Mbo recoveries per well and we are off to the races. This well result reconfirms my view that we have a >80% chance of pulling this off."
It was never, repeat never, in the company's plan to intersect the HRZ in Alkaid-2. Ddraig has come over all feverish again about the HRZ on the 88E forum. This despite the fact that for the last couple of years he's been one of the more realistic 88E posters who has advised his fellow 88E shareholders to move on from thoughts of commercialising the HRZ. An astonishing about turn unprompted ***by either company***.
Please listen to Telemachus over Ddraig on matters O&G and Alaska. One is a world class expert in the sector, the other comments on the mental health of anonymous posters with whom he disagrees. 'Nuff said.
12:15
Hi SunZoo - if you're talking about the *combined* "Alkaid anomaly + Alkaid Deep", the recent data from the vertical hole at Alkaid-2 proved Bob Rosenthal was correct when forecasting "the same again" underneath the original Alkaid-1 anomaly discovery. As such, I believe the *combined* Alkaid recoverable resource will be at least 300mmbo v's the current contingent resource of 76.5mmbo. Note also the improved permeability and porosity data recovered at Alkaid-2 which points to an upgrade to the conservatively guided Recovery Factor.
If you're referring to the recoverable resource which can be produced from gravel pads within the "disturbed corridor" on each side of the Dalton Highway, then I defer to Telemachus' analysis where he now calculates the 'roadside' recoverable resource figure to be c.400mmbo (from the SMD, Alkaid anomaly and Alkaid Deep).
Happy to be corrected but I think the disturbed corridor is 5 miles in width, 2.5 miles on each side of the Dalton.
that would be one intresting drill to explore this region....next year. did anyone catch CPAC republican conference yesterday? usa is aiming to return to energy independence as soon as republican patriots are back in office.
would it be reasonable to guess that Alkaid could have something like 200m barrels recoverable, based off the recent updates? similarly, how much of the SMD can be developed from the Dalton highway - and just how far east might these 2 zones extend?
11.00 - almost certainly is more below the 8,500ish feet they drilled. Permit granted didn’t allow them to drill further. AOGCC cited that it was to ensure they didn’t penetrate the oVer pressurised HRZ source rock. If that’s true then not unreasonable that the AOGCC may have been using other data it had to protect the integrity of the well and results of the 3 target zones. But that’s just my take as clearly I don’t know exactly what led them to the covenant
Because going lower might have hit a higher pressure zone than their blow out preventer could of handled, done for safety reasons and not to jeopardise the pilot hole
picked this up in the last couple interviews, could be wrong, jay and bob think they could be more oil beyond 8000 feet. if this is the case, why were they unable to go beyond 8000 feet?