If you have any questions that you would like to ask Zephyr Energy, SpectrumX, Scirocco Energy and Power Metal Resources please submit here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
These posts are unnecessarily long.....
CF hasn’t been involved at board level in Amryt since 2017, but if you’re so keen on their reporting strategy why not simply move your money over there? There is no obligation to publish those revenues, and plenty of reasonable reasons not to, depending on how deals have been structured etc.
Even CF's other company issues range bound forward guidance..
Amryt also today published its first quarter results and reported that its revenues for the three months of the end of March rose by 8.7% to $48.4m.
The company said the first quarter of 2021 was was extremely busy and it delivered a number of commercial and regulatory successes during the quarter.
It said its two commercial products, metreleptin and lomitapide, continue to deliver solid growth across a host of metrics including revenue, EBITDA growth, cash generation and market expansion.
Its EBITDA increased by 115% compared to the same quarter in 2020, the company added.
"Given the strong performance of the business during the quarter, we are now increasing our revenue guidance for 2021 from $200-$205m to $205 -$210m excluding any potential contribution from the proposed Chiasma transaction, which represents growth of between 12% - 15% on 2020," Dr Joe Wiley said.
Ryan here are 2 companies forecasts that I own that give solid quarterly earnings per share and revenue estimates.
For the quarter, Micron (ticker: MU) now sees revenue of $6.2 billion to $6.25 billion, up from a previous forecast of $5.6 billion to $6 billion. The company expects adjusted profits for the quarter of between 93 cents and 98 cents a share, up from a previous estimate of 68 to 82 cents. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Micron now projects 51 to 56 cents a share, up from a previous estimate of 34 to 48 cents.
Micron increased its forecast for non-GAAP gross margin in the quarter to a range of 32% to 33%, from a previous forecast of 30% to 32%. On a GAAP basis, the chip maker now sees gross margin of 26% to 27%, up from a previous call for 24% to 26%.
The updated guidance preceded an appearance by Micron CFO David Zinsner at a virtual technology conference hosted by Morgan Stanley.
Texas Instrument's Chief Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi said it’s still too early to say whether the trade dispute is hurting demand, or if order reductions are a natural cooling off following two years of torrid chip-industry growth.
“Demand is slowing across most markets,” Lizardi said in an interview. “What we’re trying to figure out is, is it just the semiconductor cycle or on top of that do we have end-demand slowing because of macro issues? We don’t know.”
Fourth-quarter profit will be $1.14 to $1.34 a share, the Dallas-based company said Tuesday in a statement, and revenue will be $3.6 billion to $3.9 billion. On average, analysts had predicted earnings of $1.38 a share on sales of $4 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
If the markets think Covid is over and done with, just see what’s happening in China despite their iron fist control over the population…
Looking like the Delta variant is going to over run Chinese cities. Maybe some sort of business with China might still be on the cards as you wouldn’t want to trust China to run a laboratory secure enough to handle a deadly virus in a challenge study?
Too busy or doesn't care and I hope it's the former. DIM will be marketed as soon as the spin off is ready. It is the precious gemstone in orphs crown after all.
Been saying this for months BeContrarian. Yet the constant de-ramping continues from some, it is clear now its better off just ignored and put to one side (But guarantees this post will be met with some more negativity as always).
Amazes me why some are invested here, and have very little positive to say. If I was as down on Open Orphan as some appear to be, I personally would be out the door in the blink of an eye.
I think bronx is trying to ask some reasonable questions, however I don't think most of them are questions CF can actually answer.
"1. Guaranteed range for revenue" - How can he possibly do that. There are enough moaners already at CF trying to forecast. Plus we are in a contracts business, who knows what opportunities or lack of opportunities could occur between now and end of the year, that's part of the risk of the business.
"2.If you claim OO share price should command 8× revenue value (because OO is the No.1 in it space) then Investors should have hard numbers for 2022,should they not?" - most on here have been more Conservative then CF with 4x and 6x valuations. Ultimately this is up to the market to decide and is just estimation based on the loosely related companies in orphs space. Not sure what bronx is referring to about the hard numbers for 2022.
"3. Is the laboratory actually booked out or not and if it is booked what are the maximum revenues it can generate annually?" - CF already confirmed in a recent interview all clinics are fully booked until the end of the year. (He also clarified fully booked meaning full at 80% capacity, because of the time needed to disinfect the rooms and get the equipment and trials set up, you can never be 100% full).
"4.Is there a new contract signed with the UK Govt because of the delay in the characterisation study or if not are OO being compensated." - Can't disclose that information. No point even asking. All he can say is that they have reserved slots for the three studies at 2.5m each.
"5.How much cash on the balance sheet as of July 31st?" May potentially be able to answer that one. But ultimately it depends if he wants to try and surprise the market in September or he wants to get it out in advance. I belive he said in the last presentation he would like Leo tools to keep doing them with him and I would expect that Leo will be updating us on the 9th regarding the numbers, if he is taking part in the presentation.
"6.Is Hvivo doing the Phase 2 trial for Codagenix?" - probably can't disclose that information either, but it is highly expected Orph will be doing it. Why would they do phase 1 with Orph and then decide to swap to somewhere else. It wouldn't make sense.
"7.Where is Maurice Treacy and why isn't he promoting DIM to a wider audience?There has literally been no marketing of DIM." We have seen little of Maurice and in fact if you look at the annual report you will see he didn't attend a single board meeting. That speaks volumes to me that he is either too busy or does
I invested in OO as it will prove to be a good investment in the medium term…..I just don’t get the negativity on this board.
Have patience (a virtue!) and you will be rewarded! I will come back and say ‘I told you so’ next April. In the mean time….chill out people and be kind!
There are some simple market overlays that are being ignored, not just Co specific. AIM stocks particularly those with any Covid connotation have taking a decent whack since mid April, Mr Market decided that Covid is over & its back to normal , like they did x3 in the previous 12 months. Its also the summer which is well generally poor. We also had a seller in terms of the Ex Director following on from the Invesco sale.
DCFN has a point Bronx. Your frequent posting on here, almost exclusively negative, suggests you have doubts about your position here. Would it be right to assume that should CF not directly address these concerns, that would prove one misstep too many from him in your book, and thus you walk away from a company that’s clearly irking you?
And if the answer to the above question is ‘no’, can I please ask that you dial back the same gripes and moans on here.
I’m reluctant to green bin you because, as I’ve said before, to your credit, you have raised some valid points in the past. But the record feels very much broken at the moment and your frequent repetitions of the same points shows how you haven’t taken heed of your fellow poster’s requests to stop ramming your opinion down their throats.
Red days, I log in here and I could bet my house that you’ve posted to stick the boot in. If you are invested here, as you say you are, you have a strange way indeed of investing. Sticking your hard earned into a company to LITERALLY, on a daily basis, talk down and moan about.
The mind really does boggle but I’m hoping that at least some of what I say lands.
Good luck all.
The MMs will pay attention to that
LOL - you think they drive the price. What a tool
Hi Bronxville, do you think you will sell if you don't get (satisfactory) answers to those questions?
I’ll look forward to you asking them and hearing the answers - though re 4) I’m sure they are not at liberty to disclose govt policy, and 7) why would they promote DiM before prospectus /spin off is announced?
I’m suitably amused by the way you speak about the pandemic as though it is a regular bump in the road - it has killed x million people and collapsed the worlds economy. Hostile questioning is fine as far as it goes, but at the end of the day like any CEO he will disclose what he sees is in the company’s best interests. You seem as ever to conveniently overlook the fact that CF is the largest shareholder here himself. His interests are entirely aligned with those of us who are invested here. Those who want to talk the price down, less so.
Citizen..we've just come thru a Pandemic (or in the middle of it) and we are a vaccine testing company so yes the share price has doubled since the acquisition of Hvivo
(I consider the 11p fund raise the start of the new Open Orphan)
1 Can you give investors a guaranteed range for 2021 revenues (ie 45mil-55mil)
2.If you claim OO share price should command 8× revenue value (because OO is the No.1 in it space) then Investors should have hard numbers for 2022,should they not?
3. Is the laboratory actually booked out or not and if it is booked what are the maximum revenues it can generate annually?
4.Is there a new contract signed with the UK Govt because of the delay in the characterisation study or if not are OO being compensated.
5.How much cash on the balance sheet as of July 31st?
6.Is Hvivo doing the Phase 2 trial for Codagenix?
7.Where is Maurice Treacy and why isn't he promoting DIM to a wider audience?There has literally been no marketing of DIM.
I have lots more about promises that have come and gone but I'd be happy if the above were answered in a professional way..
Moni. 'Cos Bronx and Co, unlike you, talk sense.
Cl. Clinics are run to max 80% occupancy. "Substantially booked up through into next year" I believe were CF's words and yet we managed to find a slot at short notice for the Phase II Ampligen human challenge trial announced 9th July and expected to commence in Q4. The trial and revenues will run on into 2022. There is a need to understand and beware of CF spin.
Last year is history. We don't live in the past and it doesn't pay this year's bills. The future is yet to show itself and the nearest we get to it now is finnCap's revised note of 17th June where they upgrade our FY 2021 revenue forecasts to £46.0m (+4.8%) to reflect a stronger year end pipeline that includes COVID contracts, alongside an increase in costs of sales to £30.9m (+15.3%), with an adjusted EBITDA of £7.3m. That makes a big hole in the PBT year end forecast.
They also say that having demonstrated an ability to spin out non core assets through Poolbeg Pharma, they have confidence in assigning value to Open Orphan’s non core assets and introduce a new target price of 47p, based on a sum of the parts analysis - so that's 47p for the whole lot including POLB. The ORPH rump is valued at £230m on an EV/Sales of x 5.0 and non core assets are valued at £65m in total. Values have been ascribed in line with other CRO's such as Ergomed and included for reference.
Values have changed since 17th June - ORPH sp was 33p and POLB had still to list - but these valuations reflect a much more in depth access to and analysis of ORPH data and the wider CRO market valuations than we on here or others on twitter can ever hope achieve. The MMs will pay attention to that rather than some of the frankly pie in the sky, jam tomorrow figures some people post. It really is worth everyone getting their own copy of the report through research-tree.com to see where our broker says we stand compared to what CF will tell us on the 9th.
Could they be shorting the shares?
Why are you guys still replying to Bronx and Co? You are just encouraging the key board trolls to keep on baiting you and filling the board with nonsense and wind-ups. I’ve learnt that lesson with him, earache and a host of others that enjoy the limelight and oxygen they need. They are probably the same people called 12 toes and Homeboy that are winding everyone up over on the ADVFN board. Enough said!
Bronx, you have been posting so obsessively and with such a singular focus that I think you have lost track of time a little. From any realistic standpoint CF has done an extraordinary amount of work in the last 12 months to reshape this business. As I suspect you know commercial confidentiality means it's not always straightforward to publish details of contracts - I've not seen anything to contradict the proposition that the clinics are all fully booked out, have you?
Wg and Bronx. Even if handed to him by his bezzie over a nice bottle of wine, he'll edit out any question he doesn't like. I've also submitted mine nicely but I'm not holding my breath. Someone over the road called it another blarney fest. They're probably right.
Bronx create you own list & submit. You have been critical since end of June in a multitude of ways. I keep any grumblings that I may have to myself. There are many overlays here & in the broader markets as wells specific to OO.
Maybe we could create a list here and someone that has CF's ear could forward then onto him directly.
Wondorgoals..I did previously,none were addressed directly,only skirted
bronx - well the opportunity is there to ask them. Are you joining the event next week? have you prepared your questions in a coherent and concise way - they can be submitted in advance?
Our leader has alot of questions to answer..
To justify market cap we need considerable contracts signed and they are just not coming in.
He also has to prove that OO will get £50 mil in revs this year andxcost are under control..and what about next year..where is the Pneumococcal study he promised in March?
Lots and lots of questions,even the question of his leadership style..
(That billion dollar market cap rant was outrageous when the stock was trading in the mid 30's and has cost many people to lose alot of money)
I've taken a view since February that the company events are useful but very ahead of themselves. Snippets of information are given that often i would rather wait until the RNS comes about. The strategy is known, it just needs to materialise.
I known some investors hang on CF's every words but i doubt there is much he can say now apart from
1. bear with us
2. FFS Rory