Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I agree with a lot of you here, Novacyt will acquire a company (like they did with PrimerDesign) which will well extend our portfolio or our supply chain coverage so we can consolidate our position first in the "Diagnostic market".
We have molecular products with Primer, Protein-based products with Lab21 and Microgen... What else do we need ?
RBM : Just to be clear, I too would love for a takeover offer soon, at a decent price.
One figure floated was around 7€. Nothing fancy but at this point I'd welcome such an offer.
In the meantime, it's worth looking at other strategies, such as that of a buyout.
Hopefully more people will investigate this kind of outcome.
Hi Allah, I'll have a look at them. I'm certainly not emotionally attached to any share and not to a buy out. Might seem cold, but I'm here to invest and gain a return. Anyone in the same boat as me would be keen for a T/O, it makes absolute sense. However, these things rarely happen, so happy to see NCYT succeed as a stand alone (which I think they could). Good luck....
From the half year trading update
"the Company is reviewing its capital allocation policy to enhance and accelerate long-term value creation through its three-pillar strategy of organic, R&D and acquisitive growth"
As mentioned it's under review. Not sure who they might take over. I know some people had previously suggested optigene
RBM : This is because I'm not emotionally attached to a takeover (quickest and easiest way to make a profit innit), and I have realised that the concept of a buyout is no less sound than the arguments of the people drooling over dat takeover have laid out (e.g. being taken over buy a big pharma... which already produces its own array of tests).
Do you absolutely want a name ? Okay I'll give you a name : Biosynex.
Diagnostics test maker with a good marketshare in France, many products that NCYT doesn't offer (including point of care tests, drug tests, pregnancy tests...), and only valued at 82m€ as of today.
Would NCYT be dying to buy them out, or at least buy a significant stake in their business ?
I can't say for sure, but by the look of it, it seems quite sensible to have a proper gander at that company.
Allah, with respect, if you don't know of any suitable candidates to buy and have not researched it, how can you possibly say that a purchase is 'at least as much likely as a takeover, if not more' that a T/O of NCYT? Can't think if any business that NCYT would be desperate to buy, but NCYT could be a prime target for many.
RBM : it all depends on the terms of the operation. A well-fitting buyout will create more value than a poorly agreed takeover.
Ask Qiagen shareholders how they feel about their takeover terms right now.
As for who NCYT should buy out : I don't know. As I said, I haven't really researched this topic. But I'm mentionning it because it seems at least as much likely as a takeover, if not more.
At any rate, the usual criteria will apply : look for good assets, belonging to an undervalued or badly managed company. Or for a fairlyvalued company with a strong presence in complementary markets.
IIRC - but I had only read that in passing - NCYT only bought a chunk of ODX's business back then. Dunno if that's for a lack of interest in the rest, or for sheer lack of opportunity (i.e. ODX would sell other stuff).
Now I'm not sure if it'd make sense for NCYT to combine its operations with the rest of ODX's business. Or maybe it does, but ODX could be finicky regarding the terms of the combination (JV, buyout...).
What I'm expecting is :
1) A fitting buyout would increase the share price.
2) A buyout would not take place before the end of 2020 or even end of 2021.
This is because both NCYT and prospective targets got their hands full with the WuFlu, and also because due diligence takes a long time. However I have no doubts that Graham already has potential suitors in the back of his mind.
3) Don't discount French companies as buyout or JV targets.
There are plenty of French diagnostics companies, and one shouldn't lose sight of the fact that NCYT itself is a French company : it makes mergers all the more easier.
All companies reference potential options for expansion, given profitability, none list themselves as a target. Unless you have emotional ties to NCYT, a T/O would be more advantageous than buying out a smaller competitor. Who are you suggesting that would offer a material and financial boost to NCYT. This might be your preferred option, for whatever reason, but it's not the most likely. I can't see any companies in a related sector that NCYT would want to buy. However, NCYT will be of great interest to others.
Yeap Allah, can you image? Will be much better than a T/O (connection between Novacyt and Omega)
i feel thats whats coming...
Obviously he wouldn't mention any possible takeover, not even talks that've taken place. It's always too sensitive, not even on a legal aspect, just commercially. That's covered in my Note 1.
My central point is that NCYT already has a history of buying out other companies, and Graham could well do it again. It'd be healthier to focus on this.
Some people mentionned ODX earlier. I haven't looked into it ; neither from a commercial nor a financial perspective.
Allah, I don't think He will mention such (price sensitive) information if they don't have any price or a particular agreement with some Big Pharma Company. Could be against the Law Mate.
Graham has repeatedly mentionned external growth as a means to increase the company's market share, so those who like to speculate should start to ponder about which companies could be good takeover targets *for NCYT*.
Note 1 : Graham didn't mention NCYT being acquired by some other company, but this doesn't mean such a possibility should be ruled out.
Note 2 : It is entirely possible to both take-over *and* be taken over, successively.