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If it wasn't for all the capex involved with this move I think KMR would be sat on a healthy cash balance covid or no covid, it can't be overlooked that this move when completed should put us in a very favourable position, the risk involved in undertaking this move I would of thought will be a drag on the sp until completed.
I can't see ii going all in at the minute just in case it all goes pear shaped, this move will be watched with interest by many until completed, it's only then that I am expecting some fireworks.
All in my opinion by the way, and upto now given covid I can't see what more the management could do to improve things.
Observantken - I do not intend to enter a "war of words" with you. Surely a reasonable individual who felt that a comment made by another may be "potentially misleading" should further enquire of the individual rather than "pointing out to users of this board" an irrelevant statement to the effect that actual "realised prices are usually very far from the list prices." I would ask you upon what evidence you base that statement which is relevant to KMR? Have you examined their price list? Are you aware that such a price list exists? I would venture to suggest that you have not and therefore your observation is groundless. I am not convinced that you have any first hand experience of negotiating supply agreements outside of your local supermarket. The fact that you believe that your statement was relevant and worthy of being published with or without caveats hints at arrogance. That you should then suggest that the original author to whom you addressed your comments, not the general public (the users of this board) as you now claim, should do his own research is totally unworthy. An honest poster would not have to rely upon a caveat or the exhortation you adopted. Your comments speak for you. End of conversation, I do not have the time to waste.
My initial ‘not good’ comment appears to have caused some unintended angst. KMR are battling through and there is no criticism on my part. The basic fact is that Corvid 19 and it’s consequences are not good.
The update cannot be considered good. Expected production for the year has dropped by 100kt, so revenue will be down by 25-30M.
Power lines and HMC pipelines are delayed. Risk of further delays. Mitigation costs 10M.
Interim dividend is 20% of profits. This will be nominal at best this autumn.
Gross debt up. KMR refinanced at end of last year. Smart move not recognised by all at the time.
I remain cup half full. 6 months of muddling through will be forgotten in time. I am having fun investing elsewhere at present as have high hopes with a couple of crackers. As soon as I free up some cash I will accumulate more once again, at these levels or lower. Think I can afford to wait a bit longer to see how this all develops as my view is the risk is to the downside at present.
Sagacityrules, you cannot possibly know how long I have been invested in Kenmare, which rather reveals the limit of your intellect. Why would anyone lie about this, and what is the point in challenging such a claim? This board is for people to express their views and insights. No one is forcing you to accept mine. Greeno makes many good posts, but the one I responded to was potentially misleading. I was merely pointing out to users of this board that realised prices are usually very far from the list prices. I am sure that Greeno realised that I was not advising him to do research but for any other readers who are interested in the current market situation. You tell me to not post with or without caveats, which is why honest posters use the term 'dyor', reminding users of this board not to accept anything posted as fact. The tone of your post leads me to believe that you are likely another one of the company's paid posters. Today's update makes it perfectly clear that the H1 results will not be good, so it seems pointless to argue otherwise.
I suspect ObservantKen is in fact Lazarus himself. He may well be another Ken in disguise.
For me, today’s announcement was better than expected. The impact on demand is clear (negative) but it will take time for the true supply impact to come to light. I am hopeful that Kenmare will be a net beneficiary of the pandemic, when compared to other producers located in more densely populated areas, however time will tell.
The management team, may, need some credit for securing solid off take agreements but again only time will tell and they were sensible putting the additional debt in place.
I bought more today.
Observant(?)ken - I am not sure how long you have been invested here. Not long from my memory, but then my memory is not what it was. I am of the view that your suggestion to another poster who has been a shareholder here for a substantially longer period than you that he should do his own research is unwarranted and, frankly, insulting. The fruits of your research and the conclusions you have suggested are staggering in their naivety. Covid 19 is worldwide and Moz is equally likely to be affected as anywhere else in the World. Similarly, KMR. That the additional costs are as low as they are and the time lost as little, is a relief. To describe the update as being "Not a good update" demonstrates why you need to rely upon the research of others as evidently you are incapable of interpreting your own. I believe you owe Greeno and apology, but that is for you to decide. As for the "jam", I suggest you should first buy a loaf of bread to make the toast, but do your own cooking. Ihope that when you view the report of the profit contribution from H1 you may come to a different conclusion. But please do not place any reliance on my observation, do your own research and don't post your thoughts with or without caveats. The inclusion of an exhortation to "dyor" erodes the little credibility you command.
So, Covid is increasing the cost of the WCB project by more than $10m. And operating costs will not be coming down (as promised) well into 2021 due to having to truck HMC from Pilvili to the mineral separation plant. At this rate we won't be receiving the jam until 2022, if ever. Not a good update, really.