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Great reversal in play.Uptrend now.Dyor
From RNS 07.10.2019
New molecular respiratory panel ready for the US market
"Novacyt's molecular business unit Primerdesign, has completed the design and development of the molecular respiratory panel based on a 384 well plate format for use by its North American business partner in their CLIA approved diagnostic testing laboratory network. Primerdesign has designed the multiplex test to identify 37 respiratory pathogens, which makes it one of the most comprehensive respiratory panels available in the market today. In addition to identifying a large number of respiratory disease pathogens, the new diagnostic product has been designed with proprietary freeze-drying technology to stabilise the product to optimise its ease of use and performance."
"Primerdesign will supply this product under a five year manufacturing agreement as its partner launches the new respiratory panel in the US market through its own clinical testing laboratories to provide a Laboratory Developed Diagnostic test result for its customers. The initial order for $105,000 has been received by Primerdesign to supply its US partner."
For me, the above points to Primerdesign providing the panel(s) to the partner for use in their own clinical testing laboratories. Not sure the partner is selling them.
Strikes me though that this might be the same US partner that Primerdesign is working with for Covid -19 test kit sales.
certainly be interesting how Zimbabwe will pay for them. South Korea fully experiencing 2nd wave started after the bars and clubs were reopened. Secondly it would be foolish imo if you believed any of the death totals being issued by China, North Korea or south Korea and that their track and trace is as good as it is cracked up to be.
China and S Korea have nailed the virus and they use they use PCR tests like NCYT.
You need to let them know they're doing it all wrong.
Again, I ask what amazing tests do you recommend China and S Korea change to?
Check out a great S Korean Covid testing company Seegene:105 million USD revenue, producing 1million tests/month and market value of 2 Billion. Sound familiar?
From Forbes April issue
My interpretation won’t be welcome here but I will offer it
- First to market is not the best in a pandemic, I believe lots of orders were made for political reasons and nova subjected these to minimum orders and time scales to match production. This does not imply a relevant projection as it was necessary that week, we now have hindsight.
- 24 - 48 hour kits were never going to be the answer to the question that is covid
- a cure isn’t guaranteed, but 5 minute tests is
This is why I wouldn’t invest in this company, thry May have plenty of future contracts, but in my opinion theses will just be locked in with no potential of renewal.
I will remind you that the RN stated Zimbabwe is their second largest order.
That should scream guys !!! Seriously
Paul - you are nuts with your prediction. 170p puts us at £120 Market Cap. We have done that in sales since February, less than 4 months. The sales are not going to dry up anytime soon. As our society reopens there will be testing on an even grander scale. If you get a cold, you will need a test before going back to work. The revenues by the winter could be huge and sure there will be many tests out there with a fairly saturated market but we know that Primerdesign is the gold standard PCR test and Novacyt have delivered on every promise.
If we did ever see £2 you can bet every man and his dog will be throwing money in. I think at these prices we are a real takeover target and one that will be too cheap in my opinion.
Klopp, I don't know if you saw my post from last week about the respiratory diseases market. Last November Novacyt designed and launched a multiplex respiratory test which tests for 37 different pathogen's. This is currently being used and marketed by their US partner.
Paulo - From RNS 02.06.2020:
"Novacyt is now selling its COVID-19 test into more than 130 countries, with the top two countries being the UK and Germany."
"Following completion of a formal evaluation of the Primerdesign COVID-19 test by the Medicines Control Authority of Zimbabwe and a successful tender process, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Health and Child Care has awarded Primerdesign with a contract for the supply of 1.5 million tests. Outside the UK, this is the largest contract secured by Novacyt to date"
For both quotes to be correct:
1 Germany must be buying regularly, with no orders larger than 1.5 million tests (not test kits.)
2 Zimbabwe has provided just one contract for 1.5 million tests (not test kits.)
Any other interpretations?
As an aside, and with nobody worldwide sure whether to expect a second spike, or for test and trace to work better than expected, it makes sense to receive smaller quantities of tests, to ensure that fresh test kits are always available.
That would work for both German and Zimbabwe orders.
I’m sure you would however professionals with the correct background in said deals haven’t. So let’s go with the professionals instead of someone Spouting nonsense on a forum for guidance. Blimey!
Paul, to quote you 'my opinion is that they are burning thru the nova tests and getting ready for the new faster tests from different companies.'
Name me a covid company making £1million/day?
Name me these amazing new tests you talk of?
The respiratory diagnosis market was worth 5 billion in 2016 and the largest market share was the US. As you know we're awaiting US figures. There's a lot of money to be made and we're at the forefront.
As i said yesterday if I was a VC or Private equity firm at current price I would be eyeing up this company, with sales, forecast, cash, R&D, distribution network. Qiagen went for 10x its revenue when thermo fisher bought them....let that sink in.....that would put Novacyt at £1bn plus mcap.
Another personal post, it’s strange. Every investment is made on your own thoughts so no need for getting emotional and prissy about it.
I have a different opinion than you, one of us will be right, one wrong. Who cares ?
Lighten up a little and stop treating everything as an attack. It’s a bit wierd.
Paul as you confirmed your no chart expert, pointless throwing figures out because it’s all hot air.
Your nowt but a bitter person who’s had a bad week with his investments...
Facts are as of 1st June we had done 120m in revenue from just covid test. Now at 10m capacity a month so even at £5 a test you can say end of June we be at 170m revenue and so on. It is more than £5 a test anyway. So probably a lot closer to 200m. The over £250m end of July and so on. Margin over 50% so cash increasing. Current mcap is £190m...do not lose sight of this. So anyone saying a fall, have a think at how silly that mcap would be.
Add on to the top US, 3 new revenue streams with the mobile testing, the extraction and reagents....
Sentiment may not be high right now but that can turn in a day and fundamentals will shine through.
Hi prop no I made very little, I’m just offering my opinion,
This share will drop tomorrow.... and the rest of the week. In my opinion hitting 200 by Friday and testing 170 next week.
It was a 2 month fashion trend that is now outdated. Sure they have a bit of cash but that’s already being spent on debt, then IMO R&D and then new premises and kit. We will see a new invigorated and better equipped company as a result, with capital and expertise behind it but the thinking that all this money will make it back to share holder s short term is just crazy.
In France, we are thinking now, that the list price for 1 test is 5€.
That may explain many things.
Germany is the 2nd largest market.
But in Europe !!!!!!!!!!!
Zimbabwe jus ahead.
I don't feel comfortable with that kind a presentation from Nova.
The order from Zimbabwe will help us secure orders from other African countries, either directly or via WHO. And given that we take payment upfront for all orders, we’ll continue to grow our cash pile with no credit risk from any customers.
Our WHO approval and existing relationship with them during previous outbreaks will help drive sales IMO.
Paul is bitter because he got it wrong here and at avct...
No doubt he will say he sold out there and did really well here.. ZZzzzzzzzzz
Cash Cash Cash - Paul
End of April the figure was £90 million. A month later it's gone up to £120 million. Are these not impressive results? And what were the figures for the earlier months? Does this not show exponential growth? Is Africa not an important market and sales are sales wherever they are made. Dyor.
Course it will, just above Zimbabwe hahahaha
Paul, its not as bad as you paint.
Yes, Zimbabwe placed an order of 1.5million.
Say £7.50/test x 1.5million=£11,250,000 from Zimbabwe.
That leaves £18,750,000 profit from the rest of the orders.
I don't see what's bad about that. The global reach of NCYT is a huge advantage. We can tap into any location the virus rears it's head. Small, light and nimble.
(the example above is the worst case, we don't even know of the 30 million profit included 500k initial or 1.5million total test order)
No doubt US will be 2nd largest order shortly, possibly even the largest!!
Cash Cash Cash
Test Test Test
The second largest order was Zimbabwe. It was in the latest RNA.
No other country has placed a order larger and Zimbabwe was tiny.
Read the RNS, blimey I cannot believe I have to spell this out
I obviously mean institution or country orders, over the last few months hundreds ex Harley street tooth whiteners have turned their hand to covid testing, the same round the world. We have seen that the term ‘shipping to *** countries ‘ means nothing and is in fact misleading to shareholders. It’s factual but in my opinion misleading. Sell one to Dennis in New Zealand adds a country to the list.
We have seen the shocking RN stating that Zimbabwe is the 2nd largest order currently.
No wonder that went down like a bag of spuds.
Come on, this is a joke now guys?
1 The second largest market is Germany according to a recent RNS.
2 "We have seen no substantial orders aside from the initial panic order from the pandemic start"
We were recently updated that we are now selling to 130 countries, an increase of 30% from the 100 countries we knew about.
How do you know please, that none of these 30 countries have provided a 'substantial' order?
3 Agree with gggg21 comments re further UK orders, as 288,000 per week isn't going to be enough shortly.