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Down to the bone. It is great customer service and will hopefully help build up some repeat purchases etc which is great. I'm just surprised they can do it as every piece of news I can find would seem to suggest even if manufacturing 20m a month there should be more demand. I'm hoping for more 6 month orders. Share price seems to be suggesting there are some issues that this investor cannot see. That is all and offering such quick delivery indicates no backlog of orders which surprises me.
jbbad, good post and so pleased you are saying as it is re our bungling politicians. Boris is emulating Trump and that is not a good thing. Trump put Winston Churchill's bust in the White House but he (Trump) does not get the cigar. More likely the death of more than 100000 people will define his ridiculous tenure as President of a superpower. Boris is not even close to getting the cigar. Surrounded by chavs and arse lickers. I want this stock to do well, and it will, but our leaders are screwing the people over through their bungling and political skulduggery.
@Globetrotter, if that was the case then why did the share price retrace from £2.20 to £1 back in Feb / March? Surely if the market knew what the future held the price would have kept going up to £3+? Nothing goes up in a straight line!
"The fact that they are promoting same/next day delivery actually worries me a bit as means demand is not so high it is causing a back log and from what I understand, gold standard etc it surely should."
This is where customer and investor expectations diverge ... as a customer I'd rather get my product as quickly as possible otherwise I'm going elsewhere or losing lives but as an investor I want to see demand sky high. As a company who comes first the customer or the investor ...
https://twitter.com/PrimerdesignLtd/status/1265244142201864192
"Our primary focus is to expand Primerdesign's manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible to service the continued significant demand for our Covid19 test"
Continued Significant Demand. I don't think you need to worry about them selling their products.
IF and WHEN and BUT and all sorts of theories. One thing iv learnt is that the market always knows more than us ordinary mortals. If the price is struggling to keep pace its either overvalued or investors simply get doubts and abandon ship still hopefully making a decent profit. Our lives will change and adapt to new reality. Novacyt was one of the first off the blocks and now joined by a multitude of other providers all wanting a share of admittedly what could be a big cake.
"The fact that they are promoting same/next day delivery actually worries me a bit as means demand is not so high it is causing a back log and from what I understand, gold standard etc it surely should."
very good point.
Brod, I think you’re comment about the fact that we are advertising next day delivery, and this being a negative, is typical of where NCYT finds itself right now.
The market simply doesn’t believe it is possible that a company that had market cap of £10m back in January could possibly have recurring monthly sales of £80m, people think it’s too good to be true and are looking for any reason to get spooked (even when 3 directors have bought in the last 10 days).
If / when we get confirmation that we are selling all production at a good price, the share price will re-rate considerably. Until then, suspicions will continue.
The biggest clues for me are recruitment, why would you still be advertising new roles if you weren’t selling everything you produced? And also, why would you scale up from 4m to 8m to 10m without justification?
You calculations seem logical but about 75% of announced sales so far have been to one customer. We need more big orders like those and don't understand reasons why more such orders have not been placed/announced. The fact that they are promoting same/next day delivery actually worries me a bit as means demand is not so high it is causing a back leg and from what I understand, gold standard etc it surely should. I'll be content with anything above £30m in contract sales, very happy anything above £50m
So difficult to say GLR, with us supplying internationally to over 100 countries, and many of those countries still being in the grip of the virus (Latin America, Middle East, Africa), and having huge populations, it's unsurprising that we are selling all kits being produced. The unknown is the sales price & margin, and how this varies by country & distributor.
We know that at 15th April they had hit their target of manufacturing 4m kits per month, and that they are on track to hit 10m by June. So it's fairly safe to assume that May production would be between 5-8m tests, taking the midpoint of 6.5m and multiplying by a prudent sales price per test of £7 (based on the fact GDR are confident they can achieve £8-10 per test this is low), would give May revenue of £45.5m. The max we could realistically hope for IMO would be 8m production at £10 per test, giving £80m revenue.
Either way, it's unreal that the market cap is still sitting at £200m, given companies like EKF diagnostics have rocketed off the back of £10m of sales over 2 months!
Morning all
what's everyones rev forecasts for May 2020, total revenue booked/contracted in May and Total overall revenue?
My first forecast was ~£210m GBP total booked/contracted, however that may be ambitious
This was based on the following
12th March Rev 2.3m
12-16th March Rev 3.7m - increase of 1.4m GBP - Average £350K per day
16-30th March Rev total 17.8m - increase of 14.1 GBP - Average £1m per day, daily increase of 180%
30th March - 29th April Rev total £90m - Increase of 72.2m GBP - average of £2.3m Rev per day, daily increase of 130% on the last total of £1m per day
Taking into account the increase in rev per day, my calcs predicted 69% increase in daily revenue booked/contracted for the month of may, if true this would result in a total revenue of £208m GBP, or an average of £3.9m per day
This does take into account future capacity of course why I put booked/contracted, just because they can sell 8m tests PCM in May and 10m tests PCM in June, that does not limit there total revenue booked/contracted to £90m for June, hence the NHS order for the next 6 months, these longer orders are what we really want to see to be able to forecast the Y/E EBITDA and longevity of the revenue stream
Taking into account a good portion of that £90m revenue is the NHS order, and that is close to home, I would still be very happy with a total revenue booked/contracted as of May 30th of ~£170m GBP, an increase of £80m - EBITDA at £40m for may, we can easily cover our MCAP in cash in 4-5 months time, that would make this an incredibly attractive investment
In terms of SP predictions, anything over £200m booked revenue and I'd be happy paying sub £5