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Im neither upset or nervous - i just see you for what you are - feel free to filter me
Funny your on both talking down share prices - you do realize that nothing said on here makes much difference - go back under your stone
Browny - also over on the TILS group getting called out for de-ramping
being involved with india , would blow the numbers out of the water , thats what we need .
The UK RTC commitment is 100k to 200k. Capacity is 1m lateral flow and 1m Elisa
here's the maths:
So if everything goes to plan, all the tests come to market on time and capacity utilisation is 100%:
£3 average selling price x 2m tests per week x 52 weeks a year = £312m revenues
Add Food tolerance and CD4 = £350m revenues. Average margin of 55% = Gross profit of £192.5m
Lets say admin and selling costs double call it £12.5m = Net Profit £180m.
5 x Earnings would be £900 MCAP. £5.30 per share
Opposite end of the scale, assume the bare minimum happens from what is already promised:
Based On 200k RTC tests, 46k per day Elisa tests and 200k per day Mologic tests by end of Sep, £1.50 average selling price annualised earnings would be £106m revenues at 55% average margin £58.3m gross profit. Say admin and selling up 50% = £9m. Net profit = £49.3m.
At 5 x earnings valuation £246m. £1.44p per share
Low ball is nailed on by the end of Sep in my opinion, and i find it highly unlikely baring a miracle that capacity utilisation wont be nearer the top end rather than the 10% scenario above.
To get to the top end we need the Antigen Elisa tests up and running by Oct and the POC tests by Dec. I prefer to treat these as a bonus at the moment.
My expected scenario:
Assume we will use 80% capacity for Lateral flow antibody test and 50% capacity for Elisa antibody. = £141m revenues @ 55% margin = £77.55m gross profit = £68.55 net profit = £343m @ 5 x earnings. = £2 a share.
This is my minimum expectation by year end. With just antibody tests and no antigen tests. Just an announcement that the lateral flow antigen tests are good to go, then double my valuation in the above scenario.
What do we need for this to happen?
RTC test approval - highly likely given the process and people involved in design and the fact the whole consortium have already move forward with capacity expansion.
Lateral flow utilisation of 80%. Well RTC is 200k minimum. I'll be shocked if they do not want more. Mologic lateral flow tests will come on board shortly, with 75 countries available to distribute. Capacity should achieve 100% but im confident 80% is guaranteed.
50% Elisa tests - Mologic agreement of 46k per day is already 30%
Food tolerance - China self test approval - highly anticipated to come soon
CD4 WHO approval and continued orders - delayed from start of the year due to covid. Highly anticipated.
BTW 5 x earnings is conservative based on the unknown time of this virus and the fact i have ignored tax. A higher multiple is achievable it could be anything from 5 to 30.
maybe each time he changes his profile name he forgets everything... would be like a fish, 2 second memory
"The Randox scandal appears to have been quickly swept under the carpet when ..."
The problem ST is that Randox was able to provide something that resembled a test, where the newly founded future elite dagnostics pool of companies were not able to pull anything out and with them the Avactas the GDR & co. All coming out with random statement about design freeze and manufactured unicorns ( The last two point only if you have been "lucky" enough to hold Avacta, GDR and ODX were silent for almost two months.
I will probably have better odds of making a profit now if I put a tenner on Lyon to win the champions League.
Brown dyor.
Min 50% margin on all tests, actual pricing in last ceo presentation
Browny - are you serious. Have you done any research? Watch the investor video - its all there. Price and margin and yes they make money - jeeeeez
Browny1991
Why don;t you read/research before making stupid comments.
Most of us here know the fundamentals and what's coming.
“Government contract is now a given it is not up for debate.”
Exactly. People need to research what PHE approval is for. Are Avacta, GDR, SNG, NCYT talking about PHE approval for their products in the UK? No. Why?....Because PHE Approval is only a requirement for U.K. Government contracts.
Contrary to misinformation out there, it is not the job of the government, PHE or any other organisation to assess or approve tests for healthcare provider use unless they are to be used in a government testing service.
Bit of a big clue there if people had bothered to research what it’s actually required for.
TBH i dont really know what all the fuss is about.
The DnaNudge test looks fantastic. There seem to be a lot of PIs across various boards complaining about this. They are not going to award a small AIM cap a contract just because you have taken a position and want to make a few quid.
Regarding ODX - The UKRTC test is already part of Government plan's. We already have a commitment of 200k tests per week. It is the best possible test and will be bought in the millions. We do not have to worry about where demand will come from.
Everyone else complaining about Antigen tests - well this looks about the best test i have seen so far on the market. Lampore also looks advanced compared to others. Others are either first generation tests that have done a job to some extent, but i am yet to see anything else come out of development as good as what this sounds. There are serious challenges with a POC antigen test that are different from a point of care antibody tests. I've said this before that NCYT benefited from early adoption but will need to continually evolve to compete with better offerings. Even these tests are not going to be the end game tests. A saliva based lateral flow device is the end game. So far nobody has achieved this.
Yes there may be some politics behind contract awards but it also comes down to the tests.
Several companies will continue to push the boundaries with Antigen and Antibody testing. There are so many markets for tests, and ODX have high quality tests, so we should not worry about demand. I think the capacity plan they have is on the low end of meeting demand, and we know how valuable 2m tests per week will be.
Speed of Antigen testing has been a problem for some time, and the next generation of tests will make the early adopters sweat. We were not an early adopter we are waiting to get the next generation tests available.
The fact they are looking at a test that determines between flu and covid is a sign they expect a problematic winter ahead.
I wouldn't be surprised if they dont want to do the mass antibody testing until January, so that the positive results is up high enough so they can start working towards herd immunity. Goal for UK RTC produce as many as possible before Y/E.
MB - The company is question is producing Antigen isn't it?
If so, has nothing to do with ODX
People are panicking because other companies are being mentioned with the UK Government. We have been with the Government since day 1. We do not need to be worried about competition. The people running the testing programme have been involved from day 1. It was only ever a matter of if they could produce the test of sufficient quality and it has already been achieved. Government contract is now a given it is not up for debate.
Based on the expected production of tests per Abingdon it will take the consortium 6 months to produce 10m tests. ODX share is 20%.
10m tests is not enough in 6 months. They need 5x that amount at least. If ODX were to be asked to make 5x as many that, then full capacity is used and nothing left for Mologic.using all their capacity and leaves nothing for Mologic tests.