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Some consolidation is a good thing to build a strong base before the next move up.
We were only £3 at the beginning of September so this is a good level before the next moves up. The move up to this level has been smooth as well so that is good.
We are undervalued but like someone said this morning nothing goes up in a straight line so patience is required imo.
We are making strong sales and the old year end revenue forecasts have already been smashed with the latest government deal. It's just that Nova aren't going to come out and say look at all this money we are making from this virus. They have too big a customer in the government s of the UK and France to do that.
Hey not even a £5 million Hungary order gets a mention. That's saying something.
What we need is a TR-1, from a respected fund.
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The second RNS was to do with antibody testing in a clinical setting. There has been much discussion of PCR tests possibly being oversensitive and picking up fragments of DNA from past Covid 19 infections. Using Lab 21s antibody test alongside the PCR will be more helpful in eliminating such cases. If you are showing a degree of immunity with this antibody test and are non-sympatric but testing positive on the PCR, it is likely you had Covid 19 in the past rather than the present. So, this test will become increasingly important, as more and more people will have had the virus at some time, but will need to undergo treatment for other ailments and not want to be stopped due to the oversensitive nature of PCR tests used in medical settings.
Remember, this is all in addition to all the fantastic sales already happening. Hence, the current value should already be £1bn and the SP £15, but it will take time to re-rate. Publicity and promotion to institutional investors through our new brokers will see to this. Naturally, some investors (possibly more than expected) will have taken profit yesterday – but much of this will be due to portfolios being overweighed. My personal holding of Novacyt already overweight at just over 50% of portfolio moved to 63% over the last few days due to SP increase, and I was possibly silly not to sell a chunk - always leave some for the next man!
Future value is anyone’s guess and could easily be double the below by the end of year 2021 for long term holders.
GLA, DYOR, £1bn, SP £15
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I'm not sure whether the enormity and long-term value of yesterday's RNS's has truly sunk in for all, especially new investors.
Most have noticed the headline, total £750m figure which is enormous considering our current MCap (and remember this is purely in addition to current contracts for centralised testing), but what will really effect the long term value is the penetration into the NHS with the q16 and q32 machines.
We have an initial order for 300 machines, and then a potential 700 more. This is 1000 machines in potentially 1000 different trusts/hospitals/settings.
The total maximum capacity = 6.25hours x 32wells x 1000machines = 200,000 tests per day = 1m per week!
Now this is a theoretical maximum based on the q32 being used most of the day and you can scale this down as you see fit (or up if you want to use 24/7), but the real long term benefit is the penetration. Each machine in a different setting will have one of the new sales team members to come and demonstrate and regularly check all is working. This allows them to build relationships with hospital staff. What must be understood is that, once they have these machines in the hospital, they can be used for all sorts of PCR tests, not just Covid 19 and the hospital no longer has to send off the tests; they can get results for other tests within the hour too. This is where the longer term sales and value will be.
In addition, we would hope with the newer easier to use tests currently under development, that require even fewer steps and less operator expertise, the q16 / q 32 machines can be rolled out to an ever wider range of settings, starting with care homes then possibly airports and places of work - anywhere where the wait time of between 30 minutes to an hour for an accurate test would be acceptable. Note, costs per test for the user are hugely reduced by not having to send tests to a centralised lab.
GLA, DYOR, £1bn, SP £15