Marstons Share Chat (MARS)

@wiggy
Thanks for imparting this information to us but I fear it will go down like breaking wind in a lift with most posters on this board as they criticise anyone who thinks things might not all be rosy in the Marstons beer garden(s).
I have to say I am not surprised to hear this though, as many high street shops might just as well be closed since they have been allowed to open, the only busy places now allowed to trade seem to be hair salons as so many people need a haircut.
Not many Marstons holders need a hair cut though, most have suffered a severe financial one !

I hope this isn't replicated across the Marstons Estate. I have just come for a quick pint (little castle) on return from a bike ride and its empty, other than 2 people on the fruit machine drinking coffee.

I asked if it had been like this all night, pretty much was the reply.

Over the last several weeks we’ve had many protests with no social distancing and many large gatherings on beaches, but no spike in the infection rate - pointing to us being on a continuing downward trend - the media have to fill their papers with something sensational however. This is good for pubs/restaurants- the mask wearing that comes in on the 24th is both necessary and can wait 10 days apparently, I think this suggests the govt doesn’t want to look as if it overreacted initially, as it really doesn’t make much sense.

No, it isn't

@doze
Clearly you understand the 40% I refer to.
Surely it is better to discuss reality rather than fantasy ?
Or is this forum supposed to say, well done lads, only down another 7% today ?

The SP has gone down, if you are holding barchid you must be hoping for better times? There really is no point in disheartening every holder with the bad news we all know about. Not quite sure what 40% you are on about, we might be raking in our 100% until 3rd quarter finalizing of JV. I am hoping for expanded off trade and home deliveries to all the post covid and post brexit poor buying booze from home when the JV happens. My message to management anyway. The country estate will have to up its game where status as a local well supported hostelry does not apply central support will surely help achieve something especially where location and building permit. I hope so anyway but I am not familiar with any of the estate apart from The Tulip Queen (new motel location) near me which was packed out pre lockdown.

@supercharger
But in the meantime we now need a mask to buy a packet of matches, surely this could be extended to pubs ?
And if/when that happens does pedigree become mongrel ?
A point that is oddly lacking by those posters who give their (guesstimates) of the higher price Mars will be tomorrow, next Friday, next month, even, in one extreme case, 2023 !
Sad as I am to see the shares struggle at present, but at least we are relieved, temporarily, of those who seem to think the moon is the limit without even thinking of the debt mountain which needs to be climbed first, notwithstanding the one item of real value being snapped up by an overseas buyer.
Pitcher & Piano royally failed to make its offer price, nor indeed any perceptible interest shown in it, yet that is/was surely worth rather more than the equivalent number of their pubs showing a severe lack of proper investment ?
But of course, the supermarkets are selling so much of our 40% owned product and are giving us shareholders such a generous price for it we will all do so well !
Doubtless these optimists will be back next time the shares go to 50 (65 by Friday, though which Friday is never mentioned), perhaps they don't realise Good Friday is when the market is closed !

Moderna in final trials to start producing a vaccine. Final test now on 30,000 high risks and if successful their drug will be produced. Appears to be on the back of successful prelim trials.
Sooner or later we will have a breakthrough and some pedigree!

My sharedealing account had a reduced dealing offer on today so added a few cheeky ones. Couldn't resist.

@willywonka
On the face of it what you say makes sense, however with debt the size of Marstons it might not be the intention of the board to have a rights, but they could well be forced to have one by their bankers.
It is as simple as that.

All my money invested here is in the hope of burgeoning off trade sales with home delivery to get maximum return on their JV. It must be a good way forward with mobile adverts on the side of vans all over the country.

I agree with Triump1. it makes absolutely no sense that the director would buy shares if a rights issue was about to happen.
If anything that is a reassurance it will not happen.

@perkylad
If they were the owners of Costa still I would be inclined to agree but didn't they sell them 2 years ago to Coke ?
So premier Inns, Brewers fare, Beefeaters are not too bad to compare the rump Marstons pubs with rooms/motel style lodges now the brewery is no longer in their control.
Where they do not compare to Marstons is their net debt figure though, hence they can buy bargains rather than have to sell them.
That was how I read the point that was being made.
Posters on here that think there is no need for a rights issue clearly have not bothered to look at the accounts too closely, imho.

I agree on some points you make about the JV. However you need to ask yourself where marston's would be if this never happened. No JV is perfect, especially ones under such extreme circumstance. Marston's had very little scope to negotiate given their situation prior of falling sales and climbing debt and serious risk of significant dilution to SH or default on credit.

I'm sure you cannot disagree that the JV was absolutely the right thing to do. Sure they didnt get the best deal but what do you expect given the situation.

As for a rights issue, there is no basis for this happening anytime soon and cant even be dignified as a rumour. Most investors are cognisant in understanding that companies have rights issues at some point in time, stating the obvious doesnt get you brownie points. They are awarded when you can be a little less vague and give us a time basis for such a rights issue. This year? This decade?

I can offer an arguement against a rights issue this year. Why would the directors not buy up the rights issue instead of buying on the open market unless they are mentally impaired? If a rights issue was not done in the last month when SP was materially higher, why would they do one now? Talk of a rights issue this year makes absolutely no sense.

Are not Whitbread primarily the owners of Costa Coffee and Premier Inn? Might be in the same sector but not a reasonable comparator imho.

barchid could put more " flesh on the bones" but am endeavouring to encourage serious investors to do proper research, maybe a lost cause as demonstrated by the abysmal turnout for the JV Vote.

Am currently staying at a Marstons Motel,,,,will report the experience later

@fairdealer
As usual you have hit the nail on the head, when I posted yesterday suggesting a rights issue was likely I did not go into detail with the numbers as I (clearly wrongly) assumed that fellow posters on the site were cogniscant of the MARS financial situation.
The responses to my post were somewhat surprising as there seem to be a significant number of investors here that invest on the basis "this has fallen a long way, bound to go back up soon" and take great umbrage at anyone who does not invest on that basis.
We live and learn eh ?

Posters should consider these facts.
Debt as at 30th September 2019.....c £1.3billion
JV receipt ( Q3).............................,,,,£237m
Debt repayment due 2023.................£350m
JV agreement provides MARS with a proportionate lower share of profits which will be lower than current. There needs to be a 22% increase in joint consolidated profits for Marstons to mark time with current (2019) profits.

Until the BOD announce level of foot fall since re-opening there can be no knowing how Sales are recovering. Anything else is pure speculation.
Others in the sector are prepared for a significant decline in customer traffic. Whitbread who have raised £1billion in a Rights have openly stated sales will remain low for some considerable time. Whitbread's Rights have allowed them to pick up Travelodge who are severely distressed.
The company will require funds to bring back Capital and Enhancement projects cancelled last Summer.
Others in the sector are/have raised funds to support Balance Sheets.

It would be wise for the company to raise funds through a Rights issue before the Annual Accounts are issued in November.

AIMO DYOR

It’s nice for it to finish up for the day! 60 seems a bit of a dream at the minute.. fingers crossed tho!

fingers crossed we see 60s this week

Agreed its just spivs trying to get the price down

Personally I don't see there being a rights issue at all... MARS leadership acted quickly in March and limited Cash Burn to £10 million per month. 3.5 months later and adjusting for a slow restart in July there is approx 40 million lost due to the shutdown.

Now, in Q3 there will be a 237 million windfall which will eventually be used to pay down debts due in 2023 but in the interim one would assume they will hold the cash incase of any further imminent cash burn such as one caused by a second lockdown (which is unlikely IMHO).

Yes capacity is down but the govt have just given all pubs and restaurants a further 15% saving for food etc so although the consumer will still pay full price (apart from during the Aug 50% off scheme) companies like MARS will generate more from food sales. This will last even in the less profitable months as the scheme ends in January 2021.

I see this share being a strong performer in the long term from the current levels and have a moderate holding of a fair few thousand shares. All hospitality stocks tracked down after the speech and they will probably all slowly rise over the next 12-24 months with there being a huge lift once either a vaccine is found or once divis are reinstated.

Not to mention MARS get another 40 million by Sept 2021 should a basket of 5 shares (Britvic, M&B, MARS, AG Barr and C&C) achieve levels they were at on March 5th (in the middle of the CV downturn)... At least that's what I got from the RNS.

All in my opinion and as always do your own research but currently I'm sat in the red not phased happy to ride the long term buying the dips but I don't see this going much further down now we've seen a 40% drop since the 75p high. Good luck all

Couldn't agree more, it's about time all these shorters were put down, far too much damage has been done to good well run ftse companies in the sake of driving down the sp to make a little money.

Oh please try harder for goodness sake do you honestly think that the combined might of JPM/Caz and Numis would come up with a refinancing JV deal with Carlesburg UK and increase lending facilities .....only to have to go to market for a rights issue......Purile deramping to the extreme....the announcements contain big picture cash flow implications which show there is (currently) adequate head room.....its misleading posts like this that suck

Marstons conducted quickly a distribution share agreement with Carlsberg to help sell the beers during the lockdown to improve its sale position when cash flow was non existent from its pubs/hotels during lock down. Now the pubs are re-opening cash flow will return, with projections that many will stay and holiday in the Uk later this year. Once we get a positive statement from the Board on this I see this share will rise very quickly indeed. I do not see the need for a rights issue with the finances in place should in fact the lockdown have got any worse, but it could come if they decided to expand further and make the most of other pubs/breweries businesses that are struggling and ripe for a takeover by them.