Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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H1 = £13m loss
H2
Revenue £50m
EBITDA 43% £21m
FY21 EBITDA £13m loss add £21m = £8m
DRB, our earnings were 43% of revenue in H1, so I've assumed roughly the same for H2. If revenue is 100m for FY, then after deduction of 13m loss (from DHSC), we get a minimum of £25m (could be up to £30m).
Also SPQ. £25m EBITDA seems high to me. I'm assuming you are including the dispute. H1 was a loss of £13m so I'm expecting FY21 to be in the region of £10m unless we get a nice surprise about the dispute.
Shelldonald....you seem to be forgetting that most countries in the world still require you to have a pcr test before you can enter
If mine was Disney Land. That's out of this world
Disney Land? The logic is all there. At least share your logic that suggests this will go to 150 which is £106m mcap. I'd love to rip it to pieces.
When their is nothing on TV you can always read the novacyt bb....
Wba, reign it in.
Fair enough, if cash is now 100m, that would put us at EV:EBITDA of 3.5, and would value us conservatively from my previous assumptions at an SP of around £8.
June £77m
Sales of say £50m in H2 with a cash conversion of 32% so
£15m
£17m potential tax refund
These figures assume no movement in stock, debtors or creditors and no capex spend.
No way near £70m though imo
Imo cash worse case is £92m, best case is £120m
Cash decreased around 14m from 6 months 2020 to HY 2021 (91 to 77m, although we were debt-free), so I am simply assuming a similar but smaller reduction. This is the one variable I cannot be certain about so any more robust calcs would be welcome.
In € => 30-06-2021 62,12€
31-12-2020 236,70€
30-06-2020 72,39€
Vatel Capital S.A.S. 4,18% 2,95 0 13,37 19-juil-2021
BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. 2,95% 2,09 0 9,44 19-juil-2021
J O Hambro Capital Management Limited 1,49% 1,05 0 5,69 30-nov-2021
Octopus Investments Limited 0,74% 0,53 -0,06 2,84 30-nov-2021
Argenta Asset Management SA 0,40% 0,28 0 1,48 31-août-2021
Avantis Investors 0,21% 0,14 +0,12 0,72 31-déc-2021
Lyxor Asset Management 0,19% 0,13 +0,00 0,65 31-déc-2021
Family (Graham Mullis) 0,17% 0,12 0 1,20 31-mars-2021
Mullis (Graham D) 0,17% 0,12 +0,11 1,26 11-nov-2020
State Street Global Advisors (US) 0,11% 0,08 +0,00 0,38 31-déc-2021
Degroof Petercam Asset Management 0,06% 0,04 0 0,15 30-sept-2021
Crinelli (Jean-Pierre Jacques) 0,04% 0,03 0 0,30 31-mars-2021
....... Last element to my knowledge.
My thoughts exactly Neil. £70m cash? What is your calc?
Why only £70m cash for FY when the figure for H1 was £77.2m?
Done some brief approx calcs based on HY 2021 update:
Probable FY 2021 results: Important note - this is taking into account the one-off DHSC write down including inventory costs etc.
Revenue £100m
Gross profit £40m
EBITDA £25m
Cash £70m (I'm not sure what tax rebates we'll be getting FY 2020 so that cash number could be higher).
Which gives an EV:EBITDA of 4.8. This is significantly lower than the market average. For example, ThermoFisher are at 19.3, Qiagen at 12.1, and Roche at 13.
So even if we take a very conservative estimate of EV:EBIDTA ratio of 10, our SP should at least be around £6, and this is based on us getting NOTHING from the DHSC dispute, which is highly unlikely.
I'm not an accountant, and these figures are based on rough estimates. However, it does clearly suggest that we are significantly undervalued and provided DA can show us a clear forward path in next Friday's FY statement, then we should move up quite significantly from where we currently are. IMO.