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This link shows the phenomenal growth of KPOP globally. Plus 3 of the acts at the kpopflex festival are in the top 20 on this list. There’s a massive demand for KPOP outside Korea. That’s good for streaming and attracting sponsorship.
https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/insights/2021/kpop-sets-another-record-on-twitter-with-7-billion-tweets-in-a-year
This article shows that KPOP is very popular globally. Those 100% streaming rights (ex Korea) will attract fans in Asia, Middle East, Europe, USA and South America. Streaming offers not just the opportunity to,scale up beyond the festival stadium, it will also attract sponsorship for the global reach too
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/leisure/entertainment/2021/08/10/top-20-countries-where-k-pop-is-most-tweeted/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=zcdWzFxqA.jFxXkpmod7zwdcTr2Va.R7ZFW2rQUBIig-1642542564-0-gaNycGzNBxE
This is a good article.
I do believe in the future the online paid sub for a concert will gather momentum.
I look forward to what LVCG do after this Frankfurt concert - if it is the success we hope how do they replicate it and grow this type of revenue stream.
https://www.bandwagon.asia/articles/here-is-the-future-of-music-monetized-livestreams-covid-19
good article on live streaming
one show was charged at $1 to $3 with another at $16.99
yes, when it was made available free on Youtube.
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20210418000078
BTS had over 2.3 million concurrent streaming viewers for this one
The demand and reach for live streaming kpop is increasing. Its the new way for fans to see their favourite acts. And its clear that the fans will think nothing if splashing out $29.99. Have a look at how much the light sticks sell for.
https://www.kpopstarz.com/articles/295184/20201012/bts-online-concert-almost-reached-1million-viewers-from-191-countries-approximately-50-billion-won-sales.htm
There goes the drop it never holds
It's fine to agree to disagree. My take is that getting people to pay the subscription won't be very high outside Korea - it will be higher in Korea.
People getting old content on Youtube after the event for free will be much more appealing.
There may be legions of fans but you need 100,000 live subs outside of Korea to get a $3M gross revenue at $29.99 a pop. I can't imagine that at all.
Not sure that makes sense. Only 44,000 can get to the festival. These acts have more than 40 million social media followers around the globe who will all be interested in looking at a live concert for 7 KPOP bands. Dosen’t matter where the festival is being held IMO.
If you look at streaming providers, they have prices for both live streaming of festivals and the ability to stream again for a set period. That charge is in the region of $29.99 per subscriber, so it’s not going to take a lot of subscribers to make a massive difference to the revenue here. The streaming revenue is going to be very significant IMO.
That's 2019 and Youtube.
Not the same thing as a stream for a live concert far away from the Korean homeland.
If you have a concert in Korea then more streaming will be outside of Korea, if you have a KPOP concert in Europe then the home Korean market will need to stream....
Only 10% of kpop views come from South Korea
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106704/south-korea-kpop-youtube-views-by-country/
Hi Thereshegoes - it was LoB who gave the £2-£3M streaming estimate I was responding to.
Let's hope you're right of course - that would be beautiful. Your last point is very valid - movement is going to be about restoring sentiment, so the nature and frequency of the right RNS will be key.
I didnt say 2-3m in Streaming. I said all in. Ticket sales, merchandising, streaming etc.
I honestly dont feel Covid will be an issue in May. Look at how cases are falling rapidly in the UK, with very few people getting really sick with Omicron. Mainstream Media did a great job of scaring people but that will die off soon!
Finally, I am not necessarily saying we will hit 60p, rather that this is a realistic price of where this should be year end. It may not get there of course for the same reasons we are stuck below 4p. Sentiment needs to be restored in a major way. If that happens it is possible on fundamentals rather than ramping!
The way that AIM operates, it’s likely that more will see value at a higher share price than at this ridiculously undervalued level :-)
I think we agree mostly MB10 - it's just the overly optimistic idea (in my opinion only of course) that we'll see 60p.
What we can all agree on is that even 10p from here would be a massive leap, but this company is undervalued by a long way and so upward movement is very, very likely.
All valid points bennster, but worth looking at the KPOP followings of the 4 acts already signed. All of them are big in the USA, Europe and the Middle East, which means the streaming revenues could be considerable outside of Korea.
There’s no question IMO that lvcg are headed to make an actual profit this year based on a single KPOP festival. A 2nd and 3rd festival would add to that very significantly and provide recurring revenue. That signals a massive turnaround for shareholders.
The sector a average P/E ratio is 47, so even at a conservative P/E ratio, a market cap of £50 million plus is not inconceivable.
I wouldn't come here with an absolute price prediction because I wouldn't be 100% certain - nobody can be which is why I rail against anybody else doing it.
I will go this far: I own 500,000 here and I WILL be de-risking when this goes past 10p, which I am certain it will at some point this year. This is because I don't agree with your numbers:
For example - your estimates on streaming are (in my opinion only) far too high. Yes, I can see the concert getting a £2-£3M streaming revenue, but you must remember the vast majority of that will be in Korea - LVCG have the worldwide streaming rights OUTSIDE Korea...
Somebody posted a link to a $10M stream from Feb 21 as an example of what could be, but they forgot that was a closed concert so the stream was the only outlet - this concert has a live audience. Also the stream alluded to was mostly in Korea.
Your numbers also factor in zero risk for another COVID issue, or a band cancelling, or a host of other issues that could go the other way.
I absolutely agree it's not going to get there in a straight line for reasons you give but my view it is the current share price that is ridiculous rather than my target. Sub 4p is crazy! If you think that's mad, what is your target price and justification ?
I was being deliberately conservative on revenue streams :-)
There she goes, you figures are conservative for kpop. We get a £200k fee and I expect merchandising (on line and at the festival) and streaming to exceed £2-£3m. Another festival and double all these figures.
We also get £300k for formula E plus income from bike races, covid vaccination centres and boat race in 23.
And bricklive should have a record year
Now that post made me laugh!
A post that starts with - "it does make me wonder how people get to their SP predictions" then pronounces 60p this year!!
We all want it to go there - that would be me set for life, but we have to be realistic - once this starts to move then traders will be in and out - the blind rampers will pile in then we'll get all sorts of volatility.
We all want the same thing but let's keep it real. If this gets to 60p this year I'll be the first to bow to your sage like wisdom! ;-)
Whilst I realise there are overhangs to overcome but it does make me wonder how people get to their SP predictions - normally new holders with very low averages, looking for 10p or 15p etc.
Of course there would be very nice profit levels if you are lucky enough to get in at 5p or lower but look at the revenue LVCG is now bringing in!
It is more than possible that Bricklive tours, along with the Cycle ride and Formula E retainer will cover the entire operating costs for LVCG.
KPop ticket sales alone will add £500k . Add merchandising (onsite and online) and streaming revenue and this should easily get to £2-£3m PROFIT. Very strong rumours of at least one more festival this year too. But let's say total revenue comes in at £4m.
On a pretty average P/E of 20, this would put the MCap at £80m or 16 x the current SP ( circa 60p ).
IMO, this is what the company should be looking at this year. More if a third KPop event is added and even more if Live Nation start sniffing.
And all this without looking at future revenues, such as Formula E in its entirety in 2023
Sell out at 10p if you wish. Taking a profit is never wrong but I honestly feel this could be the share of the year and could easily be back over historical highs with a fair wind!