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MU345
Agree with your volume, just think your light with the price per unit
£16 net per test we will have a much higher margin than 9% for the best antibody test in the world.
Distributors tend to take 30% in structures like this, we already know our other Covid tests costs us about £1.60 - our broker note a few weeks explained same, even if it’s a wee bit higher we could still be looking at £8 a test profit
PCR is £150 a test , the ODX test is going to crush the competition in this market, performance and price.
The RTA distribution deal is of course separate but we know that price is £13 from the Abingdon white paper last week .
I’ll shut up now!
Per week I mean
Pawnking1:
17m tests per year would be 300k per week, not 1.4m per week.
20x EBITDA is a fantasy though...
Merchant. I agree 20x is aggressive but need a high multiplier to even get close to a reasonable business case for 500m market cap. At 10x that’s 3m tests per month... well in excess of current potential of 500k pm. Was just trying to illustrate the point with some aggressive assumptions still makes it hard to justify the market cap at that level
My bad, forgot that institutional investors invest on speculation and excitement... no way the market cap can get to 500m+ Just on PI investment. Needs the big boys who will use detailed DCF analysis etc to assess their investment. Just my opinion. I’ve been in here for some time with a low average so many multi bags for me at 150p.
The big unknown is how the C19 virus behaves over the next 12-18 months. If it ends up mutating and following a SARS or MERS approach and fizzling out. Remember SARS and MERS were much more deadly on a % cases basis, albeit C19 is more transmissible. Sales in ODX For antigen/ antibody tests will reduce to nil. That discount factor will weigh heavy on the excitement and speculation.
I like ODX and believe in their product but timing is critical and coming to market now is essential before the global pharma dominate the market. I’m a seller at 130p.
Pawnking
We love vaccines. At least 2 antibody test are needed per vaccine shot.
ODX - a finger in every test
- Shortly capacity for 2m+ tests per week.
- Average profit per test £1.50? (hard to gauge with high variance)
-£12,000,000 a month
-£144,000,000 per annum
- Food Intolerance + CD4
I’d expect manufacturing capacity expansion to continue beyond the 2m target. With profits increasing accordingly. Whilst average profit could be greater.
Kopfkissen , and let's face it , when a product of this calibre comes to market , excitement and fomo etc is sometimes responsible for 50 % of share price action . Snowball effects happen multiple times a day on the AIM rollercoaster .Sng's mad monday for instance .
20x EBITDA would be astronomical!!!
I’ve been using 5X
Fy2 earnings at full capacity would be upwards of £180m
I get the impression someone is trying to get in on the cheap, good luck with that
Agree - it’s the excitement and potential that cause the spikes...then shares tend to settle before further news either reinforces and pushes them higher or they drift. It’s all getting quite exciting now and I can’t think there won’t be further news now before Monday. Antibody home testing is being mentioned more and more...
pawnking1, your estimates are based on calculation and logic. You need to add excitement and speculation- they can have a big positive affect on a share price.
So 179m shares at 300p would be a market cap of in excess of half a billion... we havent sold a single test yet. I would say that is some way down the track. Assuming a relatively aggressive 20x EBITDA multiple, then we would need an EBITDA of c. £26 million. So working backwards and assuming the govt contract... if we make £1.50 GP per test (assuming no overheads) then we would need 17m tests per year (1.4m per week). We are currently manufacturing 100k per week, rising to 200k per week in October but with an ambition to hit that kind of manufacturing productivity. 300p may be possible but it will be some distance down the line and that is assuming that we dont find a vaccine/COVID disappears.
With MHRA approval and government orders. I could see this getting to 150-170p.
Lochranzalad you can’t compare share prices like that. A company with a higher share price isn’t necessarily more valuable than one with a lower share price, because the two companies may have different numbers of shares in issue.
NCYT has 71m shares in issue. ODX has 179m.
HARD NOT TO BE !!
Pawnking , that's a fair comment , but even so , let's face it , theres a heck of a lot of room for manoeuvre at this price . The quality of these products I believe we speak for themselves in the next few months .I cannot for the life of me see why 3 quid isnt achievable . The next 6 months will be a hive of activity at Omega Diagnostics. It's hard to be full of anticipation at this point .
I take your point, but the SP is a function of the number of shares and the debt/equity structure of a business. In simple terms though, ODX market cap is £146m vs NYCT £374m, so if we had the same market cap as NYCT our SP would be 210p
Sums it up well. Looking forward for tomorrow and has the saying goes I wouldn’t want to be out of this over the weekend, I can see all the Sunday press coverage now.
So , NCYT is going north at well over a fiver .And we are about to release tests that dont need a lab and have the highest degree of all round accuracy in the world .... and the SP is currently 80p ?? Just run me through that again ??