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a slight positive that it went through, if the regulator had serious concerns they would have blocked it - agree
I suspect that the shift in strategy/direction of travel at this stage of the game was more of a deflection and a clutching at straws than a significant and cohesive manoeuvre to get out of the current mess.
the markets didn't view it as a game changer thats for sure, the share price continues to drift lower with the sector despite the shorts reducing. And the metro SP is down more than the sector since the large director purchase - which is a worry.
I'm just trying to provide balance, I've watched another month of matlot's fables which could have cost some on here more of their hard earned. There are a few holders including you Cud that I hope recoup some of their losses, I hope to recoup mine too.
GL..
Look at the bond price. It is screaming 20% coupon if they need to issue MREL's.
That is the risk with this, unless they get AIRB between now and FY results they will be forced to do a placing unless the MREL framework review is favourable. I will not be holding this into FY results.
I do not see a takeover in this environment unless we get a vaccine, if this thing did not have these crazy leases it would have been acquired long ago.
zccax, time is a luxury they probably don't have.
senior director buying at 114, a shrewd move, a plan to instil confidence or an act of desperation ?
of course I could be wrong, so far I've mainly been wrong on this when I've been buying, not selling or staying out. Placing at 60p or takeover at £2 ish, thats my guess but I don't like the odds on the latter.
The leases the old chairman entered into to give his missus a job on the side are like a poison pill. Consider MTRO as a retail property holding with a bank attached to it. MTRO just need to hang in there and keep on growing their customer base, as time goes on those lease liabilities will decrease and their income base will increase.
Agree but the real £££’s get lost by risk takers too. Surely the secret is to try and tip the odds in your favour and not against you. Not sure it’s here, certainly not yet and certainly not without something more tangible, be that positive or negative.
The upside on an asset strip is not to be made on a hostile takeover IMO (leases and running costs) The takeover story is based on synergies which I just don’t see.
Stay positive, there is certainly room for one or two more to try and turn it in to a circle again.
For me it’s still not investable though, so I’ll probably see you at 60 or 120 depending on who’s right ?!
Comments from the PRA in Jan 2020 ( source: Telegraph) on the matter of rumours about a Metro takeover
“We approach these things with caution, we’d have to be sure it made sense for the resulting entity,” says Woods. “It’s been quite striking to me that really we’ve only had that one consolidation [in banking] – Virgin Money and Clydesdale. The possibility of others seems to me quite relevant and would not be problematic in principle...ENDS
... and that was before the covid devestation of Metro. Metro now also flagging that it'll breach MREL regulatory capital in H2.
Agree it’s easier to sit and observe the painful erosion of ones capital investment... but ultimately the real £££ get made by risk takers (be that longs or shorts)... difficult to call bottom just yet.
Imo you could buy this for as much as £400m... asset strip.., and still turn a tidy profit...
So at 85p... worth a gamble or average down ... I guess!!
several hedge funds around the world have ceased to exist, most have lost money this year - they're no different they can just play the game by different rules - that's all.
Odey has performed badly - fact. The concern for me here was that there were several, the city is awash with the old boys networks passing on information, I didn't think they could all be wrong, so far this belief has saved me money. I said months ago it would be a takeover or a placing/fundraise - place your bets. I didn't believe the takeover story, so it will be a placing or a fundraise - at best. You can listen to me or matlot or neither...
Imo structural issues can be resolved... but customer perception is the life blood without which there would be no business.
Fortunately on the latter point... this bunch are doing very well... That’s the heartbeat... shorts can’t kill that off
or something else
maybe feast on the scraps when the inevitable happens here, it has significant structural problems which will get worse before there is any chance of them getting better. Maybe there is no-one interested in an outdated business model that is spending a lot more than it makes to keep a cr@p idea going - just maybe..
shorts reducing yet the share price keeps falling - not a good sign when the holy grail and BBQ invites were being sent out on just that..
It looks like we will see more banking mergers possible acquisitions than we have for seen for a while… Question is does the predator wait for the prey to be cleared by the regulators or move faster in order to gain a better bargain…