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TGoodland: No competent scientist would, on present incomplete information, claim "Antibody doesn't really show anything".
PDMSPiper: Thank you for highlighting the scientific paper which goes some way to explaining just how incomplete our knowledge is. Any dedicated immunologist/virologist/epidemiologist would be very keen to amass much more data to help clarify the complex issue of antibody emergence/durability of antibodies/extent of protection of antibodies.
Let's put antibodies into context: The Acquire Immune System (AIS) developed in early vertebrates and consists of two fundamental processes:
1) The B Cells act in the Humoral Response. The B Cells carry antigen-specific receptors which are antibody molecules on their surface. These recognise whole pathogens without the need for antigen processing.
2) The T Cells rely on an intermediate, the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC), which bind to antigen fragments and then display them to the T Cells.
Thus, antibodies are not the whole story and it is interesting that some early work may suggest that, in younger people in particular, the T Cell response to SARS-CoV-2 may be an important component of the body's immune response.
Amassing high quality data on the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 will be absolutely crucial in any preparation and roll-out of a vaccine. Vaccines have been immensely successful in providing long-term protection against a number of viral illnesses: smallpox (now extinct), mumps, measles, rubella, polio, some varieties of hepatitis, etc. Some of these vaccinations require boosters, some not. It is true to say that no vaccine has ever been developed against a strain of Coronavirus, but previous epidemics of C-virus have been thankfully short-lived (SARS-CoV-1; MERS), although with higher mortality (SARS-CoV-1 approx 10%; MERS approx 34%).
There is no essential reason why a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 cannot be developed and there are several major global efforts at present to create such a vaccine, including the GlaxoSmithKlein/Sanofi and the Astrazeneca/University of Oxford collaborations. To repeat, any development/roll-out of vaccines will require extensive and repeated testing for antibodies. If the durability of the antibodies is found to be quite short-lived, then the need for repeated testing increases considerably.
From a mathematical/statistical point-of-view, the highest validity for data will require the highest quality testing, the largest possible sample size (whole populations ideal) and repeated testing. The scientific community understands this perfectly well, whatever the incomplete/incorrect information put about by ignorant media.
We have to add in to this very complicated situation the probability of further mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It has already mutated once (known as the D614G mutation) and may do so again, possibly several times.
Furthermore, as we approach Autumn/Winter, there is a likelihood of other viruses contaminating t
The new UK-RTC AbC-19 lateral flow test is for IgG antibodies to the SARS-COV-2 virus.
This scientific paper says IgG antibodies for similar Coronaviruses including SARS-COV-1 are typically detectable between one and three years after infection.
As for immunity, there has been over 10 million infections globally, 9.5Million recovered patients. Not one verified reinfected patient has yet been brought forward anywhere in the world.
We’ll be told that antibodies provide immunity when it suits gov strategies and they no longer need us fully compliant in regard to further lockdown regulations.
The market makers are scratching their ass"s out.
That's take us down to 36p maggots.
Investment is a game of chess.
Yea, I think the doom and gloom is due to the orchestrated 40%+ drop in the last month, tends to put people in an off mood...
This is the scientific paper you refer to on antibodies and immunity and the key point summary from it...
Coronavirus antibody immunity scientific paper14 Jun 2020 06:57
“A systematic review of antibody mediated immunity to coronaviruses: antibody kinetics, correlates of protection, and association of antibody responses with severity of disease“
We have presented a broad, comprehensive review of multiple aspects of the literature on antibody immunity to coronaviruses. We identified a number of key findings. The median time to detection was similar across different antibodies for SARS-CoV-1 (12 days; IQR 8-15.2 days) and SARS-CoV-2 (11 days; IQR 7.25-14 days), but longer for MERS-CoV (16 days; IQR 13-19 days). Most long-term studies found that IgG waned over time (typically detectable up to at least a year) while others found detectable levels of IgG three years post symptoms onset. Antibody kinetics varied across the severity gradient with longer durations of detectable antibody associated with more severe symptoms. Human challenge studies with HCoV indicate that serum and mucosal immune responses (serum IgG, IgA, neutralizing titer, mucosal IgA) provide possible correlates of protection from infection and disease. However, repeat human challenge experiments with single HCoV suggest individuals can be infected with the same HCoV one year after first challenge, but with possible lower severity. There is cross-reactivity within but minimal reactivity between Alpha- and Beta-CoVs. While endemic HCoVs rarely induce cross-reactive antibodies against emerging HCoVs, SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV stimulate antibodies induced by prior HCoV infections.”
Here we go she is touching 41. The market makers have small dicks.
We had optimistic news yesterday. Looks good to me.
Not been here all that long but all I seem to read is doom and gloom from Dibs lol. With regards to his comment on antibodies of course long term immunity has not been confirmed as yet only shorter term because it has not been around long enough. From the paper posted up here a couple of weeks back reinfection is possible around a year after first infection with similar corona viruses. The notion that people are not going to want antibody testing in huge numbers is slightly ridiculous.
'Studies of SARS-CoV-2's proteins and genetics suggest that the virus seems likely to induce a long-term immune response similar to that of other coronaviruses, like 2002's SARS 1, or Middle Easter respiratory syndrome (MERS), which arose in 2012.'
Dibs knows full well this is great value. It’s disingenuous lying I have a problem with. Dibs fully intends to buy back in here at some point but isn’t ready to do so yet.
Well now we know if it goes over 58 his strategy has failed and we’ll be waving him goodbye.
Traders who think they’re Gordon gecko rarely swallow their pride and buy back higher. That’s why he’s worried. Clocks ticking dibs. Whatever he’s currently ramping he’s most probably selling it and will be buying back in here.
Value here is too glaringly obvious to ignore.
My guess is after the open offer is closed at midday Friday and PIs that need to sell some to take their allocation is finished then we’ll start to move up again.
Plus, news on the Mologic tests could drop anytime.
Expecting an RNS update on the Mologic Elisa Antibody Test any day now. PHE validation and possibly scale up of production at Littleport. Due any day.
What's happening is Dibs has sold. Bit sad really. Getting my brolly and tearing myself away now.
From my memory of Dibs posting, in honesty i dont have a problem. You buy or hold if you believe a price is going up you sell if you believe a price is going down. I think there is a line that many cross in terms of their posting after taking such action i dont think the line has been crossed. I will debate some of the comments I don't have a problem with it. Immunity questions are irrelevant. In fact if immunity only lasts say 6 months, wont we need more antibody tests? Orders i've posted on.
In terms of belief in the share price, clearly those that believed after the placing it would drop to the placing were correct and those of us that believed design freeze would increase the SP are wrong.
However, this is by design of market mechanics. It is not by design of fair value of the share price. We cannot fight against the market. All we can do in these circumstances is question whether the price makes sense based on the growth potential of the business, and even at the most prudent of modelling you get a share price multiples of the current one. If there is a reason for the price avoid. If the share price doesn't seem right for the newsflow, buy as many as you can.
There is no way you can argue that a share price that was trading quite happily in the 50-60p range is worth less after 1) an expanded Mologic agreement giving us 3 more tests including antigen lab and lateral flow giving us access to the full market of covid testing, 2) funding increasing the manufacturing capacity of the business 8/10 fold 3) design freeze validating that our trophy test has completed it's development phase.
There is not a chance in hell that 20% dilution devalues the business after those 3 updates. This is not funding to keep the lights on and the salaries paid for another year, this is for substantial growth. But here we are. You have 3 choices. Be a seller, buyer or a holder.
One thing i am sure of this will be the last placing this company will ever need. Over the next 2/3 years they can make upwards £700m in revenues at 50%+ margin and that is a lot of free cash flow. What people do not realise is the margin here is significant at 50% plus and the corporate costs are tiny, so all this profit will be free cash flow.
Regarding the OO i think they can easily manage without the extra £3m, but it will be spun negatively because people were argue that the lack of take up of OO is a sign of sentiment in the business. I've seen it all before, what was done with good intentions ends up another stick to beat them with because of manipulation.
(I'm holding shares for medium term before accusations start flying)
Perhaps others have insights here I am missing, but the more I think about the antibody tests the more I think they only have so much mileage in them.
Primarily, it seems there main use is as a research tool to see the extent the virus has spread in the past, and also to monitor whether antibodies are sustained or temporary (as the Roche tests are finding with NHS workers).
But in terms of their utility in suppressing further outbreaks, its pretty limited beyond informing public health approaches as it only reveals the previous spread of the disease and not current infection.
Additionally, once everyone has had a test in say, the UK, there's no real need to re-test on that scale: in countries like Italy they are simply to testing a representative sample and statistically modelling it to population scale.
I'm sure there will be a demand internationally for the tests, but I can't really see how demand will be on a population scale unless there is a well developed healthcare system - even then, once data from other studies becomes available (eg: UK mass-testing), would there be a need for population level screening or just representative samples?
While the order from Senegal is encouraging, I'm not convinced there's going to be a huge take up from many countries - given the expense of carrying out the studies - when the resources could perhaps be better deployed on additional testing for current infection.
I'd be keen to hear anyone's thoughts on this!
it's a little more complex, Dibs
Immunity from C-19 isn't properly understood yet, but seems to be temporary and vary hugely (probably related to strength of reaction/symptoms)
I want to here your side of the story here.....
Yesterday you stated that you sold your holding after the 9th June Rns.
Today you stated that you "added a few more" @ .42p.
I've seen some of your posts in the past and some are pretty good, what's happening?.
The next couple of months will be telling. All of the early vaccine manufacturers will report results of their Phase I studies and from the reporting, I take it that AZ will have an interim on their Phase II/III study some time in the summer. If most/all of these demonstrate a strong antibody involvement and can start (and I emphasise start) to show immune responses, then the utility of any antibody test increases significantly. There are many unknowns still e.g. what antibodies are involved in immunity, how long does the immunity last, what other immune cells confer immunity etc.
Along with the ongoing longitudinal serological studies, we shall start to place the pieces of this jigsaw together.
With the impending data from the vaccine studies, I can only see the demand increasing for antibody tests.
jolly - but the main question seemed to be not whether antibodies are formed following infection but whether they confer immunity/future protection. Which I think is a very strange notion. For example, are there cases of any disease or illness where antibodies are created but don't function?? If so, what are they for? Very strange. For me, its not whether the antibodies provide immunity its how long for.
most of the respected experts (proper virologists) are clear that antibodies *do* develop even in asymptomatic cases
TGoodland - top top post. The best I have seen here for a while. Investors would do well to heed your words.
It is ALL about orders now. DF was hyped up madly on Twitter and on here and has been a given for some weeks. A point I tried to get across but shouted down by the loud mouths here.
And before anyone tries to claim I am deramping a do hold a current position here but I still say what I think - whether that be positive or deemed (by insecure narrow minded people) negative.
I don’t trust this government. They flip flop from one **** up to the next. Will they order 50m tests? Don’t bet the house on it is my advice now.
They certainly haven't been on the circuit that usually follows good news, just one very unenthusiastic interviee...maybe they want the price down for a reason..
TGoodland, i dont think we can make excuses for the SP. Fact is if the market and the ones controlling want it at a price it will get there one way or another. It hasn't exactly been difficult for them its been a perfect storm for the negative camp.
Im certain that there will be much more than 50m required in the UK in the next 2 years as it will need repeat testing if the positive population is sub 20% as expected.
The problem with global is UK need to satisfy own demand first. The need to have further discussions about supply and capacity, This will no doubt add more value to us I am certain the supply agreement will demand more units.
Mologic tests will likely be more profitable so we need to either negotiate or quite rightly make more Mologic tests
The Sky Interview is the reason we're down here, and what a **** show it was. CK is clearly a scientist and not a salesman but he looked like he had just woke up and couldnt be bothered.
- Design Freeze, this was put up to be the be all and end all, and it isn't. The big one is the Govt/Global Orders.
- How many orders will the Govt make? if the 50m quoted is true then expect this back at 90p but from the sound of it yesterday, Colin wasn't sure this was going to be the case.... remember the initial RTC is 6 months long and started in April.
- Can we sell this to people/global? No indication of this yesterday.
- Placing , a LOT of churn here since the placing was announced.
- Mologic, this is 80% of our business, NOT the govt. - I would prefer it the other way but that's not what we have.
To get back to 70p plus we need:
Big orders for ELISA lab test, Global orders for RTC, 50m Order from Govt.
I can't see the Govt ordering 50m as there is so many scientists saying that Antibody doesnt really show anything