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The only problem I can see which would be more specific to a recent challenger bank would be the age of the mortgages and being less mature,hence they have more risk to default if rates were to rise to steeply-unlikely.
illbetabuck your "If interest rates rocket"
No one wants that and most unlikely with our fragile economy but rates closer to inflation,that would be nice. House prices would slip and some would be caught in negative equity, we've been here before but the higher interest rate has always compensated the banks more than any defaults and loan to value have already been reduced.
We need to improve affordability to turn the tide on home ownership which has declined from 73% in 2007 to currently 65%.
Low interest rates nightmare for savers.
Higher interest rates will be attractive to savers, switch from buy to let market which will offer more properties to first time buyers.
There's a roof for every other bank share price. Say interest rates increase, savings and mortgage market rockets. The major banks would go back to glory SP days. My forecast in that best case scenario is:
HSBA 700
BARC 240
LLOY 75
VMUK 200
RBS 290
but in good market conditions MTRO could double or treble from here as a starting point.
You sound like 0% risk dividend investor, MTRO is not for you.
Theosus
Potential takeover yes; all the signs are here. Had shorts not reduced at the same time, I would have worried.
To me the worst case scenario is MTRO struggles with MREL cost and FCA fine, but slowly turns around the business to profitability. In such case it could take 2 or 3 years to reach its 0.7 or 0.9 NAV. Slow and painful recovery.
Best case scenario, takeover and eradicate 10% MREL. FCA fine is mild. Fireworks!
Either way this is not going under. I can sleep at night knowing my investment will not evaporate.
Here's some good news if you can't find any.
"Not all bad news.
Nevertheless, the bank won praise for its performance in the third quarter, with analysts at Jefferies noting that it outperformed their expectations.
"On costs, Metro appears to be delivering on its promised transformation program. Retail customer deposits grew 14% quarter on quarter despite £213 million of deposit outflows elsewhere in September. On balance, Metro's ship looks steadied with robust capital across the structure — 16.2% CET1 — and the onus is now on management to execute operationally," Jefferies' analysts wrote.
Goodbody suggested that Metro's retention of Donaldson's services as an adviser was an indication that it expected the regulatory inquiries to have a relatively benign conclusion without uncovering evidence of an intent to misstate the riskiness of the loans affected.
"So perhaps a rap on the knuckles, a manageable but headline grabbing fine and some mild inflation in Pillar 2 requirements, we don't think the [Bank of England] wants Metro to fail," wrote Cronin."
If you don't see the potential turn around here, you don't believe it will return to at least 0.7 NAV, then why are you here? What is your objective?
You want clean as a whistle market, go invest in other banks! Oh wait they all are facing growth issues.
"...there plenty of other stocks which on face value are much more attractive."
What a dry lettuce you're. You mean shares like vodafone or RMG?
MREL issue kicked it down from 280 region. This would no longer be an issue.
you're rancid.
"If I could find some positive news I would post it. But there isn't any !!!"
- increased deposits! after 4% withdrawal (yer mates in the press are not quick to highlight that).
- new stores? what is that, if not core business and part of the business plan.
"...there plenty of other stocks which on face value are much more attractive."
- did you read that from your boiler room group posts. If I had a penny for every time i have read such unspecific and non-committed remarks over the last decade on LSE I could buy MTRO at £40 a share.
"This business isn't even making a profit"
- it is in growth mode. shall i book you into night school?
Amazing you spend yet another weekend trotting out any and every negative spin.