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they said june not specifying a date... i was set for May- they seems to cover odd periods, there was a 16 week updated in jan...
so i think the update will give a view of trading to date.. ie october to may
Are interim results announced this month? What date? Was it delayed from March
trent that is a fair point, however and depending on a Franchisees agreement, it would be unusual to allow more than a certain% of beer to come from other sources, i.e Guest beers.
That said isn't it reasonable to expect Marstons to give some guidance to it'e outlets in order to maximize sales?
Well it wasn't wrong to cut my holding back at the time, so if you think it is an odd thing to do, ie visiting companies you invest in, afraid to say I view it as part of DYOR
@fairdealer that was for. D'oh
@tiebreaker I'm guessing of course, but if there are self employed franchisee landlords that are simply tied to Marston's for stock, would that not entitle them to use their discretion and possibly conducting take away or "dial out" for delivery of beers, possibly food?
If that is the case I wonder why there are those that have not done so?
In July paying towards furlough will be optional. Employers though can take the opportunity to bring people back part time as long as they pay for those part time hours. The rest of the salary can still be furloughed. This is great as originally this was meant to be from August. This hints at beer gardens being able to trade in July and pubs being able to be shrewd with staff costs. I think there are much worse industry’s to be in post Covid. With air travel limited this could be a strong bounce in mid summer. Up until October staff costs will still be very low as the equivalent of only 5% of staff costs would have been expected to be paid out on average over the term of furlough. Dyor imho
London tends to be a different market too the rest of the Country. Marstons have a smaller exposure in the South East than some Brewing groups.
The quality and consistency of food and service does vary from location to location. I have on occasions made comments to HQ ( Wolverhampton) where standards have fallen below what customers are entitled to expect.
It should be of concern to read Leppington's experience that the company have not issued guidance to Landlords of how they can operate given the restrictions.
It would be good to hear from other Landlords to know their experience?
Barchid, a trial of food in pubs is the reason you cut your holding? ever been to a JDW and eaten? Not sure where you live but in London, erm its not gourmet, but in summer the pubs are packed, both in the city and suburbs.. a whiff of heat and the booze flys.
Hold and buy if you ask me. Some good upside here to come. Any whiff of a confimed outside area re opening or indeed the gvt mentioning we are at level 3 not 4 will
Send this north imho, silly to sell now dyor
I think as the summer months keep coming with the good weather we will see a nice decline in COVID. Hopefully pubs and other hospitality establishments should start to reopen. I am hoping for a good amount of relaxation for the August BH. I'd be very cautious towards the back of Sep. If we see a cooler September and then as October comes around we may find a rise in COVID again which will trash the SP.
Overall: Weak buy or hold for now - anticipate a good rise on the already nice SP as the virus diminishes and pubs start to reopen. Then sell or hold at your own risk into the winter and hope we don't get a resurgence of the virus. If it does come back and we go back into lockdown - we can always buy back in at a sweet low SP (not that I'd wish that on humanity of course - I hope its over soon and our lives return to normality with healthier portfolios!)
Bar hold, Admiral or New River will be very interested in their tenanted and leased estate, which if Marston’s want to focus on Retail (I.e Their managed and franchise style pubs), would be a good option.
A very reasonable summation of the position
I would go a little further in that the jewel (brewing) has been sold off to support the pub estate. Personally I would have preferred it the other way round but then who wants a string of often scruffy and run down boozers ? I think a lot of new shareholders posting on this board should apply for the "privileged" card available (or was until recently) to shareholders, it does not lower the price of drinks but it does of food. Then they do a bit of cut price dyor to see what they think of the food.
I did and after a few visits I cut my holding sharply, there is really little consistency in the various offers other than for various reasons they go into the "don't return" column !
In short they are/were a great brewer but not a great publican, imho.
The furlough scheme changes in July & August companies will then be expected to contribute if the hospitality industry isn't open by then how will this work? I can't see how the industry will survive!
Plenty of news coming over the next few weeks.....DYOR
shazabo i decided to hold onto my shares as i did some more research to make me satisfied that marstons will do well in the near future and long term should be good:)
Id be happy if we lost a bit of the volatility and maintained around 65 pence..
Any price predictions for this week/ end of week?
A lot of buys in the 62.6 range. Paid off for them already
Weekend is always an opportunity for retail investors to catch up news etc.. Martson's has been in a lof news/ investor articles recently, suggesting what a genuinely great deal the JV was.
Why would this be?
18palmerc, did you hang fire or bail? I said if the ftse was up this will be up as Fridays downwards trend was for a similar reason
faidealer Id agree on the divi and reducing debt pile. american airlines did millions of share buybacks a similar way to return share holder value, ignoring the massive debt pile.
if this is truly the end of COVID then as per the Bank of England's guidance, we should see a v shaped recovery..
As for the chancellors words- i dont pay too much attention to the politicians. and im a central govt consultant :). they also planned for herd immunity when covid first came out...Bear in mind Rishi was drafted in at short notice as he plays ball- he was a junior minister. Hes saying what he thinks he needs to keep people aware to the worst case scenario.
But its naive of him to suggest a huge recession here when no data supports that and the BofE has said we will have a V shaped recovery. Recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP. so Q2 and yes Q3...
however, if covid persists into a second wave then yes this becomes a genuine recession not an 'event' related one.
My approach is invest in the longer term opportunity, but to maintain more cash than investments at the current time.
adg good to see you have done some research which should show a level of consistency. Some of us who enjoyed a good dividend return highlighted sometime ago the wisdom to pay such a high div when the debt pile had grown. The group had increased greater debt with the aquistitions, particularly the Charles Wells deal. Now regrettably events have caught up with Marstons. The deal with Carlsberg is a God-send and will at least enable the company to reduce debt. Even though the JV does have benefits, I make no secret of concerns a Major partner may inflict on the Junior. Hope those thoughts prove wrong....only time will tell.
The full effects of the pandemic is yet to emerge, What is clear many Business sectors will struggle to survive, some will disappear, the upshot being huge unemployment and consequential diminished disposable income.
All the unknowns, it is impossible to predict when Marstons will return to a level of profits which allow a return to the dividend list. Even then and with deposit rates remaining at or close to Zero, dividends generally will not return quickly.
I disagree, recession is imminent, even the Chancellor is preparing us for very troubling economic times. In his words far worse than anything seen for decades.
One of my businesses was in the Cider Industry, am still connected to a minor extent, and have a number of contacts in both Cider and Beer production.
It is already estimated National debt has grown by £300billion and likely to approach 600 by the end of October.
Your prediction of £1-1.20 within a year would be very welcome, however caution is suggested.
Faidealer Ive read through quite a few of your posts, and I do appreciate your position as a LTH.. especially seeing this board with lots of people talking about big numbers only to disappear.. you also made reference to delivery orders.. assume you are in the brewery business yourself?
Personally I would be more than happy to see this slowly get back to a price of £1-1.20 over the next 6- 12 months.. Im quite practiced in my research- mainly on a fundamental basis. I think the opportunity is a good one here. not withstanding macro considerations.
18 p. what is your timeframe? speak to anyone you know... theyre all dying to get out right?! have pint in their local, have a nice meal. Getting on flight will be a pain in the a55. this lockdown makes you appreciate what you have.. and as it stand the lockdown has not materially effected peoples pockets.. this is an event not a recession.. so all things considered i believe we'll see massive spike in sales...but as for the share price.. it may take a bit of time to get over a £1.
And yes I know fairdealer.. we will have to pay the money back.. but i dont think anyone can say when and how that will materialise.. National debt has been high for a long time...
Leppington has vested interest, that pubs should recover. His previous posts should be read as some of the issues facing CMBC should be considered. It is alarming to read Landlords have not been advised/consulted.