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Grab a nice big chunk at 28.62.... a gift if you ask me below the 30p placing
What we need is three wise men.
Were funds set aside re estimated delinquencies that could revert to profits?
At this level you would expect Gilinksi to be building his stake if he had any intentions of buying out the remaining half!
Must be a back ground seller here selling at a loss, never thought this would go so low since the equity injection
"Let's focus on finding solutions rather than assigning blame."
ChatGPT .... obvious innit?
Chatbot and two good, hmmmmm. One poster?
While utilizing ChatGPT for investor relations may offer cost savings and efficiency, replacing the entire management team with an AI might not be feasible or advisable due to the complexity of leadership roles and the need for human judgment and empathy in decision-making processes.
Thanks Five. I enjoyed that. In all seriousness I hope you keep your job and are blessed with a management team able to display leadership, judgement and empathy in the not too distant future
ChatGPT:
While utilizing ChatGPT for investor relations may offer cost savings and efficiency, replacing the entire management team with an AI might not be feasible or advisable due to the complexity of leadership roles and the need for human judgment and empathy in decision-making processes.
me:
LOL
"I asked ChatGPT to reply to ChatBot2 response. AI vs AI."
A very sensible answer Chat GPT. Replacing Metro's investor relations team with Chat GPT sounds like one of the more sensible cost reduction options taken. Can we do the same with the management team?
I asked ChatGPT to reply to ChatBot2 response. AI vs AI.
ChatGPT:
I understand your frustration, but jumping to assumptions about someone's role or expertise isn't constructive. It's essential to address the underlying concerns about the bank's financial decisions objectively and collaboratively. Let's focus on finding solutions rather than assigning blame.
No. Running an unhedged balance sheet which has resulted in the bank foregoing >£200m of income which would have avoided the need for a capital raise and saved most of us on this chat significant money is what is absurd.
I have to assume from your limited understanding of the issues that you must be what is left of Metro's investor relations team!
SVB invested in long dated 30-year bonds when rates were low as SVB bet rates will stay low.
MTRO Dan Frumkin invested in much shorter maturities. To bring up SVB in this conversation is absurd
If the UK had a deep pool of government guaranteed 10 year mortgages you can bet your life Frumkin would have put everything he had into them for an extra 20bp. So now we are just arguing how stupid Frumkin was, but we can atleast agree he was pretty f*ing stupid
“Metro put atleast £4b of the proceeds of the mortgage sale in long dated government gilts- average of c5 years from what i can see. You can see it in the latest results. you clearly just dont understand the basics here “
SVB's mistake was investing in longer-term mortgage securities with more than 10 years to maturity, rather than shorter-maturity Treasuries
Slight corection, They put most of the £3b of mortgage sale into Gilts, adding to a book of atelast £2b. SO they have £5b of treasury assets yielding 0.5%. It is in the annual reports- you can see what it does in the fair value adjustments. So yes, Dan Frumkin was just as stupid as SVB
"SVB bought securities with long-dated maturities in what was a low return environment. Dan Frumkin did not succumb to the same stupidity so I don’t understand"
Metro put atleast £4b of the proceeds of the mortgage sale in long dated government gilts- average of c5 years from what i can see. You can see it in the latest results. you clearly just dont understand the basics here
SVB bought securities with long-dated maturities in what was a low return environment.
Dan Frumkin did not succumb to the same stupidity so I don’t understand. I am wondering if this chatbot is an AI, ChatGPT?
"Chatbox1 can you try and translate that into plain simple English there is alot of smoke and mirrors in those posts and it's difficult I guess fir most readers to figure out what you are trying to say!"
Difficult when you deal with experts for a living but i will try. Metro should have made a load of money from rising interest rates because it had a load of low cost deposits. The challenge is because its assets were unhedged you have to wait until they mature (i.e. if you took out a 2 year Fixed term mortgage i have to wait 2 years and then reprice it). That should still have been ok albeit we missed out on the bonanza that saw other banks reach peak profitability this year. We shoudl have seen strong profits in 2025. But rising rates also push up the cost of deposits. That was entirely manageable with the business Metro was running, but Frumkin somehow managed to engineer a run on the bank which meant 25% of his low cost deposits walked out the door. That has cost the best part of £70-£100m quid and pushed the bank back into losses. The cost programme is a short term option to stem the bleeding but unfortunately what they have targeted are the higher yielding consumer finance business which would be making good money today, and the branch business which underpins the low cost deposits. So as I said, their low cost deposits are disappearing replaced by very expensive retail and wholesale funding. The bank needs higher yield lending to make that work. But at the moment it has £3b of mortgages that are underwater and clearly uneconomic to sell and £5b of treasury assets a bunch of which is where Frumkin put the funding from selling the last chunk of mortgages to Natwest in, so are locked in at 0.5% until 2025. Criminal stupidity that has long reaching consequences not unlike SVB. I want what you want, which is a Metro bank that works. But it can't be done as a stand alone entity anymore. And we retail investors are highly vulnerable because Galinski will dilute us given half a chance, either when he has to put the money in to unlock teh organic strategy or if he becomes the buyer. So we need the bank to fire Frumkin and sell ASAP
Chatbox1 can you try and translate that into plain simple English there is alot of smoke and mirrors in those posts and it's difficult I guess fir most readers to figure outcwhat you are trying to say!
Great price for new entrants tbf. Managed to get my averages down to 38p but I might lose my house! GLA
Firstly, the hypothesis that you should stick together a specialist lender with a subscale current account provider is one i entirely agree with. It helps solve the quality of earnings issue with the former and the scale issues of the latter. So you get a tick for that
The issue is that Metro does not have the organic capital generating capability to do this sort of balance sheet transformation on its own in the near term.. As i have outlined below, it takes 3 years before management think they will make meaningful profits and there is plenty of downside in the interim. I wont set out in detail the maths behind why you can't just cycle existing mortgages and treasury assets into high risk lending in 2024.25, but its to do with the fact that the book is unhedged. So you need fresh capital to achieve this ambition (and again, a competent management team)
I think holding on expecting this management team to pull off the unlikely outcome above is a bad option. Which leaves 2 others
Firstly Galinski could do the buying . The issue for us is he will want to back the combination into the Metro entity to avoid fair value issues. That means it will involve cash and paper. And guess who will get diluted on that one. Yes, the same mugs (like me) that got diluted last time.
Alternative is to sell (to Shawbrook). I am all for that. But we need Frumkin out the picture, because he is seen as a complete fool by anyone that has had dealings with him including I strongly suspect both Pollen Street and Shawbrook management
"So we can expect Chatbot2 to come on line shortly to try and talk the share price down..."
Go on then, It's a quiet day and i'll have my 2p's worth (or £2.50p as Non-partisan will wittily point out).
I should start by saying I am not a day trader. I don't trade momentum and unlike TOD (thanks for genuinely useful intel BTW) I don't understand the dark arts of shorting. If you do, then i am sure there is money to be made from the volatility that there will be as this bounces between 27p and 34p for the next few months.
But you and others like Sharebul are moving into my territory when you talk about fundamentals and, in the probably naive view that there remains a vanishing small number of people on share chat who want to understand them. I'll set out the issue with your hypothesis regarding a re-rate
Im new buying all i can get under 30p a share this will rise when next 1/2 uear results come in .as long as interests rates stay around 4.5% we are quids in
So we can expect Chatbot2 to come on line shortly to try and talk the share price down...
No doubt he sold out last year, got caught out by the unexpected melee in October ('Member Since
11th Oct 2023') then wants to buy back in at a far lower price. Explains the negative and disparaging comments to date!