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Yes Okehurst1 it is such a refreshing change to have proper informative posts.
It is bringing this forum back to what LTHs deserve, after such a long drawn out time, where attack and abuse can prevail due to the protracted process.
Keep up the good work. I assume the silect majority of holders approve !!!
Oke1..he's not worth your time.Your research and knowledge is exemplary.True investors here appreciate it..he,on the other hand,will simply relish the opportunity of an ongoing debate so he can (a) get the attention he craves,and (b) play his little games.Thanks for your contributions on here though,.we can only make judgements on the info that is out there and you are helping alot by bringing some of it to our attentions.
The addressable LFT market is $8B today / 4.7% CAGR taking it to $13B 2030, Omega is a good opportunity for PI’s to tap into this expanding diagnostic market
As regards Gates , Omega needs Mologic to clear the current regulatory hurdles, if they do then Omega has a good chance to become £1 share over night and possibly head to £2, thats a big increase on the current price - not without risk as mentioned
Your argument falls down once Mologic gains HUA/ FDA approval, at that point we will sell everything we make in today’s market place, if your correct we definitely won’t hold a £90M m/cap, I agree.
If Bill delivers we will have a serious rerate upwards, my money is on Bill Gates getting Mologic over the line and we all benefit as shareholders of Omega.
I don’t think many LTH’s are selling having come this far and when with the right RNS we can make a decent return on the current share price.
Harvey Weinerstein / JBlahBlahAdam/HeatherLocklear proving once again why he loves this company so much,and why he is heavily invested in here,just can't stay away. Have to admit,he's really made me rethink things here..gonna have to buy more tomorrow.
I don't think Gates is doing it for business reasons though. The fact he likes the Mologic test speaks volumes.
I quite enjoy a debate - no problem my side you posting your views
I think your argument would have held up quite strongly in January 2021 but without regurgitating known scientific facts in detail we can all agree the vaccines are waning and Delta has become a new dominant strain and here lays the issue, Covid 19 looks like it will be with us for a few many years as more strains spin off, governments realise they can’t keeping jabbing the public every 6 months with boosters so they need accurate / cheap tests and big Pharma is shifting now to anti viral drugs rather than vaccines - one look at Pfizer’s share price says it all
So the market is shifting, Omega are in a good position as they have specialist engineering skills to take advantage, coupled with a world class reputation, WHO , Bill Gates , Chinese Communist Party, U.K. Government as examples who recognise their expertise .
Let’s look at the addressable worldwide market for LFT’s
$8.2B with a CAGR of 4.5% and estimated addressable market of $13.3B by 2030, the market for Diagnostics/ LFT’s
is getting bigger as citizens globally test themselves at home for numerous conditions.
Re Omega shares
Most have done this research, understand the market / the science and have a decent understanding of the margins, once we secure HUA via Mologic biotech we will rerate, if we max capacity -which we have a good chance - we could see £180M to £360M m/cap possibly higher.
Agree there is risk, my calculation is 10% risk which I am happy with to see £1 to £2 a share.
Doubt anything any of us say will make a difference to the market and we will soon find out if your call is correct or Bill Gates has made the correct business move ( yet again )
With respect, am following Bill Gates, he seldom makes the wrong call.
Harvey why are you posting on a Sunday night?
Instead of wasting my Sunday, I will quickly stop Harvey in his tracks and thereafter block him.
We can conclude that without Covid sales the Sp would be c35-40p (any shareholder should know this)
I popped on here for a quick glance and it’s great to see the positivity and as Omega have alluded to, HUA is a key focus and opens up multiple opportunities.
Anyway, Harvey- it looks as if you have spent your weekend researching ways to create fear within the camp, you are an embarrassment and nobody could understand why a human being who has no shareholding within a company would rather spend their Sunday night trying to talk down a stock as opposed to living an actual life.
Filtered and off to enjoy the rest of my Sunday
I agree there will be some bailing at just over a pound.
But if we get either eua or government contract we probably get both. That's an awful lot of tests and profit even at a modest margin to only result in a pound value.
Last year there was talk of 2m tests a week resulting in £5 plus.
I'm not an expert but the valuations looked pretty solid.
I guess we can only wait and see
A lot of PIs selling will occur between 80-120p in my opinion. It's going to be bumpy because a lot of people got spiked earlier this year and just want out now, irrespective of long term SP and good news. Money can be made elsewhere in a shorter time frame i suspect. I'm hoping that the selling provides an opportunity for the big boys to jump in so that we can sail on past the quid mark quickly.
My exit price has always been £3 but that's hugely optimistic. I've been in since April 20 so it's a happy hold for me.
and we will only know WITH orders !!
first news, when ever that might be and the markup will be battered by an avalanche of sellers.
new buyers then come in who have the patience, and sense, post orders - to HOLD the stock.
we LTH's have seen the disappointment from this sh5t show over the past Year , however that should not now prevent holding to claim the significant capital gains now we appear on the cusp of orders...
for balance, we were priced at £1 , when we were on the cusp of orders in April/May
it could and should be argued that ODX are in a much stronger position here, so as soon as we have confirmation of orders rather than speculation, were off to the moon..... AGAIN !!
i am rather hopeful that October will prove the new April, don't really want it running too much further, its been a very long wait.
@asher7.For sure,with approvals and dependant upon orders,this could fly beyond the £1.50.I think the rollercoaster ride we've all become accustomed to will continue indefinately with this one,only i'm hoping the dips from future highs will find support at higher lows.It's an unprecedented situation so i certainly wouldn't put any upper limits on the SP. All i know is that the upside from here far outweighs the downside so i'm looking forward to the next couple of months.We've been battered back down to this price so,funds/risk allowing,most of us will have had a chance to average down/load up in anticipation of the incoming rebound.Just how hard this thing might bounce is anyone's guess.
From what we know at the moment (or can reasonably anticipate) I certainly agree with you view Okehurst - time will tell but we are on the home run.
I can understand and accept that after the wait and the pain many will consider selling when they break even, show a little profit or the price rises over a psychological barrier £1, £1.50 that is human nature. For myself I will wait until all the news is in and the price fully reflects the opportunity - I believe in my research and the fundamentals of this share. Once orders arrive and home use accreditation is achieved, not forgetting the potential in the US although we may struggle with capacity, the numbers involved are massive, I just hope that I have the strength to hold on once everything has turned blue. Your money you call but don’t let the relief of seeing the SP turn make you rush for the exit too soon leaving the real profit for others without our own particular baggage.
Ncyt is probably our only bench mark ?
£80M cash ?
£50M Rev ex DHSC
So 2X Rev
DHSC dispute looks like it’s discounted to £zero - until resolved ?
Assume Omega sell 100M LFT’s @ £1.75p gross ?
could we achieve 2X Rev ? Close to £4 ?
Ebita ? Pure guess work but £140M p/a with 2 to maybe 3 times tops ? But we would have to have solid £numbers/ contracts
Feels £2 a share is well achievable this year but we do need the test to be cleared for HUA as first hurdle or entry level USA market
Furey 100 % agree like I said we all have targets
Trouble is I think a lot will sell on first bit of news
Yes Maninpink you are probably right, but more will buy when orders come,
Like I said not be excited till we over a pound. Trouble is I think a lot will sell on first bit of news . I hope I'm wrong we all have targets .
Wadogara im thinking that’s very conservative imho and that could get hit on the first order obviously dependant on the value.
Eua lands with other regulatory authorisation along with with contracts who knows where this could go :-)
I’m thinking £2/3 with the 2million being utilised.
Ps happy Sunday all stay safe.
I'm going to be honest and say i think that's a bit over ambitious Chinaplate.I'll be more than happy if we are £1-1.50 in that timeframe
So my target of £3-£5 by end Jan 2022 may not be too ambitious?
Appreciated but absolutely no need to apologise.Sorry if my reply seemed abrupt,.unintentional as i had no problem at all with your post.Have always found you supportive and positive re your investment,it's the overtly underhanded game players who i have no time for.Hope it goes well here for you.
Wadogara. My post wasn't intended to be personal against anyone just t remind investors that there is more to Omega than lateral flow tests. The tests do make up most of the company potential and this is why I see it as a long term and not a quick trade investment. As you said there are a lot of bedwetters here and if Colin is telling what he had for breakfast they worry their £100 is lost to an incompetent board of directors. I have steadily added to my holding over the past 20 months and I am a little bit under water due to buying lots last year in the 80's but, hey ho, that what happens. I can see this going well in the next 12 months and I have no intention of selling. My estimate is over £1 and less than £10 in the next 12 months.
Again, apologies if I caused you any offence Wadogara.
Not really forgotten about the other products and I certainly agree they represent an opportunity but for now I believe all focus is and should be on LFT. Further down the road we will have a lot of money in the pot to fully exploit the other products.
Hi Greg22. If you're directing that to me,I did initially include antibody tests in my figures from this morning, for which i believe there will still be incoming orders. Largely focusing on LFTs because that's where the company is currently directing most of its resources.Of course the other tests will come into play more over the coming months/years.I'm all for a higher MCap,as you say, through diversification and expansion.There are so many bedwetters on here tho that it's perilous to talk about a time which lies beyond the next few weeks.