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Yep ! Agreed E-AL .
Just common sense .
Posters " paid " to write on here, seriously would you pay any of the contributors ? Lot of tosh imo .
“ If I was a canny CEO who cared about my SP I would wait until the seller was finished. before releasing any big news.”
I absolutely agree Harts .. a couple of months ago I emailed MD of one of the O&G AIM listed companies and im his reply he mentioned the following : “we always try to “maximize the value and timing of our update to the market.”
I bought in after the funding announcement so well under water even after averaging down ... the way I see it ...
Baron Capital Group are now under the 3% reporting but still continue to sell, NOT Baron the Twitter investor. It took them 11 days to reduce from 4.64% to 2.8% and they continue to sell and hold the SP down. So for them to be completely out and depending on volumes I've calculated a rough estimate that they should be finished around Monday the 3rd Feb. If I was a canny CEO who cared about my SP I would wait until the seller was finished. before releasing any big news. Only downside I see from here is the small risk of a placing but selling stake in OPL 310 seems much more likely.
Alcira, you did well to average down from 70p to 6p. I bought in after the fake funding RNS (super annoying) and am also averaged down. Shame I didn't buy in at these levels. I believe this is the prime time to buy in and they will either obtain their funding or profit on selling their interest. 7m in and more on the way...
yes this could correct in a big way. its a case of the fear factor disappearing.
It took Lekoil over seven years and some £75 million to bring the Otakikpo marginal field on stream
And now we are seeing the benefits the price has crashed. I agree best not to go back in time and invest in this 7 years ago but what you have said just highlights what a bargain this is at the moment. Regarding time scales, the projects are moving ahead with or without LEK. Should the funding be secured in the near term we will have a solid stake in a world class producing asset, if not theres a big payday on the sale.
Alcira , understand and appreciate your view, sorry to hear that you got caught at 70p, you raise some good points.
You could argue that now though is a prime time to invest as the 75M, 5 years for Otakikpo to reach production has been done, so now producing circa 2300 bopd 7M revenue for the company based on one month January 2020,
With the increased production and joint venture now planning 8000 bopd for Lek so multiplying the output and potential revenue x 3, this could be ‘transformational’ for Lek for a 68M investment required for the JV sounds in principle a reasonable investment.
Understand your views on bringing into production, you mention 310 and the costs, time, Lek have paid for the license in Nov for 3 years , also paid 13M for Afren share 22% being worked on on the farm in, potential as you know 232million barrels of oil P50 to Lek
They would not lose the asset but reduce the stake or sell in completion , the question is , if that happened what price would someone pay for the 232mmb p50 which is Lek 17 % (plus the additional disputed 22%) , would that affect the share price ?
325 is a monster 5067 million barrels of oil, potential, clearly as you stated takes many years of investment and collaboration, Lek have 62% stake, although not in production but identified, clearly there is value in having a 62% in such an asset, again you take a guess at the value someone may pay.
So I would always suggest to new investors to do their own research , take a 360 view and opinions , never invest more than you can afford to lose and if the above looks attractive then invest on their terms.
The debt was 19M, with 7M due soon , another 7m due in 4-6 weeks you can see why Otakikpo is a solid foundation for Lek , if they secure the 68M which produces 7M in one month and potential 20M if you used the same metrics on the new JV
So not ramping just my view, all depends if they can secure finance , with two new non execs and a new cfo.
Who knows but it is exciting ..
Very sorry to hear about your loss, as you probably know this is AIM and over 70% companies suffer from substantial loss in the value of their share price after being listed on the exchange.
I 've been through the same with Angus Energy, the only difference was BOD deliberately lied to shareholders on several occasions over the past two years which resulted in the share price losing over 95% of its value :/
Anyway, I appreciate what you said about Africa and all the money needed at the time to bring Otakikpo to production but thats in the past now and unfortunately it happened on the expense of LTHs ........
The site is up and running now and it is generating a decent stream of cash to the company, yesterday the company confirmed the 1st oil lifting for this year for a total of $7m and its expecting another $7m in 4-6 weeks time, the total of these two figures is almost equivalent to 80% of the company's current MCap !! and if you take into account the value of all other appraisal assets in LEKOIL's portfolio (appraisal not exploration!!) then the share price should be multiples where we are now.
I appreciate the financial challenges in securing funds for OPL 310 but LEKOIL has a sufficient time now to sort out this and if they couldn't get the fund by July 2020 for any reason then as they said in a previous RNS : "failure to make this payment on time may result in Lekoil and Optimum jointly seeking, and agreeing on, a willing buyer to whom the transfer of Lekoil's 17.14% participating interest in OPL 310, as well as all the financial obligations related to OPL 310, can be made. "
So they'll get back the money which they paid for 310 and probably with a nice profit.
In my opinion whoever investing at this ridiculously cheap sp level counts as a "bottom feeder" & will benefit from inevitable sp recovery. Unfortunately LTHs holdings above 10p will need to wait for the company to secure funds for 310 or a new player to join the JV to see their money back.
Well your right there! This dog certainly caught me - circa 5 years ago bought @70 pence a share - averaged down and diluted to 6 pence a share. Sold my holdings before Xmas around 4 pence a share.
All those ramping this company, should bear in mind...…. It took Lekoil over seven years and some £75 million to bring the Otakikpo marginal field on stream. How long and how much, assuming that the company can raise the borrowings, to bring these other 'world class assets', drilling in one of the most, inhospitable and dangerous places in the world, into play?
Its a huge risk for anyone to invest unless they can afford to loose their shirt.
Likewise for me Amers , my comments are based on my research.
Don’t get paid to post that for sure ,
Just think this is one of those shares that will catch people out quite sudden, you can wait until the RNS of course it is everyone’s choice. But I sincerely hope people make money and their lives easier.
Not ramping others but have a feeling of these depressed shares will come good, Lek is one , as you know Amers , Metro , unusual trading today would you say , is another imo.
Expecting Lek RNS this week just a gut feeling I may be wrong.
Fingers crossed Danker, I think plenty of imminent updates in the way, yesterday's rns was very encouraging and should have given us all peace of mind on the future of Otakikpo, LekOil's PRODUCING asset!
Amers, if you were referring to me in your post then could you please clarify what piece of information which I shared on here wasn't true? The details in my previous post were taken straight from the company's website !!
Amers,,, probably be more useful to say which posters you know are paid to post and which ones are dis honest..
and perhaps also why you would or wouldn't invest here.
I know quite unbelievable, when the selling drys up from the ii. Then it is time.
Also 310 LEK paid 13Million for 22% yet to be worked out
Next RNS imo is the debt equity finance for $68M required by Lek (all parties need to raise 170M in total) for Otakikpo JV
Then as Lek Oil state this will treble production in Otakikpo ‘transformational’ is the words they use, to 20000 bopd , 8000bopd for Lek , (who are due 7m for 2344 barrels and another in 4-6 weeks) so significant cash flow improvement circa $20M per month (4-6 weeks) as opposed to $7M, on debt equity finance.
Last RNS states update project update ‘shortly’ whatever shortly is, but normally Lek are prompt at responding. ( exclude the fook up !)
All about the finance now as we all know
New CFO not announced although on LinkedIn
New two non execs
Why would these kind of high profile people join little 16Mcap Lek.
Patience , although frustrating,
Dave pls pls don't be too impressed by what posters have been posting here and tie you hard earn money. DYOR. Posters here are not all honest and some are paid to post. Be very careful.
Oops can't spell
Thanks for the information, I hadn't realised the future prosperity was so immense.
Could make a bigger impact than Petral resources in last few days!
I just cant wait for Baron to bugger off, honestly selling at 3p is an insult to a company like LekOil with an outstanding portfolio of assets:
1- PRODUCING asset : OTAKIKPO MARGINAL FIELD :Reserve Estimates resources estimated at 48.6 mmbbls : (LEKOIL: 40% interest)
2- Appraisal asset : OPL 310 Ogo field gross recoverable resources identified as 774 mmboe (P50) 774mmboe (LEKOIL: 17.14% interest)
3- Appraisal asset : OPL 276 (LEKOIL: 45% interest) : Based on data from the four wells, of gross recoverable volumes of 29 million barrels of oil and 333 Bcf of gas, with upside of 33 million barrels of oil and 476 Bcf of gas (recoverable).
4-Exploration asset – known basins OPL 325 (LEKOIL: 62% interest) : Based on an independent study commissioned by LEKOIL, suggests oil in place volumes of up to 5.7 billion barrels with an estimated 2 billion barrels recoverable based on analogues.
*mmbbls : Millions of Barrels of crude oil
mmboe : million barrels of crude oil equivalent
Many listed company with only "exploration asset(s)" in their portfolio has multiple times LekOil's current Mcap which doesnt make any sense!
No more TR1s once 3% has been breached. So if they sell down to 2.99 thats the last TR1 you would see.
Assume Baron are still selling? Now that they are below 3% I guess we won’t get any more notifications? Could already be out.