The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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Could be something to do with extra dosh available for hospitality sector!
Anyone get the feeling something is afoot? Watching the trades, their is consistent underpinning buying. Should be pressure the other way given the dreaded virus and the political situation, but moving gently positively outperforming market for a few days now.
Are they talking to Carlsberg??
???? Schweppes who??
FD
To follow on from your point 2 re nav, post Findlay and a marking down of assets, that nav is much more likely to be in relation to reality, which even on its own gives some much needed confidence.
Have just returned home, listening to the car radio and Boris's Press conference, I sense we have worse to come. Boris will not commit but Patrick Whitty was quite emphatic regarding get togethers. I will be amazed if PW's words do not impact on the market tomorrow. On another topic, but related to debt, Financial commentators believe, against the increasing inflation rate, the BOE will not move interest rates tomorrow, but come the New Year will make a substantial increase, in comparitive terms.
MARS is between a rock and a hard place, income is going to struggle to maintain the debt reduction AA has promised. Hands are tied in respect of asset disposal.....the JV agreement requires MARS to retain a minimum of 50% of it Pubs. This cannot include Brains as they are subject to along term management agreement.
We cannot turn the clock backwards so looking forward and in the current climate, there at least 2 potential options.
1. Carlsberg buy our 40% of CMBC. I have always believed long term Carlsberg will achieve 100% of the Brewery. It is the way Carlsberg operate.
2. A generous predator comes along .
IMO the SP has not yet reached bottom. The one saving grace is NAV which currently stands at 58p/share. This is something to consider if a buyer!
I'm glad you've had some luck with one of your holdings. Sometimes, a nice little bonus can come from an unexpected source. A nice little early Christmas present for you perhaps?
Especially since MARS turned down 1.05 last year.
Hi Barchid. Yes, you have a point. That said, there's been a development with my SGC holding. It seems that the takeover by NEX may well to through. SP there has gone up.
Trent
My timing seems uncommonly good today, just now City a.m. have announced that Fortress has paid Patron an undisclosed sum for 100% of Punch taverns.
So perhaps we really should be re-evaluating our chances of an approach ?
Again just thinking out loud, but easier to make an approach when they are at a 60p's valuation rather than in the 80p's, for sure.
Trent
I see exactly where you are coming from & it has been a deflating experience seeing a once very decent company over stretch itself. Time can be a great healer, it can, of course, be an expensive option, we have to weigh things up as they affect us all in diferent ways & degrees.
Sorry not to be more cheerful, but these things can turn around when you least expect it which is what I was saying in my earlier mail, meantime they still sell lovely beer....
Hi Barchid. Im not sure what to make of proceedings here at the moment. My patience is beginning to wear thin with the limbo land we find ourselves to be in with Mars. I know the issues with Covid have done the company no favours whatsoever, but I've seen little evidence of adaptability to overcome these issues.
You may well know that I have shares in a company called Fulham Shore, a Pizza/Greek restaurant chain. They too have had the same issues as Mars with closure of outlets etc, but they have shown enough initiative to generate income from home deliveries, reduced admittance to premises when restrictions were lifted etc. Ok, they are a different animal to Marstons, but still, despite Marstons having the off sales from supermarkets to fall back on, I've seen very little from Mars to improve their lot.
I'm going to wait until the Christmas/new year trading figures come out to see what transpires. I hope that these figures are worth waiting for.
Gents
Certainly the back drop for MARS has worsened & we currently now hear no more fiction about "buying the dips", but oddly enough with the share now showing on a d v fn as a downward weekly breakout, now could be about the right time to have a little sniff ?
The hysterical suggestions of it being 10p higher by Friday (every blooming Friday) seem now like a distant memory & with so many of the "it can only go up from here" gang having left, or left licking their wounds, I wonder if the mid to low 60p's could be the time for a sober re-evaluation ?
Debt always was, and still is, the problem. But rates seem likely to stay low so the amount of cash needed to make a bid for the estate is easily able to be raised, consolidation is surely likely in this industry with alcohol use declining amongst the young & the older ones, like me, are a declining market anyway biologically !
Just thinking out loud here but the old saying, it's never as good as it looks & it's never as bad as it looks, could be proven right yet again ?
I've held mars for years but I never know, how they spin it forward. Yes of course maybe they will surprise Me this year
All.shares carry an element of risk don't they ChuChubbyBrown?
It's a big gamble this one
seem to be on the Helter skelter today!!
Ah yes Led Zep! Think we might be buying the wrong set of " stairs " here if we want to get to "heaven".
Jester
In your case Ramble on is most appropriate, thanks for bring it to our attention.
Barchid
Led Zep:
Ramble On https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzGBQerkvWs
Is a bit closer to the mark
Kind Regards
The Original Jimster
Kind regards
The same to you too Barchid, and of course all other regular posters on this board. A pleasant and peaceful Christmas to all. I will be posting on here before the big day. I've just been rekindling my liking of the James Patterson's Alex Cross novels that's why I've not been on here as much of late.
Trent
Very likely you are correct !
Perhaps I was a tad harsh in linking the jester to Elvis, given the ramblings I should have thought of the Stones, Midnight Rambler ?
Either way may I wish you & yours a very happy Christmas, despite our latest regulations.
Nice to see those on cloud Cookoo out in force. Maybe they've started on the Christmas sherry early, working their way up to harder stuff. I fancy them to be on the Egg Nog by the weekend. With any luck, they'll be up to the Hobgoblin Gold by Christmas Eve.
Maybe then, their ramblings might be come mildly amusing.
OK fairdealer
Hard to argue with most of that...consider the word 'Troll' taken back
Keep it coming everyone
Kind Regards
Jimster
Jimster, at least you have the guts to admit being a Trader. Traders in my experience do not tend to care a jot about the future of company's with whom they invest (short term). The "Resident Trolls" as you refer are a tool of your trade as your friend SC has admitted. At least do us the courtesy of acknowledging our background knowledge of MARS. Many of us here are LTH and came in on income (Divs) not short-termism.
We are different and opposing animals. The use of the word, Trolls is a demeaning title which should be replaced with a substantially respectful title.
Are you sure the software is'nt shorting? Do you have a robotics engineer on site. I do not wish to use the term AI as that would be a step to far!!
Can see Arnold (Schartzennger) has a lot to fear!!!