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Apols I shouldn't have included fx as a temp issue there. It does need to be pre agreed.
I'd still like to think getting the MDA over the line asap is best for all parties. I think MoM should update given its own deadline's expired. Hopefully the delay isn't driven by temporary fluctuating issues like fuel supply, inflation and location of FX accounts. They're relevant of course to how quickly/slowly to build and produce over the life of the mine. But right now let's see the MDA so at least we know we can actually develop Songwe when the time's right.
Good post TT
Unfortunately, we cannot walk away from Songwe, the economics and future value are too great.
We can in the meantime, focus our efforts elsewhere (thankfully, we have established a superb technology that now likely eclipses our current market cap regardless)
The predicted EBITDA for Songwe was £200m PA and it feeds directly into the Pulawy plant, giving both projects enhanced economics. If we walk away from Songwe we lose a hugely valuable asset for Pulawy and strategic importance for the EU
I can understand both parties interests, Malawi needs FX on home soil but large lends don't want to put their balances there (Looks at the IMF loans for example) especially since inflation is not yet under control in the country. The year on year inflation rate for November 2023 stands at 33.1 percent, an increase from the 26.9 percent recorded in October 2023 - Malawi is also undergoing severe fuel shortages, not ideal for building a project. In fact, I believe if we did get funding 12 moths ago, we would be looking at tremendous difficult today vs our original economics (similar to HZM) which could have crippled the company.
The best thing for us to do regarding Songwe, is establish our other projects and certainly don't show our cards. We are in a great position with HyProMag / Cotec, the market has crushed our SP down to a level where Songwe doesnt factor into any of our valuation. Remember Malawi needs this much more than Mkango do, OEMS and GOVTS need the product much more than Mkango do, it would be foolish for us to lose any ground just because it has been dragged on for so long.
Procurement of REEs including recycling is part of the US 2024 fiscal defence spending bill that has been passed
'FY2024 House NDAA Bill Provisions
Multi-year Procurement Authority for Domestically Processed Rare Earth Elements (Sec. 181)
Allows the National Defense Stockpile to enter into long-term procurement contracts with domestic rare earth element (REE) processing and recycling projects.
Gives the stockpile advance procurement authority, allowing it to pay projects prior to delivery.'
It is irritating but we just have to wait. Doing business in Africa takes a skilled, diplomatic and patient hand. They’ll tickle it over the line. Have faith. I’m more worried that the markets will continue to be depressed regardless of news for the forseable. If Biden decides to give the Houthis a hiding then we call all be sitting underwater for some time. This year is pivotal in so many ways. So many bad actors crippling the global economy. If you can accumulate at these prices and hold for as long as it takes then you should be laughing at some point. But that’s if Trump doesn’t get back in, Ukraine falls and Africa pivots to china/Russia. We could be left holding our d£cks and a load of recycled magnets.
Might be... but I'm sure I'm not alone when I say I'm sick to death of waiting... all that fantastic Hypromag news we've had and almost back in the 8s, it's just a drain now. Annoyingly MoM keeps casually saying "just a few things to sort" like they need to find a stamp or do a bit of photo copying.
Might be just around the corner though?
It must be getting close to Mkango holders showing support for the Malawi project to be shelved, it’s repeated can-kicking is holding us back.
The silence is the killer... watching this drift back to the 8s again doesn't get any easier. Surely it's close, I can't imagine another "finalising the MDA" raise would go down too well if it drags on much longer.
Anyone think we’ll be back in the 8’s ? I’m getting right fed up now. Still not selling any though.
#China's retail sales of passenger #cars reached 21.7 mln units in 2023, up 5.6%; NEV sales reached 7.7 mln units, up 36.2%, said China Passenger Car Association.
#NEV penetration reached 40.2% in Dec, rising 10.6 ppt from a year ago; penetration for 2023 reached 35.7%, rising by 8.1 ppt from 2022.
Volkswagen Group: Battery-Electric Vehicle Deliveries Accounted for 8.3% of All Sales in 2023 Compared With 6.9% in 2022
'BEIJING (AP) — China announced sanctions Sunday on five American defense-related companies in response to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and U.S sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals.
The sanctions will freeze any property the companies have in China and prohibit organizations and individuals in China from doing business with them, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement posted online.
It was unclear what impact, if any, the sanctions would have on the companies, BAE Systems Land and Armaments, Alliant Techsystems Operations, AeroVironment, Viasat and Data Link Solutions. Such sanctions are often mostly symbolic as American defense contractors generally don’t sell to China.'
Reckon those companies rely upon REE's in much of their rechs and well China controls the REE market... so Time to ramp up domestic none China supplies I think
This is firmly underpinned in the 8-10p range by Cotec effectively marking to market valuations across the various bits that make up MKA.
If the MDA never arrives it's neither here nor there re the current SP/mcap and we wait for the recycling sector to take off properly later this year, specifically from Q2.
If the MDA does arrive then that's a heap of icing on the cake but we've still got the cake if it doesn't.
Thanks both, very balanced views. I’m slowly learning to ride the highs and lows and getting this feedback really does put it into perspective. I too want to add when I can. I find it an exciting share as it has so many possibilities and potential funding streams.
I feel better already and don’t care when the MDA is signed now, just another step along the way.
GLA
Personally, I'm passed caring about the MDA it is kinda moot @ 10p /£20m as the Cotec funding suggests ...
Fwiw, the market demand at the moment for REE products is low, this will change.
In the meantime if commercialised recycling can get traction them revenue will support the future needs of the company.
I continue to buy as funds allow, short term ranges are irrelevant.
Mka never said by the end of the year, they have never given a timeline.
Malawi gov set the date, they also suggested the same a year ago.
It is closer than ever though. Just be patient and lock these away for a long term view.
Although the MDA is not everything with this company, I’m a tad surprised there has been no update from the company. A one liner would do but not to have anything is a poor show if you ask me. Let’s hope we get something next week.
Agree crumbs
They've got SH to look after as well, although their SP has performed much better than ours over the last 12 months (2/4 of their investments have already multibagged, one by 25 fold)
I am sure they will do the same with ours
The purchasing of the 3 reactors pretty much tells me that Cotec are SUPER confident in getting GOV or other funding in the US :)
Shocked to see #MKA back under 10p, really should be at least double
Another fantastic opportunity for those who are not currently invested, or those who are and have spare cash
The US project is storming ahead, with three reactors already purchased by Cotec
As for the UK project, in ~6 months we could be looking at scaling to 100t/pa and in 12 months potentially on the road to 1000/tpa (with multiple offtakes)
For those who like a spike in share price, what would happen to the valuation here if we signed an offtake with say Apple for example?
https://www.apple.com/uk/newsroom/2023/04/apple-will-use-100-percent-recycled-cobalt-in-batteries-by-2025/#:~:text=By%202025%2C%20all%20Apple%2Ddesigned%20batteries%20will%20be%20made%20with,percent%20recycled%20rare%20earth%20elements.
@biffa - they announced the £30-£50m in September:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MKA/maginito-and-cotec-form-us-joint-venture-xvme5ppoj6ax37o.html