Marstons Share Chat (MARS)

Chatting to UK distro’s today and had great feedback on the ‘Taste the difference’ IPA sales. Pleasantly surprised they branded to the supermarket name but still left the brewers name on main label. Brand reputation is going strong and this is a prime example of supermarket and brewer working together. Tried myself today and can tell which ones they are clearly. Great move MARS this will do well.

Afterall the only reason for the shorts was the closing down process due to the fears of the Pandemic but for a month or two now all / if not most of Marstons outlets have been open. In fact with signing up with Amazon and no doubt other online retailers the possibility is that their sales figs for the past three Months have been increasing on the Ist qtr. So sensibly the shorters who are not stupid have been reducing and no doubt having to buy back or repay their loan stock.

Hi All, regular viewer, new poster.

Interesting to see that both shorters (Citadel and GLG) reduced their short position on 24th), not that suprising for Citadel who have regularly changed position, but GLG have held since March and reduced by 0.19% of company. Hopefully there is a fight to buy back between them.

All property values are subjective and I will leave that to those far more qualified to value than me. I did not buy or inherit shares in the largest Premium Beer Brewer in the Uk to worry about that. I look forward more to the most recent sales figures which will have more of an effect on price and the recovery what with some more positive news such as regarding the suggested distribution Company formation that should make the market recovery rebound positively. We already know the Uks retails figs are back to pre-pandemic levels - and wait in anticipation.
I see Marstons now sell Beer in various forms of outlet it seems :- Pubs.Motels.Wine bars,supermarkets, online and recently Amazon. All bases covered -good on them, one of the great survivors I.M.H.O & a strong buy.buy.buy!!

Does this affect your dealings? In fact those that borrow become richer, those that do not don't where inflation is set to rise and reduced debts in real terms. What is the price of money at the moment? Do you feel at 0% interest or thereabouts this is a problem? I am not distracted the market price for Marstons fell due to the Pandemic and fallen sales, not before the lockdown based on debts owed? Infact I seemed to remember a statement coming out regarding funding was in place to cover Marston's for some considerable time in the future even if the Pandemic lock down continued -which it hasn't.

Supercharge, we have a floating and, it seems, an in determinate number of Pubs, it appears your 2000 count is a spurious figure. We cannot count every corner shop that sells Estrella as you consider it is brewed by Marstons!!!

Against this accountancy nightmare, do you know the level of debt and the various repayment dates. Including temporary facilities?
. Is it likely current sales will provide margin to cover the imminent short term borrowings?

What we need Bar child is a up to date sales figures. i.e. how many Sales have been made after re-opening, we all know the sales were affected after lock down (which is reflected in the current share price fall from over £1. Once we can see the full on sales figs this can be broken down into an analysis of current performance. You cannot guess in this one I am afraid but I am hopefully once released we will have a steep rise in share price whether sales are to their own pubs or to supermarkets. To be honest I have been topping up and am very happy already with my investment and will not be selling in the short term i.e. for the next year or so but look forward to seeing us back over 80 to 100p a share in the shorter term -hopefully!!

Supercharger
I am sure we are all aware that Marstons sell to supermarkets.
However they are supermarkets and pubs are pubs.
Can we keep on subject please ?
I was hoping you might have been happy that I was aware of what is on the Mars website, but now you are saying that they may not know how many pubs they own ?
We are also aware that they supply other pubs which they do not own, but then they do not appear on their balance sheet do they ?
All I am trying to do is to attempt to assess what the plc is worth after liabilities have beeb deducted from assets, and their likely cash flow evaluated
Why should I want the share price to fall ?
I really do not understand where you are coming from. I am supposing that most posters on this board wish to evaluate facts rather than try to puff the share price up or down.

When you own 1400 Pubs/Lodges call them what you will, the total number of Marstons Estate items will change, however so will the total no. supplied by Marstons that they do not own. When I heard Mr Ralph F. speaking on one occasion I am sure he referred to actually over 2,000 pubs being supplied (a brewer does not have to own all their own Pubs they only show the no. on the accounts owned by the Estate). i.e. If you added in all the Supermarkets they supplied in the Uk the Total of outlets would easily exceed 2,000. Who knows the exact no. who cares this is one Company at a big discount at the current time. One I will continue to buy and invest in. Good luck if you want the share price to fall but in less than three months I am sure we will be over £80-1.00 a share. Perhaps Andrew Andrea -can you you the exact no. if you want the accounts to be exact. However their time will be limited at the moment finalising the deal with Carlsberg.

Supercharger
I do indeed consult the Marstons website which says, amongst many other things, that they "own around 1400 pubs".
You, I recall, have mentioned the number of 2000 at least twice.
Where are the other 600 please?
Also has the website been updated since they sold a bunch of them at a loss late last year ?
This board really should be about facts, don't you agree?

My Godfather is I regret no longer with us, he was a Captain in the Army before serving and creating Marstons from a previous Company. However what I have said is the truth in that he was a very upright and straight individual and held the Marstons Board in great esteem. They are a very professional group of individuals. I only quote facts today that I obtain from official sources. You may wish to visit the Marstons web site sometime. However I would very much like to see the sales pick up released from Marstons as I am sure most will be surprised. Lets wait and see but I see tremendous upside here.

Fiona
Thanks for that insight, appreciated.

Phase 2 and the Level of Effort is bigger than we can expect, they will have to create a wider team to support all the requirements of the investigation and can take roughly 24 weeks to complete (unless a discretionary extension is applied by CMA). If P2 arises then I can see this extending over the Q4 period and finishing mid Q1 which is against everyone's wishes. What we do need to ensure is that both parties have done their due diligence and the broker teams have made concrete cases to ensure there are requirements for a 2nd phased investigation. We still have Peel H in the background number crunching too so let's not overlook why they were appointed too. In my opinion, back in 2019, they were consulted heavily on these issues so I guess they have already done their homework on competition rights.

Barchid,

As a point of reference the merger between Tesco and Booker was refered to the CMA on 30th May 2017. Phase 1 concluded 17th July 2017 when CMA determined to launch a Phase 2 investigation. Phase 2 completed 20th December 2017 when CMA allowed the merger to complete.

Fairdealer
Thanks for your clarification which is what I thought the position was, but merger law has always been a bit of a minefield so I am grateful for your thoughts.
One thing is for sure though, once an investigation starts it can take on a life of its own and timelines are v difficult to predict, even more so when it is cross border, as in this case.
Let us hope RF has a plan to find the cash needed to keep MARS going in the meantime, they had discussions with their lenders after the announcement but at that time a referral seemed unlikely, hopefully they will continue to oblige ?

Barchid, my interpretation is, the CMA now have until the 20th October to decide whether or not the Case should escalate to stage 2. If it goes to stage 2 the process can last some months.
Hope Fiona can concur, add or correct that understanding.

The first stage process allows interested parties to make formal representations as to the merits or not of the JV . One can be sure CAMRA will make representations ( what weight that will have is questionable). It will be highly surprising if small and medium sized Brewers do not make representations as some will feel their retail outlets may be at risk.
As mentioned by others, it is very possible other International brewers will want to protect their UK market and lobby the CMA accordingly. There are likely to be other suppliers to both Marstons and Carlsberg , who will make representations, both positive and negative.

Any thought it is a "box-ticking" exercise is misrepresenting the process and should be ignored.

Fiona/Fairdealer
Just to clarify, there has been much comment re box ticking etc re the late response by Mars to CMA, but the fundamental fact is that the CMA, since last week, are now investigating the proposed JV and the deadline for their phase 1 decision is 20 Oct ?
Thus any hopes of the JV going through in September are misfounded and the investigation can take rather longer even after phase 1 ?
That is my understanding and would be delighted to learn that it is a misunderstanding, but if it is correct this surely leaves MARS exposed financially as the dash for the JV they were expecting shortly will be delayed ?
Please advise

Supercharger was it the Former Company Secretary who told you Marstons have 2000 pubs?

I stand by my last words, people need to make their own minds by looking at the official web site of Marstons rather than listen to people using hearsay to get a lower share price entry point. My God father used to be Marstons Company secretary and I can tell you he was the straightest man I know and he worked to military precision and so I do not expect any foul play here at all. If there was any adverse news at all Marstons would as under LSE rules need to disclose it. Good luck to those who have faith the the Marston's and Carlsberg Management teams I see this as a very shrewd move at the current time to help Marstons distribute before and post Brexit.

Rick you have quoted the words of CMA which is correct.

The only assumption I have made, as have others, this dilatory approach reflects badly on our Execs.
Carlsberg have complied and as stated earlier, what are they thinking?

Fairdealer, The following I quote from the CMA document - "Marston’s has, therefore, failed (with or without a reasonable excuse) to comply with a requirement of a notice under section 109 of the Act.".

It would appear you are of the assumption that there was 'No reasonable excuse' for the delay?

We have completed and returned the CMA JV questions. Nothing of any substance, looks like a tick box exercise.

So bear with me here. Marston's have now complied and transferred the relevant documentation and that is why the Notice of Termination has been issued. Further, we are awaiting a decision on the 20th of October? Am I understanding this correctly?

updated notice.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5f3f8ef1d3bf7f3928eb5a97/Marston_s_-_Notice_of_termination_of_extension_-_20082020_WEB_TEAM.pdf

Ignore the CMA's Notice of Extension, due to Marston's non-compliance to supply certain documents and information, at your peril.
Supercharger stop trying to create diversions, concentrate on what's happening now.